Long-term forecasting of energy, electricity and active power demand – Bosnia and Herzegovina case study

Year 2015, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 11 - 16, 27.02.2015

S. Avdaković E. Bećirović N. Hasanspahić M. Musić A. Merzić A. Tuhčić J. Karadža D. Pešut A. Kinderman Lončarević

Abstract

— Accurate forecast of electricity consumption is important for every electric power company because it determines the dynamics and characteristics of future construction of power facilities. Speaking in the long term, if the forecasts were too low or high, it could cause a number of adverse events leading electricity companies in the generation deficit or complex financial problems due to excessive investment in generating facilities that are not fully utilized. This paper presents the results of the forecast energy demand, electricity and active power of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) system, using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) methodology. Modelling of base year is done on the basis of available statistical data and trends in individual sectors upon trends in other European countries. Results were compared with forecasts that were prepared by other methods in other time periods

Keywords

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