Social Media Data Mining as a Novel Approach to Electoral Geography
Year 2024,
Volume: 22 Issue: 1, 137 - 156, 29.04.2024
Burak Oğlakcı
,
Alper Uzun
Abstract
When individual discourses and attitudes on social media are used for electoral geography with their spatio-temporal information, they can provide essential clues about voter behavior and voting preferences. Although there are different election-based studies using data from social media, these studies have remained far from spatial understanding of the reasons behind the votes. This research aims to understand the differences in voter behavior and voting, along with revealing the context effects on voting by using this new data and methods in the field of electoral geography. We obtain the election-oriented tweets on X (Twitter) posted from Yenimahalle (Turkey), determine sentiment states, identify the dominant topics in the tweets, and reveal the relationship between the popularity rates of the candidates on X (Twitter) and the actual vote rates. Consequently, user-generated spatio-temporal data on X (Twitter) is essential in understanding the differences in voter behavior/participation and voting, as well as in revealing context effects on voting.
Ethical Statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors
Thanks
We would like to extend our thanks to the editor and anonymous reviewers for providing thoughtful suggestions to improve the article.
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Seçim Coğrafyasına Yeni Bir Yaklaşım Olarak Sosyal Medya Veri Madenciliği
Year 2024,
Volume: 22 Issue: 1, 137 - 156, 29.04.2024
Burak Oğlakcı
,
Alper Uzun
Abstract
Sosyal medyada yer alan bireysel söylemler ve tutumlar, sahip oldukları mekânsal-zamansal bilgilerle birlikte seçim coğrafyası için kullanıldığında seçmen davranışları ve oy tercihleri hakkında önemli ipuçları sağlayabilmektedir. Sosyal medya verilerini kullanan seçim odaklı farklı çalışmalar olsa da bu çalışmalar oyların ardındaki nedenleri mekânsal olarak anlamaktan uzak kalmıştır. Bu araştırma, seçim coğrafyası alanı için yeni sayılabilecek veri ve yöntemleri kullanarak seçmen davranışı ve oy vermedeki farklılıkları anlamayı, oy verme üzerindeki bağlamsal etkileri ortaya çıkarmayı amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmada X (Twitter) üzerinde Yenimahalle (Türkiye) ilçesinden paylaşılan seçim odaklı tweetleri elde ediyor, duygu durumlarını belirliyor, tweetlerdeki baskın konuları tespit ediyor ve adayların X (Twitter) üzerindeki popülerlik oranları ile gerçek oy oranları arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koyuyoruz. Sonuç olarak, X (Twitter) üzerinde kullanıcılar tarafından oluşturulan mekân-zamansal veriler, seçmen davranışı/katılımı ve oy vermedeki farklılıkları anlamanın yanı sıra oy verme üzerindeki bağlam etkilerinin ortaya çıkarılmasında önemli bir yer tutmaktadır.
Ethical Statement
Yazarlar tarafından herhangi bir çıkar çatışması beyan edilmemiştir.
Thanks
Değerli editör ve anonim hakemlere makaleyi geliştirmeye yönelik düşünceli önerileri için teşekkürlerimizi sunarız.
References
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- Agnew, J. A. (1996). Mapping politics: How context counts in electoral geography. Political Geography, 15 (2), 129–146. doi: 10.1016/0962-6298(95)00076-3
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- Cantey, C. (2013). Data-mining social media for spatiotemporal patterns of negative opinion. Master’s thesis. Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin–Madison, College of Letters and Science.
- Ceron, A., Curini, L., Iacus, S. M., Porro, G. (2014). Every tweet counts? How sentiment analysis of social media can improve our knowledge of citizens’ political preferences with an application to Italy and France. New Media & Society, 16(2), 340-358. doi: 10.1177/1461444813480466
- Chauhan, P., Sharma, N., Sikka, G. (2023). Application of Twitter sentiment analysis in election prediction: a case study of 2019 Indian general election. Social Network Analysis and Mining, 13(1), 1-29. doi: 10.1007/s13278-023-01087-8
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- Goodchild, M. F. (2007). Citizens as sensors: the world of volunteered geography. GeoJournal, 69 (4), 211-221. doi: 10.1007/s10708-007-9111-y
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- Harrison, T. M., Barthel, B. (2009). Wielding new media in Web 2.0: Exploring the history of engagement with the collaborative construction of media products. New Media & Society, 11 (1-2), 155-178. doi: 10.1177/1461444808099580
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- Ibrahim, M., Abdillah, O., Wicaksono, A. F., Adriani, M. (2015). Buzzer detection and sentiment analysis for predicting presidential election results in a Twitter nation. 2015 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining Workshop (ICDMW), Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE Computer Society. 1348-1353.
