Long-term forecasting of energy, electricity and active power demand – Bosnia and Herzegovina case study

Abstract

— Accurate forecast of electricity consumption is important for every electric power company because it determines the dynamics and characteristics of future construction of power facilities. Speaking in the long term, if the forecasts were too low or high, it could cause a number of adverse events leading electricity companies in the generation deficit or complex financial problems due to excessive investment in generating facilities that are not fully utilized. This paper presents the results of the forecast energy demand, electricity and active power of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) system, using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) methodology. Modelling of base year is done on the basis of available statistical data and trends in individual sectors upon trends in other European countries. Results were compared with forecasts that were prepared by other methods in other time periods

Keywords

• -

References

1. M. Kankal, A. Akpınar, MI Komurcu, TS Ozsahin TS, “Modeling and forecasting of Turkey’s energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables”, App. Energy. 88, 1927–1939, 2011.
2. HK Alfares, M Nazeeruddin, “Electric load forecasting: literature survey and classifcation of methods”, Int. J. of Sys. Sci. 33, 23-34, 2002.
3. T. Konjic, “Using Fuzzy Inference System to Demand Forecasting in Electric Power Distribution System”, Dissertation, University of Tuzla, 2004.
4. R. Mamlook, O. Badran, E. Abdulhadi, E, “A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting”, Energy Policy. 37, 1239–124, 2009.
5. Y. Chakhchoukh, P. Panciatici, L. Mili, “Electric Load Forecasting Based on Statistical Robust Methods”, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems. 26, 982– 991, 2011.
6. Y. Aslan, S. Yavasca, C. Yasar, “Long term electric peak load forecasting of Kutahya using different approaches”, Int. J. on Tech. and Phys. Probl. of Engin. 3, 87-91, 2011.
7. TQD Khoa, LM Phuong, PTT Binh, NTH Lien, “Application of Wavelet and Neural Network To Long-term Load Forecasting”, Proc. of the Int. Conf. on Power System Technology-POWERCON. 840-844, 2004. [8] Int. Atomic Energy Agency IAEA: http://www- pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/CMS-18_web.pdf
8. Statistical data on http://www.wri.org/charts-maps, 2010

9. Independent System Operator of Bosnia and Herzegovina, ''Indicative Development Plan 2012-2021' , Sarajevo, 2011. (in Bosnian) Study of the energy sector in B&H, Project, Consortium – Group of authors, study/files/final_e/m1c_fr.pdf, 2008. bank, World
10. http://www.eihp.hr/bh
11. A. Imamović, E. Dedović, T. Kovačina T, “Electricity forecast in Elektroprivreda BiH untill 2010”, Sarajevo. (In Bosnian), 1998.
12. S. Avdakovic, E. Becirovic, N. Hasanspahic, A. Lukac, A. Tuhcic, J. Karadza, D. Pesut, AK Loncarevic, “Study of long term energy and power demand forecasting in Elektroprivreda B&H - Sarajevo (2010. - 2030.)”, In Bosnian, 2011.