ABD Desteği Olmaksızın İsrail’in Genişleme Kapasitesi: Karşı-Olgusal Bir Simülasyon Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, İsrail’in Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nden (ABD) aldığı askerî, mali ve diplomatik desteğin azalması veya kesilmesi durumunda bölgesel genişleme kapasitesinin nasıl değişeceğini karşı-olgusal bir simülasyon modeli aracılığıyla incelemektedir. Araştırmanın temel sorusu, ABD desteğinin kademeli, ani ya da koşullu biçimde sona ermesi hâlinde İsrail’in genişleme stratejisini sürdürebilip sürdüremeyeceğidir. Bu amaçla üç senaryoya dayalı bir simülasyon yaklaşımı kullanılmış; askerî hazırlık düzeyi, bütçe baskısı, diplomatik izolasyon ve genişleme olasılığı göstergeleri yıllık dönemler itibarıyla analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, ABD desteğinin azalmasının İsrail’in genişleme kapasitesini yalnızca askerî değil, aynı zamanda ekonomik ve diplomatik boyutlarda da belirgin biçimde sınırladığını göstermektedir. Çalışma, asimetrik ittifaklar ve stratejik bağımlılık literatürüne katkı sunarak, devlet kapasitesinin dış destekten bağımsız değerlendirilemeyeceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Stratejik bağımlılık
• asimetrik ittifaklar
• karşı-olgusal modelleme
• askerî kapasite
• İsrail–ABD ilişkileri

Israel’s Capacity for Expansion Without U.S. Support: A Counterfactual Study of Strategic Dependency

Abstract

This study examines how Israel’s capacity for regional expansion changes under a counterfactual simulation model in scenarios where military, financial, and diplomatic support from the United States (U.S.) is reduced or withdrawn. The central research question addresses whether Israel can sustain its expansion strategy in the event of a gradual withdrawal, sudden cutoff, or conditional continuation of U.S. support. To this end, a scenario-based simulation approach is employed, analyzing indicators such as military readiness, budgetary pressure, diplomatic isolation, and expansion feasibility on an annual basis. The findings indicate that a reduction in U.S. support significantly constrains Israel’s expansion capacity not only in military terms but also across economic and diplomatic dimensions. By engaging with the literature on asymmetric alliances and strategic dependency, the study demonstrates that state capacity cannot be evaluated independently of external support structures.

Keywords

• Strategic dependency
• asymmetric alliances
• counterfactual modeling
• military capacity
• Israel–U.S. relations

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