Modeling of Stochastic Process of Implementation of Various Combinations of Dangerous Meteorological Phenomena in the Mountains of the Caucasus

Year 2019, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 1 - 7, 27.12.2019

Mariam Elizbarashvili Elizbar Elizbarashvili

Abstract

The mountainous
regions of Caucasus are characterized by the exceptional variety of dangerous
meteorological phenomena that often cause significant material damage and human
losses. These dangerous meteorological phenomena often occur simultaneously and
exacerbate the situation. For example, increased wind during heavy rains, fog
during snowstorms, hurricanes with hail, etc. To reduce the negative effects of
such phenomena, it is necessary to know their probabilistic characteristics in
given area.

These meteorological
phenomena are independent of each other, therefore the physical process of
their occurrence has stochastic nature and it can be investigated as a random
process based on the well-known probability theorems of multiplication and
addition.

Using these
theorems, the stochastic process of realizing various combinations of dangerous
meteorological phenomena in the Caucasus Mountains is modeled. For the Caucasus
Mountains, the most likely is the implementation of snowstorm, hurricane wind
or hail in combination with dangerous fog. The occurrence probabilities of one
of the complex events, probability of the joint implementation of complex of
both events and the periods of risk recurrence are identified.

Keywords

Meteorological Phenomena, Mountains of the Caucasus

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