INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY RELATED DETERMINANTS OF NEET PROBABILITY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY FOR TÜRKİYE

Year 2025, Volume: 26 Issue: 1, 538 - 567, 27.03.2025

Zeynep Elitaş

https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1619992

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of NEET status among Turkish youth aged 15–29, focusing on individual and family-related factors using 2010–2023 HLFS data. Employing a probit model, the analysis identifies significant influences of parental education, employment, and household income on NEET probability. A nuanced relationship emerges, with medium levels of parental education reducing NEET risk. Maternal education, particularly at the tertiary level, exerts a more pronounced influence compared to paternal education, underscoring the role of maternal engagement. Gender disparities are evident, with females disproportionately represented in the NEET category, largely due to caregiving responsibilities and societal norms. Family economic stability, measured through "decent work" status of parents, reduces NEET risk, while income displays a U-shaped relationship with NEET probability. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased NEET rates across all categories, disproportionately affecting females and low-educated youth. While post-pandemic recovery has been observed, gender and educational disparities persist.

Keywords

NEETs in Türkiye, Parental Education, Parental Employment, Family Income, Probit Model

References

• Alfieri, S., Sironi, E., Marta, E., Rosina, A., & Marzana, D. (2015). Young Italian NEETs (Not in Employment, Education, or Training) and the influence of their family background. Europe’s Journal of Psychology, 11(2), 311–322. https://doi.org/10.5964/ejop.v11i2.901
• Bacher, J., Tamesberger, D., Leitgöb, H., & Lankmayer, T. (2014). Not in Education, employment or training: Causes, characteristics of NEET-affected youth and exit strategies in Austria. (Working paper ISW – IBE – JKU). Austria.
• Becker, G., & Tomes, N. (1986). Human capital and the rise and fall of families. Journal of Labor Economics, 4(3), 1–39. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/2534952
• Berloffa G., Filandri M., Matteazzi E., & Nazio, T. (2015) Work-poor and work-rich families: influence on youth labor market outcomes. (STYLE Working Papers), Brighton. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/2318/1578906
• Bingöl, U. (2020). The macroeconomic determinants of NEET: A panel data analysis for fragile five countries and Russia. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 18(4), 173-189. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.822305
• Bjorklund, A., & Jäntti, M. (2009). Intergenerational income mobility and the role of family cackground. Salverda W. Nolan B. & Smeeding T. (Ed.), In Oxford handbook of economic inequality (pp.1-67). Oxford University Press.
• Bynner, J., & Parsons, S. (2002). Social exclusion and the transition from school to work: The case of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET). Journal of Vocational Behavior, 60(2), 289–309. https://doi.org/10.1006/jvbe.2001.1868
• Caroleo, F. E., Rocca, A., Mazzocchi, P., & Quintano, C. (2020). Being NEET in Europe before and after the economic crisis: An analysis of the micro and macro determinants. Social Indicators Research, 149(3), 991-1024. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02270-6
• Corak, M. (2006). Do poor children become poor adults? Lessons from a cross-country comparison of generational earnings mobility. Creedy J. & Kalb G. (Ed.), In Dynamics of inequality and poverty, research on economic inequality (pp143-188). Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Çelik K. (2008). ‘My state is my father’: youth unemployment experiences under the weak state welfare provisions of Turkey. Journal of Youth Studies, 11(4), 429-444. https://doi.org/10.1080/13676260802106191
• Çelik, K., & Lüküslü, D. (2012). Spotlighting a silent category of young females: The life experiences of “house girls” in Turkey. Youth & Society, 44(1), 28–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118X10391636
• Dama, N. (2017). Türkiye’nin eğitim, öğrenim ve çalışma sürecinde olmayan gençleri (SETA Vakfı No: 198, 1-27). https://www.setav.org/assets/uploads/2017/05/Analiz_198.pdf
• Erdoğan, E., Yentürk, N., Akyüz, A. A., Kurtaran, Y., Yurttagüler, L., Dursun, K., & Oy, B. (2017). Being a NEET in Turkey: Determinants and consequences. (Power2Youth Working Paper No:30). Retrieved from https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/p2y_30.pdf
• Ermisch, J., Francesconi, M., & Pevalin, D. J. (2004). Parental partnership and joblessness in childhood and their influence on young people's outcomes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series a-Statistics in Society, 167, 69-101. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00292.x
• Eurofound. (2012). NEETs– Young people not in employment, education or training: Characteristics, costs and policy responses in Europe. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. Retrieved from https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/en/publications/2012/neets-young-people-not-employment-education-or-training-characteristics-costs-and
• Harkonen, J. (2011). Children and dual worklessness in Europe: A comparison of nine countries. European Journal of Population-Revue Europeenne De Demographie, 27, 217-241. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-011-9232-3
