From al-Qaeda in Iraq to Islamic State: The Story of Insurgency in Iraq and Syria in 2003-2015

Year 2015, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 1 - 32, 26.12.2015

Tomáš Kaválek

Abstract

Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS) currently controls vast territories in Iraq and Syria with estimated population up to 5 million people. In June 2014, ISIS made a move to conquer Sunni areas of Iraq in provinces like Ninawa, Salah ad-Din, and al-Anbar. Until May 2015, there had been no significant military success combating ISIS. This paper argues that renewed Sunni insurgency in Iraq was indeed brewing for several years. ISIS campaign is described within the framework of the concept of insurgency. The text provides a comprehensive narrative of ISIS’ and its organizational predecessors’ insurgency in Iraq and Syria in the period of 2003-2015. As a conceptual background it utilizes a lifespan of insurgencies that argues that each insurgency must pass from proto-insurgency to large scale insurgency phase, and finally to a “conventional stage” when insurgency is strong enough to meet counterinsurgent in open battlefield. A lifespan of ISIS insurgency indeed reached tipping point and entered “conventional stage” in June 2014 when it assumed control over key Sunni areas of Iraq.

Keywords

Abu Bakr al-Bahdadi, Abu Mus’ab az-Zarqawi, al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI, insurgency, Islamic State, IS, ISIS, Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham

References

• Jessica Lewis, "The Islamic State of Iraq Returns to Diyala," Institute for the Study of War, April 2014, accessed May 27, 2015, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Lewis-Diyala.pdf.
• Bill Roggio, “The Rump Islamic Emirate of Iraq,” The Long War Journal, October 16, 2006, accessed May 27, 2015, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2006/10/the_rump_islamic_emi.php#.
• “ISI Confirms That Jabhat Al-Nusra Is Its Extension In Syria, Declares 'Islamic State Of Iraq And Al-Sham' As New Name Of Merged Group,” MEMRI, April 8, 2013, accessed May 27, 2015, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/7119.htm.
• Liz Sly, “Al-Qaeda force captures Fallujah amid rise in violence in Iraq,” Washington Post, January 24, 2014, accessed May 27, 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/al-qaeda-force-captures-fallujah-amid-rise-in-violence-in-iraq/2014/01/03/8abaeb2a-74aa-11e3-8def-a33011492df2_story.html.
• Martin Chulov, Fazel Hawrami, and Spencer Ackerman, “Iraq army capitulates to Isis militants in four cities,” Guardian, June 12, 2014, accessed May 27, 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/11/mosul-isis-gunmen-middle-east-states.
• Aaaron Y. Zelin, and Phillip Smyth, “The Vocabulaty of Sectarianism,” Foreign Policy, January 29, 2014, accessed May 27, 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/01/29/the-vocabulary-of-sectarianism/.
• Abu Mohammad al-‘Adnani, “This is the Promise of Allah,” June 19, 2014, 8, accessed May 27, 2015, http://triceratops.brynmawr.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10066/14242/ADN20140629.pdf?sequence=1.
• Robin Wright, “A Victory in Kobani?,” New Yorker, January 27, 2015, accessed May 27, 2015, http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/victory-kobani
• On precise composition of actors and their scope of contribution in Operation Inherent Resolve (commonly know as anti-ISIS Coalition) see US Central Command, “Counter-ISIL military coalition concludes operational planning conference,”May 1, 2015, accessed May 31, 2015, http://www.centcom.mil/en/news/articles/counter-isil-military-coalition-concludes-operational-planning-conference.
• David Alexander, and Phil Stewart, “U.S. sees Iraqi offensive to retake Mosul in April-May time frame,” Reuters, February 19, 2015, accessed May 27, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/19/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKBN0LN28I20150219.