Russian Hybrid Warfare and Its Implications in The Black Sea

Year 2017, Vol: 1, No: 1, 1 - 20, 10.05.2017

Dr. Şafak Oğuz

Abstract

This paper will study Russian hybrid warfare in Ukraine and especially in Crimea, and analyse its implications on the Black Sea region. Although hybrid warfare is an old concept, theoretical studies of it began in Western countries mainly in the post-Cold War era, focusing on asymmetrical threats against the conventional superiority of Western countries such as the USA. The September 11th attacks and the 2006 Lebanon War played important roles in the evolution of hybrid warfare theories. Studies in Russia on hybrid warfare, which the Russians call “non-linear war,” are based primarily on lessons learned during the Color Revolutions and the Arab Spring. Hybrid warfare emerged as one of the main security issues for the West, and especially for NATO, with the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The Russian military strategies that Western countries called “hybrid warfare” resulted in the successful annexation of Crimea and became a serious security issue for the West. Russian military activities during the Ukrainian crisis and the Russian annexation of Crimea also resulted in important changes in the security of the Black Sea. The crisis intensified the Russian military build-up and the military presence of NATO, especially the USA, in the region, while the Black Sea, which was intended to be a peaceful region, became a stage for a military showdown between NATO and Russia.

Keywords

Russia, Hybrid Warfare, NATO, Black Sea, Crimea

Rus Hibrit Savaşı ve Karadeniz’deki Uygulamaları

Abstract

Bu çalışma Rusya’nın Ukrayna’daki ve özellikle Kırım’daki karma savaşını incelemekte ve bunun Karadeniz’deki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Karma savaş eski bir konsept olsa da batılı devletlerdeki teori çalışmaları genel olarak ABD gibi devletlerin konvansiyonel üstünlüğüne karşı asimetrik tehditlere odaklanarak Soğuk Savaş sonrası dönemde başlamıştır. 11 Eylül saldırıları ve 2016 Lübnan savaşı karma savaş teorisinin gelişiminde önemli rol oynamışlardır. Rusların “doğrusal olmayan savaş” olarak adlandırdıkları Rus karma savaşına yönelik çalışmalar esas olarak Renkli Devrimler ve Arap Baharı esnasında alınan derslere dayalı olarak şekillenmiştir. Rusya-Ukrayna krizinin başlaması ile karma savaş batı ve özellikle de NATO için temel güvenlik sorunu olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Batılı devletler tarafından karma savaş olarak adlandırılan Rus askeri stratejileri Kırım’ın başarılı bir şekilde ilhakı ile sonuçlanmış ve batı için bir önemli bir güvenlik sorunu haline gelmiştir. Rusya’nın Ukrayna krizindeki askeri faaliyetleri ve Kırım’ı ilhakı Karadeniz’in güvenliğinde önemli değişimlere yol açmıştır. Kriz bölgede Rusya’nın askeri anlamda takviyesini ve NATO’nun ve özellikle ABD’nin askeri varlığını artırırken bir dönem barış bölgesi olması amaçlanan Karadeniz NATO ve Rusya arasındaki güç gösterisi alanı haline gelmiştir.

