POVERTY AND MCKINNON'S COMPLEMENTARY HYPOTHESIS IN N 11 COUNTRIES: PANEL CAUSES ANALYSIS

Year 2023, Volume: 24 Issue: 4, 81 - 104, 27.12.2023

Melahat Batu Ağırkaya

https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1224768

Abstract

The current study aims to test the effect of "McKinnon's complementarity hypothesis" advocated by McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) on poverty for N11 countries and to reveal the results. The McKinnon complementarity hypothesis questions the relationships between money demand, investments, and real interest rates. The study sample comprises the N11 countries' 2000-2020 data. The study analyzed the period between 2000 and 2020 using Gengenbach et al. (2016) panel cointegration and DOLS-MG estimator. Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) Granger causality test analysis were applied for the short-term causality relationship between the variables. Panel cointegration test results showed cointegrated variables in the long run. According to DOLS-MG estimation results, financial deepening positively affects human development in the long run. In conclusion, the study has revealed that increasing financial deepening in the long term contributes to human development and poverty reduction in some N11 countries such as Turkiye, South Korea, and Pakistan. In the short run, while financial deepening and human development in Indonesia have a reciprocal causal relationship, financial growth in Turkiye and Vietnam has a one-way causal relationship to human development. The study found that the McKinnon Hypothesis was valid. For other countries, the causality test results were insignificant.

Keywords

Financial Deepening, Economic Growth, Poverty, Financial System, Panel Causality

N 11 ÜLKELERİNDE YOKSULLUK VE MCKİNNON TAMAMLAYICILIK HİPOTEZİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı McKinnon (1973) ve Shaw (1973) tarafından ortaya konulan McKinnon tamamlayıcılık hipotezini N11 ülkeleri için yoksulluk üzerinde etkisini test etmek ve sonuçlarını ortaya koymaktır. McKinnon tamamlayıcılık hipotezi, para talebi, yatırımlar ve reel faizler arasındaki ilişkileri sorgulamaktadır. Çalışma örneklemi 2000-2020 döneminde N11 ülkelerine ait verilerden oluşturulmuştur. Araştırmada serilerin 2000-2020 arasındaki dönemi Gengenbach, Urbain ve Westerlund (2016) panel eşbütünleşme ve DOLS-MG tahmincileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönem nedensellik ilişkisi ise Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) Granger nedensellik test analizi uygulanmıştır. Panel eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarında değişkenlerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermiştir. DOLS-MG tahmini sonuçlarına göre ise uzun dönemde finansal derinleşme insani gelişmeyi pozitif yönlü etkilemektedir. Çalışma sonucunda; uzun dönemde artan finansal derinleşme N11 ülkelerinden Türkiye, Güney Kore ve Pakistan’da insani gelişmeyi desteklemekte, yoksulluğun azaltılmasına katkı sağlamaktadır. Kısa dönemde ise Endonezya’da finansal derinleşme ve insani gelişme karşılıklı bir nedensellik ilişkisine sahipken, Türkiye ve Vietnam’da finansal gelişimin yaşanması kısa dönemde insani gelişmenin tek yönlü nedenselidir. McKinnon Hipotezinin geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Diğer ülkeler için ise nedensellik testi sonuçları anlamsız bulunmuştur.

Keywords

Fianasal Derinleşme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Yoksulluk, Fianasal Sistem, Panel Nedensellik

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