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Exports as a determinant of economic growth: panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-sectional dependence for developing asian countries

Year 2013, Volume: 24 Issue: 86, 27 - 42, 01.03.2013

İsmet Göçer

Abstract

In this study, the effects of exports on economic growth were analyzed for Developing Asian Countries by using data over the period 1980-2012 via the panel data analysis methods which consider cross-sectional dependency and multiple structural breaks. Cross-sectional dependence has been analyzed with CDLMadj of Pesaran and Yamagata (2008) and it was seen cross-sectional dependence among these countries. Stationarity of the series has been tested by means of the PANKPSS panel unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005). It was seen series non-stationary in level and they became stationary in the first difference. Cointegration relationship between series was tested via the panel cointegration test with multiple structural breaks by developed Basher and Westerlund (2009) and cointegration relationship has been observed. Cointegration coefficients were estimated by means of the CCE and CCMGE methods by developed Pesaran (2006b). In the result of analysis, it has been determined that exports affects to economic growth positive and significantly, percent 10 increase in export, increases the economic growth by percent 1 in these countries.

Keywords

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References

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  • Anoruo, E. (2000), Exports And Economic Growth: An Error Correction Model. Department of Management Science and Economics, Coppin State College, 25 Mayıs 2013 tarihinde http://coin.wne.uw.edu.pl/~ lgoczek/pdf/macroeconometrics4r.pdf adresinden erişildi
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  • Basher, S.A. ve Westerlund, J. (2009). Panel Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model
  • Economic Modelling, 26, 506-513
  • Blecker, R.A. ve Razmi, A. (2009). Export-Led Growth, Real Exchange Rates and the Fallacy of Composition. RePEc Working Paper, No. 22
  • Breitung, J. (2005). A Parametric Approach to the Estimation of Cointegrating Vectors in Panel Data
  • Econometric Reviews, 24(2), 151-173
  • Breuer, B., Mcnown, R. ve Wallace, M. (2002). Series-specific Unit Root Test with Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(5), 527-546
  • Breusch, T.S ve Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-53
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., Barrio-Castro, T.D. ve Lopez-Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the Panels: An Application to the GDP Per Capita. Econometrics Journal, 8,159-175
  • Choi, I. (2001). Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 229- 272
  • Charemza, W.W. ve Deadman, D.F. (1997). New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling. Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Second Edition, Edward Elgar Publishing, Chelthenham, UK
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  • Demir, O. ve Üzümcü, A. (2003). İçsel Büyümenin Kaynakları. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 17(3-4), 17-38
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  • Feder, G. (1982). On Export and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12, 59-73
  • Gboyega, A. (2003). Democracy and Development: The Imperative of Local Governance, An Inaugural Lecture. University of Ibadan, 6-7
  • Ghirmay, T., Grabowski, R. ve Sharma, S.C. (2001). Exports, Investment, Efficiency and Economic Growth in LDC: An Empirical Investigation. Applied Economics, 33(6), 689-700 Grossman, G.M. ve Helpman, E. (1991). Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(1), 43-61
  • Guru, G.K.K. (2012). Relationships Among Export, FDI and Growth in India: An Application of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing Approach. Journal of International Business Research, 11(1)
  • Güloğlu, B. ve İspir, M.S. (2011). Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specifc Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey. Ege Academic Review, 11(2), 205-215
  • Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels. Econometrics Journal, 3, 148-161
  • Harrison, A. (1996). Openness And Growth: A Time Series, Cross-Country Analysis For Developing Countries. Journal For Development Economics, 48(2), 419-447
  • Harrod, R. F. (1939). An Essay on Dynamic Theory. Economic Journal, 49, 14-33
  • Im, K., Pesaran, H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74
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  • Islam, M.N. (1998). Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Testing For Cointegration and Causality
  • Applied Economics, 30, 415-425
  • Kaldor, N. (1957). A Model of Economic Growth. The Economic Journal, 67(268), 591-624
  • Kılavuz, E. ve Altay Topcu, B. (2012). Export and Economic Growth in the Case of the Manufacturing Industry: Panel Data Analysis of Developing Countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(2), 201-215
  • Kösekahyaoğlu, L. ve Şentürk, C. (2006). İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Testi: Türkiye ve Yeni Gelişen Ekonomiler Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir İnceleme. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, S.B.E
  • Dergisi, 2(4), 23-45
  • Krueger, A. (1990). Perspectives on Trade and Development. Chicago: University of Chicago Press
  • Krugman, P.R. (1997). The Age of Diminished Expectation. Cambridge: MIT Press
  • Kwan, A.C.C., Cotsomitis, J.A. ve Kwok, B.K.C. (1999). Exports, Economic Growth and Structural Invariance: Evidence from Some Asian NICs. Applied Economics, 31(4), 493-498
  • Lee, R. (2000). A Cross-Cultural Perspective on Intergenerational Transfers and the Economic Life Cycle. In Andrew Mason and Georges Tapinos, eds., Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations, Oxford University Press, Oxford
  • Levin, A., Lin, C.F. ve Chu, C.S.J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108,1-24
  • Liu, J., Wu, S. ve Zidek, J.V. (1997). On Segmented Multivariate Regression. Statistica Sinica, 7, 497- 525
  • Liu, X., Shu, C. ve Sinclair, P. (2009). Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Asian Economies. Applied Economics, 41, 1603-1612
  • Lucas, R. E. (1988). On The Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 25-50
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652
  • Miankhel, A.K., Thangavelu, S.M. ve Kalirajan, K. (2009). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Economic Growth in Selected Emerging Countries: Multivariate VAR Analysis. 11 Ekim 2012 tarihinde http://ssrn.com/abstract=1526387 adresinden erişildi
  • Mishra, P.K. (2011). The Dynamics of Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth in India
  • International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 4 (2), 53-70
  • Özsoylu, A. F. ve Algan, N. (2011). Dünya Ekonomisinin Yeni Aktörleri BRIC. 1. Baskı, Karahan Yayınları, No. 130, Adana
  • Park, J.H. ve Prime, P.B. (1997). Export Performance and Growth in China: a Cross-Provincial Analysis. Applied Economics, 29(10), 1353-1363
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435
  • Peseran, M.H. (2006a). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Crosssection Dependecy
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  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127
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Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicisi olarak ihracat: gelişmekte olan Asya ülkeleri için yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme analizi

