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KÜRESELLEŞME ÇAĞINDA EKONOMIK BÜYÜME VE KAMU BORCU: GELIŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERE DAIR BIR İNCELEME

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 1 - 23, 31.12.2018

Abstract

Özet

Bu çalışma, 1970-2015 yılları arasını kapsamak üzere 72 az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkenin, kamu borcu ve

ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini ampirik olarak incelemektedir. Toda-Yamamoto genişletilmiş

Granger nedensellik analiz testi uygulanmıştır. Yapılan analize göre, 21 ülkede ekonomik büyümeden kamu

borçlanmasına doğru, 15 ülkede kamu borçlanmasından ekonomik büyümeye doğru, 9 ülkede karşılıklı bir

nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve 27 ülke ekonomisi için kamu borçlanması ile ekonomik büyüme arasında

herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi gözlemlenmemiştir.

References

  • Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1997). “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 2.
  • Baldacci, E. and Kumar, M. S. (2010). “Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields”, IMF Working Paper, WP/10/184.
  • Barro, R. J. (1979). “On the determination of the public debt”, Journal of Political Economy, 87 (5): 940-971.
  • Barro, R. J. (2013). “Inflation and economic growth”, Annals of Economic and Finance, Society for AEF, 14 (1): 121-144.
  • Reinhart, C. M., Rogoff, K. S. and Savastano, M. A. (2003). “Debt intolerance”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 1-74.
  • Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M. S. and Zampolli F. (2011). “The real effects of debt”, BIS Working Papers, No 352.
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Econometrica, 49: 1057-72.
  • Dotsey, M. (1994). “Some unpleasant supply side arithmetic”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 33: 507–524.
  • Dreher, A. (2006). “Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization”, Applied Economics 38, pp. 1091–1110.
  • Dreher, A., Noel G. and Pim M. (2008). Measuring globalization: gauging its consequence, New York: Springer.
  • Easterly, W. R. (2001). “Growth Implosions and Debt Explosions: Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises?”, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 1 (1): 1-24.
  • Egert, B. (2013). “Public Debt, Economic Growth and Nonlinear Effects: Myth or Reality”, CESifo Working Paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth, No. 4157.
  • Elmendorf, D. W. and Mankiw, N. G. (1998). “Government Debt,” NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), Working Paper No. 6470.
  • Gale, W. G. and Orszag, P. R. (2003). “Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits”, National Tax Journal, 56: 463–85.
  • Hemming, R., Kell, M. and Schimmelpfennig A. (2003). “Fiscal vulnerability and financial crises in emerging market economies”, IMF Occasional Paper, No. 218.
  • Kim, D.H., Suen, Y.B., Lin, S.C. and Hsieh, J. (2018). “Government size, government debt and globalization”, Applied Economics, 50 (25): 2792-2803.
  • Kumar, M. S. and Woo, J. (2010). “Public debt and growth”, IMF Working Paper, WP/10/174.
  • Panizza, U. and Presbitero, A. F. (2014). “Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 41: 21-41.
  • Rambaldi, A. N. and Doran, H. E. (1996). “Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated Systems Made Easy”, Working Papers in Econometrics and Applied Statistics, Department of Econometrics, The University of New England, No. 88.
  • Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2010). “Growth in a time of debt”, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 100: 573–578.
  • Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995). “Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66: 225-250.
  • United Nations, (2002). “Globalization and new challenges of public finance: Financial management, transparency and accountability”, Report of the Meeting of the Group of Experts Rome, 28-30 November 2001, New York, 2002.
  • Zapata, H. O. and Rambaldi, A. N. (1997). “Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 59: 285–298.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC DEBT IN THE ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION ERA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Year 2018, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 1 - 23, 31.12.2018

Abstract

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in a

sample of the 72 countries consisting of less developed and developing, country-by-country, in the period

of 1970–2015. I apply the Toda-Yamamoto augmented Granger non-causality testing procedure. I observe

a significant causality from economic growth to the public debt of a country in twenty-one countries. In

fifteen countries, there is a unidirectional causality running from the public debt to economic growth. I find

bi-directional causality in only nine countries and no causal relation in twenty-seven economies.

References

  • Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1997). “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 44, No. 2.
  • Baldacci, E. and Kumar, M. S. (2010). “Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields”, IMF Working Paper, WP/10/184.
  • Barro, R. J. (1979). “On the determination of the public debt”, Journal of Political Economy, 87 (5): 940-971.
  • Barro, R. J. (2013). “Inflation and economic growth”, Annals of Economic and Finance, Society for AEF, 14 (1): 121-144.
  • Reinhart, C. M., Rogoff, K. S. and Savastano, M. A. (2003). “Debt intolerance”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 1-74.
  • Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M. S. and Zampolli F. (2011). “The real effects of debt”, BIS Working Papers, No 352.
  • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Econometrica, 49: 1057-72.
  • Dotsey, M. (1994). “Some unpleasant supply side arithmetic”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 33: 507–524.
  • Dreher, A. (2006). “Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization”, Applied Economics 38, pp. 1091–1110.
  • Dreher, A., Noel G. and Pim M. (2008). Measuring globalization: gauging its consequence, New York: Springer.
  • Easterly, W. R. (2001). “Growth Implosions and Debt Explosions: Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises?”, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 1 (1): 1-24.
  • Egert, B. (2013). “Public Debt, Economic Growth and Nonlinear Effects: Myth or Reality”, CESifo Working Paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth, No. 4157.
  • Elmendorf, D. W. and Mankiw, N. G. (1998). “Government Debt,” NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), Working Paper No. 6470.
  • Gale, W. G. and Orszag, P. R. (2003). “Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits”, National Tax Journal, 56: 463–85.
  • Hemming, R., Kell, M. and Schimmelpfennig A. (2003). “Fiscal vulnerability and financial crises in emerging market economies”, IMF Occasional Paper, No. 218.
  • Kim, D.H., Suen, Y.B., Lin, S.C. and Hsieh, J. (2018). “Government size, government debt and globalization”, Applied Economics, 50 (25): 2792-2803.
  • Kumar, M. S. and Woo, J. (2010). “Public debt and growth”, IMF Working Paper, WP/10/174.
  • Panizza, U. and Presbitero, A. F. (2014). “Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is There a Causal Effect?,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 41: 21-41.
  • Rambaldi, A. N. and Doran, H. E. (1996). “Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated Systems Made Easy”, Working Papers in Econometrics and Applied Statistics, Department of Econometrics, The University of New England, No. 88.
  • Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2010). “Growth in a time of debt”, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 100: 573–578.
  • Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995). “Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes”, Journal of Econometrics, 66: 225-250.
  • United Nations, (2002). “Globalization and new challenges of public finance: Financial management, transparency and accountability”, Report of the Meeting of the Group of Experts Rome, 28-30 November 2001, New York, 2002.
  • Zapata, H. O. and Rambaldi, A. N. (1997). “Monte Carlo evidence on cointegration and causation”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 59: 285–298.
There are 23 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Barış Kablamacı

Publication Date December 31, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 3 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Kablamacı, B. (2018). ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC DEBT IN THE ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION ERA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Aurum Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), 1-23.