- İncioğlu, N. (2002). Local elections and electoral behavior. Sayari, S., Esmer, Y. (Eds.), Politics, Parties, and Elections in Turkey, Boulder-London: Lynne Rienner Publishers. 73-90.
- Jaidka, K., Ahmed, S., Skoric, M., Hilbert, M. (2019). Predicting elections from social media: a three-country, three-method comparative study. Asian Journal of Communication, 29(3), 252-273. doi: 10.1080/01292986.2018.1453849
- Johnston, R. J., Pattie, C. (2006). Putting Voters in Their Place: Geography and Elections in Great Britain. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Kalaycıoğlu, E. (1999). The shaping of party preferences in Turkey: Coping with the Post-Cold War era. New Perspectives on Turkey, (20), 47-76. doi: 10.1017/S0896634600003137
- Kamalak, İ. (2013). Yerelin yerel seçimlere etkisi: belediye başkan adayları üzerinden bir inceleme. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15 (3), 419-446. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/deusosbil/issue/4632/63145
- Khan, A., Boudjellal, N., Zhang, H., Ahmad, A., Khan, M. (2023). From social media to ballot box: Leveraging location-aware sentiment analysis for election predictions. Computers, Materials & Continua, 77(3), 3037-3055. doi: 10.32604/cmc.2023.044403
- Kozinets, R. V. (2002). The field behind the screen: Using netnography for marketing research in online communities. Journal of Marketing Research, 39 (1), 61-72. doi: 10.1509/jmkr.39.1.61.18935
- Köksal, A. (2020). BERT-Sentiment-analysis-Turkish, GitHub repository. Retrieved from https://github.com/akoksal/BERT-Sentiment-Analysis-Turkish
- Liu, R., Yao, X., Guo, C., Wei, X. (2021). Can we forecast presidential election using Twitter data? An integrative modelling approach. Annals of GIS, 27(1), 43-56. doi: 10.1080/19475683.2020.1829704
- Markham, A. N. (2004). Internet communication as a tool for qualitative research. In Silverman, D. (Ed.), Qualitative research: Theory, method and practice (2nd Ed.), London: Sage Publications. 95-124.
- Marozzo, F., Bessi, A. (2018). Analyzing polarization of social media users and news sites during political campaigns. Social Network Analysis and Mining 8 (1). doi: 10.1007/s13278-017-0479-5
- McPhail, I. R. (1971). Recent trends in electoral geography. In Johnston, R. J., Chapman, J., Soons, J. M. (Eds.), Proceedings of the Sixth New Zealand Geography Conference, Christchurch: New Zealand Geographical Society, 7-12.
- Miş, N., Duran, H. (2019). İttifaktan blok siyasetine 31 Mart yerel seçimleri. Adam Akademi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9 (2), 363-393. doi: 10.31679/adamakademi.634750
- Murugesan, S. (2007). Understanding Web 2.0. IT Professional, 9 (4), 34-41. doi: 10.1109/MITP.2007.78
- O'Connor, B., Balasubramanyan, R., Routledge, B., Smith, N. (2010). From tweets to polls: Linking text sentiment to public opinion time series. Proceedings of The Fourth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, California: The AAAI Press. 122-129.
- Oğlakcı, B., Uzun, A. (2021). Metinsel mesajdan mekânsal bilgiye: coğrafya araştırmalarında veri kaynağı olarak sosyal ağ Twitter. lnternational Journal of Geography and Geography Education, (44), 176-191. doi: 10.32003/igge.927907
- Oikonomou, L., Tjortjis, C. (2018). A Method for Predicting the Winner of the USA Presidential Elections using Data extracted from Twitter. South-Eastern European Design Automation, Computer Engineering, Computer Networks and Society Media Conference (SEEDA_CECNSM), 1-8. Doi: 10.23919/SEEDA-CECNSM.2018.8544919.
- Okcu, M., Albayrak, M., Topal, K., Turhan, G., Altıntaş. (2019). Yapay zekayla sosyal medyadan şehir verisini dinlemek. Şehircilik ve Mutlu Şehirler Uluslararası Akademik Bildiriler Kitabı, Kocaeli: Kocaeli BB. 302-321.
- O’Loughlin, J. (1981). The neighbourhood effect in urban voting surfaces: a crossnational analysis. In Burnett, A. D., Taylor, P. J. (Eds.), Political Studies from Spatial Perspectives: Anglo-American Essays on Political Geography, Chichester: John Wiley. 357-388.
- Olshannikova, E., Olsson, T., Huhtamäki, J., Kärkkäinen, H. (2017). Conceptualizing big social data. Journal of Big Data, 4(1), 1-19. doi: 10.1186/s40537-017-0063-x
- Özen, I. C., Kalkan, K. O. (2017). Spatial analysis of contemporary Turkish elections: a comprehensive approach. Turkish Studies, 18, 358-377. doi: 10.1080/14683849.2016.1259576
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