Year 2013, Volume: 24 Issue: 86, 27 - 42, 01.03.2013

İsmet Göçer

Abstract

Bu çalışmada; ihracatın, ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri, gelişmekte olan Asya Ülkeleri için, 1980-2012 dönemi verileri kullanılarak, yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve birden fazla yapısal kırılmayı göz önünde bulunduran panel veri analizi yöntemleriyle incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, yatay kesit bağımlılığı; Pesaran ve Yamagata (2008) CDLMadj testiyle incelenmiş ve ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığının olduğu görülmüştür. Serilerin durağanlığı; Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2005) PANKPSS çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel birim kök testiyle sınanmış ve serilerin düzey değerlerinde durağan olmayıp, birinci farkları alındığında durağan hale geldiği görülmüştür. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı; Basher ve Westerlund (2009) tarafından geliştirilen çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme testiyle incelenmiş ve seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin var olduğu belirlenmiştir. Eşbütünleşme katsayıları; Pesaran (2006b) tarafından geliştirilen CCE ve CCMGE yöntemleriyle tahmin edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda; bu ülkelerde ihracatın ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif ve anlamlı düzeyde etkilediği, ihracatta meydana gelen yüzde10 oranındaki artışın, ekonomik büyümeyi yüzde 1 oranında arttırdığı tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

