Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynaklarının Belirsizlik Altında Değerlendirilmesi İçin Bir Hibrit Çok Kriterli Analiz Yaklaşımı

Öz

Yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının değerlendirilmesi, birden çok kriterin dikkate alınması ve bir araya getirilmesi ile bunlarla ilgili uygun verilerin kullanılmasını gerektiren kritik ve karmaşık bir süreçtir. Bu çalışma, yenilenebilir enerji alternatiflerinin genel değerlendirmesi için bir simülasyon tabanlı çok kriterli karar modeli sunmaktadır. Bu model verilerdeki belirsizlik ve değişkenliği daha iyi temsil edebilmek için Monte Carlo simülasyon tekniğini Gri İlişkisel Analiz (GİA) yöntemiyle bütünleştirmektedir. Simülasyon tabanlı GİA yöntemi, yenilenebilir enerji alternatifleri olan güneş, rüzgar, hidroelektrik, biyokütle ve jeotermal enerjinin sıralamasında kullanılmaktadır. Önerilen modelin etkinliği ve uygulanabilirliği, 5 yenilenebilir enerji alternatifinin 12 kritere göre değerlendirildiği bir uygulama ile de gösterilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yenilenebilir Enerji,Çok Kriterli Değerlendirme,Gri İlişkisel Analiz,Simülasyon

A Hybrid Multi-Criteria Analysis Approach for the Assessment of Renewable Energy Resources Under Uncertainty

Abstract

Evaluation of renewable energy resources is a critical and complex process which requires the assessment and aggregation of multiple criteria and also the usage of appropriate data related to them. This study presents a simulation based multi-criteria model for the general evaluation of renewable energy alternatives. This model integrates Monte Carlo simulation technique with Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) method to be able to represent the variability and the uncertainty inherent in the data. Simulation based GRA method is used for ranking the renewable energy alternatives which are solar, wind, hydroelectric, biomass and geothermal energy. The effectiveness and the applicability of the proposed model is also illustrated with an application in which 5 renewable energy alternatives are evaluated according to 12 criteria.

Keywords

• Renewable Energy,Multiple Criteria Evaluation,Grey Relational Analysis,Simulation

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