Keywords

Rusya, Karma Savaş, NATO, Karadeniz, Kırım

References

• ALLISON, Roy "Russian "deniable" Intervention in Ukraine: how and why Russia broke the Rules", International Affairs 90-6, 2014. BECHEV, Dimitar "NATO Summit: Focus will be on Black Sea Security", Aljazeera, July 05, 2016, Accessed November 18, 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/06/nato-summit-focus-black-sea-security-160629071029770.html. BODNER, Matthew "Black Sea Rising: Rebirth of a Russian Fleet", The Moscow Times, May 17, 2016. BODNER, Matthew "Russia's Black Sea Fleet Will Get 80 New Warships to Repel NATO", The Moscow Times, September 23, 2014. "Bulgaria says will not join any NATO Black Sea fleet after Russian warning", Reuters, June 16, 2016. CHIRIAC, Marian "Romania Calls for Permanent NATO Black Sea Force", Balkan Insight, February 02, 2016, Accessed November 11, 2016, http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/romania-calls-for-permanent-nato-black-sea-force-02-01-2016-1 COALSON, Robert "Top Russian General Lays Bare Putin's Plan for Ukraine", Huffington Post, February 09, 2014. Doorstep statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the start of the meetings of NATO Defence Ministers, June 14, 2016, Accessed August 22, 2016, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_132351.htm "Erdoğan, Genelkurmay Başkanları Konferansında konuştu 2", Hürriyet, May 11, 2016, Accessed September 12, 2016, http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/erdogan-genelkurmay-baskanlari-konferansinda-konustu-2-37278428 Future NATO, Speech by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at Chatham House - London, 2014, Accessed March 24, 2016, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/opinions_111132.htm "Germany's Domestic Intelligence Chief accuses Russia of Cyberwarfare", Deutsche Welle, May 13, 2016. GOLTS, Alexander "Are Color Revolutions a new Form of War", The Moscow Times, June 02, 2014. HOFFMAN, Frank G. "Hybrid Warfare and Challenges", Joint Force Quarterly 52, 1st Quarter 2009, p. 34-39. HOFFMAN, Frank G. "Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars", Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 2007, Accessed May 18, 2016, http://www.potomacinstitute.org/publications/Potomac_HybridWar_ 0108.pdf, p. 28. HORRELL, Steven “A NATO Strategy for Security in the Black Sea Region", Atlantic Council, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security September 2016, Accessed September 21, 2016, https://www.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-studies/resources /docs/Atlantic%20Council-A%20NATO%20Strategy%20for%20Security%20in%20the%20Black %20Sea%20Region.pdf. JONES, Sam "Ukraine: Russia’s New Art of War", Financial Times, 28 August 2014. MACFARQUHAR, Neil "Putin says he weighed Nuclear Alert over Crimea", The New York Times, March 15, 2015. MAIGRE, Merie "Nothing New in Hybrid Warfare: The Estonian Experience and Recommendations for NATO", The German Marshall Fund of the United States Policy Brief, 2015, Accessed August 15, 2016, http://www.gmfus.org/publications/nothing-new-hybrid-warfare-estonian-experience-and-recommendations-nato MCCULLOH, Timothy and Richard Johnson, "Hybrid Warfare", JSOU Report 13-4, August 2013, Accessed May 12, 2016, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA591803 MURRAY, Williamson and Peter R. Mansoor, Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012. POMERANTSEV, Peter "How Putin is reinventing Warfare", Foreign Policy, May 05, 2014, Accessed September 18, 2016, http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/05/05/how-putin-is-reinventing-warfare/ POLITYUK, Pavel "Ukraine sees Russian Hand in Cyber Attacks on Power Grid", Reuters, February 12, 2016. Press Conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of NATO Defence Ministers, October 16, 2016, Accessed November 18, 2016, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_136581.htm?selectedLocale=en PUKHOV, Ruslan "Nothing 'Hybrid' about Russia's war in Ukraine", The Moscow Times, 27 May 2015. Russia's 2014 Military Doctrine, Accessed September 21, 2016, https://www.offiziere.ch/wp-content/uploads-01/2015/08/Russia-s-2014-Military-Doctrine.pdf. "Russia admits that it has moved troops in Ukraine", The Telegraph, February 28, 2014. "Russia’s new tactics of war shouldn’t fool anyone", The Washington Post, August 27, 2014. "Russian attack jets buzz US warship in the riskiest encounter for years", The Guardian, April 13, 2016. "Rusya'dan Karadeniz açıklaması", Hurriyet, September 14, 2016. RÜHLE, Michael and Julius Grubliaukas, "Energy as Part of Hybrid Warfare", European Security and Defence, April 2015. SHARKOV, Damien "Russia to unveil new $1.4 billion Black Sea Fleet Base near Crimea", Newsweek, July 28, 2016, Accessed August 17, 2016, http://europe.newsweek.com/russia-unveil-new-14-bn-black-sea-fleet-base-four-years-484974?rm=eu. SHARKOV, Damien "NATO to strengthen in Black Sea Region despite Russia warning", Newsweek, June 15, 2016, Accessed September 29, 2016, http://europe.newsweek.com/nato-strengthen-black-sea-despite-russia-warning-470717 SHUSTER, Simon "Putin’s Confessions on Crimea Expose Kremlin Media", TIME, Accessed August 11, 2016, http://time.com/3752827/putin-media-kremlin-crimea-ukraine/. TUCK, Christopher Understanding Land Warfare, London and New York: Routledge, 2014. VANDIVER, John "SACEUR: Allies must prepare for Russia ‘hybrid war’", Stars and Stripes, 04 September 04, 2014, Accessed August 11, 2016, http://www.stripes.com/news/saceur-allies-must-prepare-for-russia-hybrid-war-1.301464. Vladimir Putin’s interview with Radio Europe 1 and TF1 TV channel, June 04, 2014, Accessed July 28, 2016, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/45832. WALKER, Robert G. "Spec Fi: The U.S. Marine Corps and Special Operations”, PhD diss., Monterey, Naval Post-Graduate School, 1998. WILLIAMS, Carol J. "Canada says its frigate buzzed by Russian warplanes during NATO drill", Los Angeles Times, September 09, 2014.