Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability

Mehmet Fatih Sert; Zülküf Aydemir; Yaprak Arcagök; Perihan Ürper; Bünyamin Çelebi

Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability

Abstract

Labor productivity, one of the main indicators that determines the performance of national economies, is considered one of the important determinants of economic growth and competitiveness. In the literature, it is seen that labor productivity is generally explained by economic variables such as physical capital, technology investments, and R&D expenditures. However, in recent years, it has been emphasized that structural factors such as institutional structure, governance quality, and democratic processes can also have significant effects on labor productivity. The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of democracy and governance indicators on labor productivity within the framework of machine learning methods. In the study, indicators obtained from the V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) data set were used as independent variables to represent democracy and governance dimensions, and to represent labor productivity, the output per worker series taken from the ILOSTAT database of the International Labor Organization (ILO) was included in the model as a dependent variable. The analysis was carried out using data for the period 2016-2023, covering 42 countries. Random Forest algorithm was applied in the modelling process, and the interpretability of model results was supported by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis. The findings show that the model has high explanatory power, reaching R²=0.979 in the test set. SHAP results revealed that equal access to health services and equal access to economic resources are the variables that most strongly affect labor productivity. These findings show that fair access to social rights and public services plays a decisive role in labor productivity and reveals the importance of democratic institutions and quality of governance in increasing labor productivity.

Keywords

Labor Productivity, Democracy, Governance, Random Forest, SHAP Analysis

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Data Analysis

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mehmet Fatih Sert ^*
0000-0002-6356-9240
Türkiye

Zülküf Aydemir
0000-0003-0393-4557
Türkiye

Yaprak Arcagök
0000-0003-0504-5710
Türkiye

Perihan Ürper
0009-0009-3734-998X
Türkiye

Bünyamin Çelebi
0000-0002-2866-4357
Türkiye

Publication Date

May 15, 2026

Submission Date

April 9, 2026

Acceptance Date

April 30, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 1 Number: 1

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA46MM99GC

APA

Sert, M. F., Aydemir, Z., Arcagök, Y., Ürper, P., & Çelebi, B. (2026). Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability. Anadolu Business Intelligence and Data Analytics Journal, 1(1), 16-37. https://izlik.org/JA46MM99GC

AMA

1.Sert MF, Aydemir Z, Arcagök Y, Ürper P, Çelebi B. Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability. ANABIDA. 2026;1(1):16-37. https://izlik.org/JA46MM99GC

Chicago

Sert, Mehmet Fatih, Zülküf Aydemir, Yaprak Arcagök, Perihan Ürper, and Bünyamin Çelebi. 2026. “Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability”. Anadolu Business Intelligence and Data Analytics Journal 1 (1): 16-37. https://izlik.org/JA46MM99GC.

EndNote

Sert MF, Aydemir Z, Arcagök Y, Ürper P, Çelebi B (May 1, 2026) Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability. Anadolu Business Intelligence and Data Analytics Journal 1 1 16–37.

IEEE

[1]M. F. Sert, Z. Aydemir, Y. Arcagök, P. Ürper, and B. Çelebi, “Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability”, ANABIDA, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 16–37, May 2026, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA46MM99GC

ISNAD

Sert, Mehmet Fatih - Aydemir, Zülküf - Arcagök, Yaprak - Ürper, Perihan - Çelebi, Bünyamin. “Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability”. Anadolu Business Intelligence and Data Analytics Journal 1/1 (May 1, 2026): 16-37. https://izlik.org/JA46MM99GC.

JAMA

1.Sert MF, Aydemir Z, Arcagök Y, Ürper P, Çelebi B. Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability. ANABIDA. 2026;1:16–37.

MLA

Sert, Mehmet Fatih, et al. “Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability”. Anadolu Business Intelligence and Data Analytics Journal, vol. 1, no. 1, May 2026, pp. 16-37, https://izlik.org/JA46MM99GC.

Vancouver

1.Mehmet Fatih Sert, Zülküf Aydemir, Yaprak Arcagök, Perihan Ürper, Bünyamin Çelebi. Exploring the Impact of Democracy and Governance Indicators on Labor Productivity Using Random Forest and SHAP-Based Explainability. ANABIDA [Internet]. 2026 May 1;1(1):16-37. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA46MM99GC

ANABIDA

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