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References

  • Ağayev, S. (2011). İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 12 Geçiş Ekonomisi Örneğinde Panel Eştümleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizleri. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 241-254
  • Ahmad, J. ve Harnhirun, S. (1995). Unit Roots and Cointegration in Estimating Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the ASEAN Countries. Economics Letters, 49, 329-334
  • Alesina, A. ve Rodrik, D. (1999). Distributive Politics and Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, 443-465
  • Anoruo, E. (2000), Exports And Economic Growth: An Error Correction Model. Department of Management Science and Economics, Coppin State College, 25 Mayıs 2013 tarihinde http://coin.wne.uw.edu.pl/~ lgoczek/pdf/macroeconometrics4r.pdf adresinden erişildi
  • Arısoy, E., Bayar, G. ve Soranlar, B. (2004). Asya'nın Devi: Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti. Dış Ticaret Dergisi, 32, 1-17
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes
  • Econometrica, 66(1), 47-78
  • Bai, J. ve Ng, S. (2004). A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration. Econometrica, 72(4), 1127- 1177
  • Basher, S.A. ve Westerlund, J. (2009). Panel Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model
  • Economic Modelling, 26, 506-513
  • Blecker, R.A. ve Razmi, A. (2009). Export-Led Growth, Real Exchange Rates and the Fallacy of Composition. RePEc Working Paper, No. 22
  • Breitung, J. (2005). A Parametric Approach to the Estimation of Cointegrating Vectors in Panel Data
  • Econometric Reviews, 24(2), 151-173
  • Breuer, B., Mcnown, R. ve Wallace, M. (2002). Series-specific Unit Root Test with Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(5), 527-546
  • Breusch, T.S ve Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-53
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., Barrio-Castro, T.D. ve Lopez-Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the Panels: An Application to the GDP Per Capita. Econometrics Journal, 8,159-175
  • Choi, I. (2001). Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 229- 272
  • Charemza, W.W. ve Deadman, D.F. (1997). New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling. Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Second Edition, Edward Elgar Publishing, Chelthenham, UK
  • Çakmak, E. ve Temurlenk, M.S. (1995). Causality Relationship Between Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for Turkey. Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 50(1-2), 129-143
  • Çil Yavuz, N. (2006). Türkiye’de İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik Analizi. Prof. Dr
  • Turan Yazgan’a Armağan
  • Dar, A.B., Bhanja, N., Samantaraya, A. ve Tiwari, A.K. (2013). Export Led Growth or Growth Led Export Hypothesis in India: Evidence Based on Time-Frequency Approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(7), 869-880
  • Dawson, P.J. ve Hubbard, L.J. (2004). Exports and Economic Growth in Central and East European Countries During Transition. Applied Economics, 36(16), 1819-1824
  • Demir, O. ve Üzümcü, A. (2003). İçsel Büyümenin Kaynakları. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 17(3-4), 17-38
  • Dollar, D. (1992). Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence From 95 Ldcs, 1976-1985. Economic Development And Cultural Change, 40(3), 523- 544
  • Domar, D.E. (1948). The Problem of Capital Accumulation. The American Economic Review, 38(5), 777-794
  • Dreger, C. ve Herzer, D. (2012). A Further Examination of The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis, Empir Econ FIW Working Paper, No. 084
  • Ekanayake, E.M. (1999). Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models. Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), 43-56
  • Ekonomi Bakanlığı (2013). Güney Kore Cumhuriyeti Ülke Profili, 25 Mayıs 2013 tarihinde http://www.ibp.gov.tr/pg/section-pg- ulke.cfm?id=GyüzdeC3yüzdeBCneyyüzde20Koreyüzde20Cum adresinden erişildi
  • Eusuf, M.A. ve Ahmed, M. (2007). Causality between Export and Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries. MPRA Paper, No. 21027
  • Feder, G. (1982). On Export and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12, 59-73
  • Gboyega, A. (2003). Democracy and Development: The Imperative of Local Governance, An Inaugural Lecture. University of Ibadan, 6-7
  • Ghirmay, T., Grabowski, R. ve Sharma, S.C. (2001). Exports, Investment, Efficiency and Economic Growth in LDC: An Empirical Investigation. Applied Economics, 33(6), 689-700 Grossman, G.M. ve Helpman, E. (1991). Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(1), 43-61
  • Guru, G.K.K. (2012). Relationships Among Export, FDI and Growth in India: An Application of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing Approach. Journal of International Business Research, 11(1)
  • Güloğlu, B. ve İspir, M.S. (2011). Is Natural Rate of Unemployment or Hysteresis? Sector-Specifc Panel Unit Root Test Analysis for Turkey. Ege Academic Review, 11(2), 205-215
  • Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels. Econometrics Journal, 3, 148-161
  • Harrison, A. (1996). Openness And Growth: A Time Series, Cross-Country Analysis For Developing Countries. Journal For Development Economics, 48(2), 419-447
  • Harrod, R. F. (1939). An Essay on Dynamic Theory. Economic Journal, 49, 14-33
  • Im, K., Pesaran, H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74
  • IMF (2013), World Economic Outlook Database, April. 26 Haziran 2013 tarihinde http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/weodata/weoselgr.aspx adresinden erişildi
  • Islam, M.N. (1998). Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Testing For Cointegration and Causality
  • Applied Economics, 30, 415-425
  • Kaldor, N. (1957). A Model of Economic Growth. The Economic Journal, 67(268), 591-624
  • Kılavuz, E. ve Altay Topcu, B. (2012). Export and Economic Growth in the Case of the Manufacturing Industry: Panel Data Analysis of Developing Countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(2), 201-215
  • Kösekahyaoğlu, L. ve Şentürk, C. (2006). İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Testi: Türkiye ve Yeni Gelişen Ekonomiler Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir İnceleme. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, S.B.E
  • Dergisi, 2(4), 23-45
  • Krueger, A. (1990). Perspectives on Trade and Development. Chicago: University of Chicago Press
  • Krugman, P.R. (1997). The Age of Diminished Expectation. Cambridge: MIT Press
  • Kwan, A.C.C., Cotsomitis, J.A. ve Kwok, B.K.C. (1999). Exports, Economic Growth and Structural Invariance: Evidence from Some Asian NICs. Applied Economics, 31(4), 493-498
  • Lee, R. (2000). A Cross-Cultural Perspective on Intergenerational Transfers and the Economic Life Cycle. In Andrew Mason and Georges Tapinos, eds., Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations, Oxford University Press, Oxford
  • Levin, A., Lin, C.F. ve Chu, C.S.J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108,1-24
  • Liu, J., Wu, S. ve Zidek, J.V. (1997). On Segmented Multivariate Regression. Statistica Sinica, 7, 497- 525
  • Liu, X., Shu, C. ve Sinclair, P. (2009). Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Asian Economies. Applied Economics, 41, 1603-1612
  • Lucas, R. E. (1988). On The Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 25-50
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652
  • Miankhel, A.K., Thangavelu, S.M. ve Kalirajan, K. (2009). Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Economic Growth in Selected Emerging Countries: Multivariate VAR Analysis. 11 Ekim 2012 tarihinde http://ssrn.com/abstract=1526387 adresinden erişildi
  • Mishra, P.K. (2011). The Dynamics of Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth in India
  • International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 4 (2), 53-70
  • Özsoylu, A. F. ve Algan, N. (2011). Dünya Ekonomisinin Yeni Aktörleri BRIC. 1. Baskı, Karahan Yayınları, No. 130, Adana
  • Park, J.H. ve Prime, P.B. (1997). Export Performance and Growth in China: a Cross-Provincial Analysis. Applied Economics, 29(10), 1353-1363
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435
  • Peseran, M.H. (2006a). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Crosssection Dependecy
  • Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0346
  • Pesaran, M.H. (2006b). Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967-1012
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127
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There are 89 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

