ACCURACY AND BIAS ANALYSIS OF BUDGET FORECASTS IN TURKISH METROPOLITAN MUNICIPALITIES: FIFTEEN METROPOLITAN MUNICIPALITIES AND THE PERIOD 2011-2022

Year 2025, Volume: 26 Issue: 3, 70 - 95, 28.09.2025

Berat Kara

https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1584977

Abstract

Accurate, complete, and unbiased forecasts of municipal revenues and expenditures support effective resource management, while inaccurate and biased forecasts lead to resource waste, economic instability, fiscal imbalance, loss of trust, and disruptions in public services. This study analyzes the accuracy and bias of budget forecasts in Türkiye’s metropolitan municipalities, focusing on fifteen major municipalities (İstanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Kocaeli, Bursa, Antalya, Konya, Adana, Tekirdağ, Gaziantep, Kayseri, Şanlıurfa, Samsun, Ordu, Erzurum). Revenue and expenditure errors were calculated and evaluated. The accuracy of the forecasts was analyzed using Theil’s Inequality Coefficient, while the presence of bias was examined with the Holden-Peel test. Findings indicate that forecasts in metropolitan municipalities contain significant errors, with certain systematic biases identified in some municipalities. Additionally, the accuracy of metropolitan municipalities' budgets was found to be lower than that of the central government budget.

Keywords

Budget Forecasting Error , Forecasting Bias , Theil’s Inequality Coefficients , Holden-Peel Test , Metropolitan Municipality

TÜRKİYE BÜYÜKŞEHİR BELEDİYELERİNDE BÜTÇE TAHMİNLERİNİN GERÇEKLİK VE YANLILIK ANALİZİ: ON BEŞ BÜYÜKŞEHİR BELEDİYESİ VE 2011-2022 DÖNEMİ

Abstract

Belediye gelir ve harcamalarının tam, doğru ve yansız tahmin edilebilmesi, etkili kaynak yönetimini desteklerken; hatalı ve yanlı tahminler kaynak israfına, ekonomik istikrarsızlığa, mali dengenin bozulmasına, güven kaybına ve kamu hizmetlerinin aksamasına yol açmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'deki büyükşehir belediyelerindeki bütçe tahminlerinin doğruluğu ve yanlılığı, on beş büyükşehir belediyesi (İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Kocaeli, Bursa, Antalya, Konya, Adana, Tekirdağ, Gaziantep, Kayseri, Şanlıurfa, Samsun, Ordu, Erzurum) kapsamında analiz edilmiştir. Gelir ve gider tahmin hataları hesaplanmış ve değerlendirilmiştir. Theil’in Eşitsizlik Katsayısı Yöntemi ile tahminlerin doğruluğu analiz edilmiş, Holden-Peel testi ile yanlılığın var olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, bütçe tahminlerinin çok yüksek oranda hatalı olduğunu ve bazı belediyelerde belirli tahmin yanlılıklarının bulunduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca bütçe gerçekliğinin merkezi yönetim bütçe gerçekliğinden daha başarısız olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Bütçe Tahmin Hatası , Tahmin Yanlılığı , Theil’in Eşitsizlik Katsayısı , Holden-Peel Testi , Büyükşehir Belediyesi

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