• Haveman, R. H., & Wolfe, B. (1994). Succeeding generations: On the effects of investments in children. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
• ILO. (2021). An update on the youth labor market impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Retrieved from https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/%40ed_emp/documents/briefingnote/wcms_795479.pdf
• Işık, V. (2016). Türkiye’de genç işsizliği ve genç nüfusta atalet. Hak İş Uluslararası Emek ve Toplum Dergisi, 5(11), 130-145.
• Karaoglan D., & Okten, C. (2022). The effect of parental job loss on youth transition to employment in Turkey. Labour, 36, 251–275. https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12216
• Kılıç, Y. (2014). Young people in Turkey who are not in education, employment or training (NEET). Eğitim ve Bilim, 39(175), 121-135. https://doi.org/10.15390/EB.2014.3094
• Mascherini, M. (2018). Origins and future of the concept of NEETs in the European policy agenda, J. O’Reilly, J. Leschke, R. Ortlieb, M. Seeleib-Kaiser & P. Villa (Eds.), In Youth labor in transition: Inequalities, mobility, and policies in Europe (pp. 503-529). https://doi.org/ 10.1093/oso/9780190864798.003.0017
• McLanahan, S. (2004). Diverging destinies: How children are faring under the second demographic transition. Demography, 41, 607-627. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/dem.2004.0033
• Levinsohn, J., Rankin, N., Roberts, G., & Schoer, V. (2014). Wage subsidies and youth employment in South Africa: Evidence from a randomized control trial. (Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers No. 02/14). Retrieved from https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:IUaOauWxxOAJ.
• Lüküslü D., & Çelik, K. (2022). Gendering the NEET category: young NEET women in Turkey. Turkish Studies, 23(2), 200–222. https://doi.org/10.1080/14683849.2021.1882861
• OECD. (2015). Youth unemployment rate (indicator). Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/c3634df7-en
• OECD. (2020). Education at a Glance 2020: OECD indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/69096873-en
• OECD. (2022). Youth not in employment, education or training (NEET). Paris: OECD Publishing. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/youth-not-in-employment-education-or-training-neet.html
• O’Neill D., & Sweetman, O. (1998). Intergenerational mobility in Britain: Evidence from unemployment patterns. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 60(4), 431–447. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.00108
• Özdemir O., Özcan K. M., & Üçdoğruk Birecikli, Ş. (2023). Youth not in Employment, Education, or Training (NEET) in Turkey: A Regional analysis. Ege Academic Review, 23(3), 409-426. https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.1178984
• Özer M., & Suna, E. (2023). Youth not in employment, education or training (NEET): Current policies and improvements in Türkiye. (TRT World Research Centre Discussion Paper). Retrieved from https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Young-People_V4.pdf
• Raitano, M., & Vona, F. (2014). Measuring the link between intergenerational occupational mobility and earnings: evidence from eight countries. Journal of Economic Inequality, 13, 83-102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-014-9286-7
• Schoon, I., Barnes, M., Parsons, S., Brown, V., Ross, A., & Vignoles, A. (2012). Intergenerational transmission of worklessness: Evidence from the millennium cohort and the longitudinal study of young people in England (Department for Education. DFE-RR-234=. Retrieved from https://www.education.gov.uk/publications/eOrderingDownload/DFE-RR234.pdf
• Solon, G. (2004). A Model of intergenerational mobility variation over time and place. In M. Corak (Ed.), Generational income mobility in Europe and North America (pp.38–47). Cambridge University Press.
• Susanli, Z. B. (2016). Understanding the NEET in Turkey. Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(2), 42-57. https://doi.org/10.15604/ejef.2016.04.02.004
• Sahin L., Ersöz H. Y., Demir I., Kocakaya M. E., Akgül O., & Bükey, A. M. (2023). The relationship between cause and effect dimensions of young people’s being “not in education, employment, or training (NEET)” in Turkey. Sustainability, 15(15274), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/su152115274
• Tamesberger, D., & Bacher, J. (2020). Covid-19 crisis: How to avoid a ‘lost generation’. Intereconomics, 55(4), 232-238. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-020-0908-y
• Yılmaz, M. E. (2020). Transition from education to labor market in Turkey (Unpublished master’s thesis). University Comparative Social Policy and Welfare.
• Yiğit B., Çakmak B. Y., & Çakmak, E. E. (2023). NEET in Turkey: a typology including jobless youths, parental education and employment status as determinants. Education + Training, 65(5), 731-748. https://doi.org/10.1108/ET-01-2023-0005
• Yüksel Arabacı, R. (2020). Türkiye’de ne eğitimde ne istihdamda olan gençlerin sosyo-demografik yapısı ve işgücü piyasası ile bağlantısı. Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 53(3), 103-130.
• Zucotti, C.V., & Reilly, J. (2019). Ethnicity, gender, and household effects on becoming NEET: An intersectional analysis. Work, Employment and Society, 33(3), 351-373. https://doi.org/10.1177/0950017017738945
• Zwysen W. (2015). The effects of father’s worklessness on young adults in the UK. IZA Journal of European Labor Studies. 4(2). https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-9012-4-2