Average Wind Speed Prediction in Giresun-Kümbet Plateau Region with Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

In order to estimate the electricity generation capacity and schedule the supply for vendor needs, wind speed prediction is crucial for wind power plant frameworks. Prior to the installation of the wind power plants, a reliable wind behaviour model is neccesary. To have such a model, wind data is recorded periodically. In this study, hourly recorded meteorological data of actual pressure, relative humidity, temperature, wind direction and average wind speed for the year 2023 were obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology for the Kümbet plateau region of Giresun province. The data is used to accurately predict the future wind speed for the region. Matlab Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is utilized. Actual pressure, relative humidity, temperature and wind direction parameters are defined as input in the prediction process. 85% of the data set is used as training data and remainin 15% data set is used for testing data. An optimization process is applied to determine the number of hidden layers to have the prediction value with the smallest error. Bayesian Regularization training process was performed by seeing that the hidden layer has the lowest error at 90 neurons. Performance evaluations are performed with Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (R) metrics. The values of the metrics for the test data are 26.7137, 5.1685, 3.5055 and 0.7457 respectively. The results show that, ANN based model is useful for the wind speed prediction over the region.

Keywords

• Wind speed
• Artificial neural networks
• Forecasting
• Giresun

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