İklim Değişikliği Kaynaklı Göç Potansiyeli: Türkiye Üzerine Çok Boyutlu Bir Alan Araştırması

Abstract

Bu çalışma küresel ortak bir sorun olan iklim değişikliğinin göçler üzerindeki etkilerini Türkiye ölçeğinde ele almaktadır. Geleceğin önemli problemleri arasında gösterilen iklimsel göçün bütünlüklü bir fotoğrafını Türkiye özelinde göstermeyi ve bu anlamda henüz yeterince tartışılmamış bu alana dikkatleri çekerek katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Belirli iklimsel afetlere bağlı olarak seçilen birçok ilde toplumun farklı kesimleri (çiftçi, uzman vb.) ile toplamda 127 görüşme gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu görüşmelerde katılımcıların iklim değişikliği algısı, etkilenebilirlik düzeyleri ve göç potansiyelleri ele alınmıştır. Bulgular, ülke genelinde tüm katılımcılar düzeyinde belirgin bir iklim değişikliği algınının varlık gösterdiğini, etkilenmenin yüksek ve göç potansiyelleri bağlamında da üç şekilde tepki tepki verdiğini göstermektedir: göçe direnç, arafta kalma ve son çare olarak göç etme isteği. İklim değişikliği ile ilişkili afetler özellikle çarpan özelliği itibariyle ülke içi göç hareketleri üzerinde önemli bir tehdit unsuru haline geldiği söylenebilir. Tüm afetler içinde özellikle kuraklık ve onun neden olduğu sorunların ülke içi göçleri belirleyeceği kanısındayız.

Keywords

• Türkiye
• Göç
• İklim Değişikliği
• İklimsel Göç
• Afetler

Climate change-induced migration potential: A multidimensional field study on Turkey

Abstract

This study examines the effects of climate change, a common global problem, on migration at the scale of Türkiye. It aims to provide a comprehensive picture of climate-induced migration, specifically within Türkiye, and to draw attention to this area, which still needs to be sufficiently discussed. 127 interviews were conducted with different segments of society (farmers, experts, etc.) in various provinces selected based on specific climate-related disasters. These interviews explored participants' perceptions of climate change, their vulnerability levels, and their migration potential. The findings indicate a significant perception of climate change across all participants nationwide, with high levels of impact and three types of responses regarding migration potential: resistance to migration, remaining in a state of limbo, and a desire to migrate as a last resort. Climate change-induced related disasters, particularly due to their multiplier effects, have significantly threatened internal migration movements. Among all disasters, we believe that drought and its associated problems will particularly determine internal migrations.

Keywords

• Turkey
• Migration
• Climate Change
• Climate Migration
• Disasters

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