İsmet Göçer This is me

Publication Date March 1, 2013
Published in Issue Year 2013 Volume: 24 Issue: 86

Cite

APA Göçer, İ. (2013). Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicisi olarak ihracat: gelişmekte olan Asya ülkeleri için yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme analizi. Bankacılar, 24(86), 27-42.
AMA Göçer İ. Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicisi olarak ihracat: gelişmekte olan Asya ülkeleri için yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme analizi. Bankacılar. March 2013;24(86):27-42.
Chicago Göçer, İsmet. “Ekonomik büyümenin Belirleyicisi Olarak Ihracat: Gelişmekte Olan Asya ülkeleri için Yatay Kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı Panel eşbütünleşme Analizi”. Bankacılar 24, no. 86 (March 2013): 27-42.
EndNote Göçer İ (March 1, 2013) Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicisi olarak ihracat: gelişmekte olan Asya ülkeleri için yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme analizi. Bankacılar 24 86 27–42.
IEEE İ. Göçer, “Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicisi olarak ihracat: gelişmekte olan Asya ülkeleri için yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme analizi”, Bankacılar, vol. 24, no. 86, pp. 27–42, 2013.
ISNAD Göçer, İsmet. “Ekonomik büyümenin Belirleyicisi Olarak Ihracat: Gelişmekte Olan Asya ülkeleri için Yatay Kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı Panel eşbütünleşme Analizi”. Bankacılar 24/86 (March 2013), 27-42.
JAMA Göçer İ. Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicisi olarak ihracat: gelişmekte olan Asya ülkeleri için yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme analizi. Bankacılar. 2013;24:27–42.
MLA Göçer, İsmet. “Ekonomik büyümenin Belirleyicisi Olarak Ihracat: Gelişmekte Olan Asya ülkeleri için Yatay Kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı Panel eşbütünleşme Analizi”. Bankacılar, vol. 24, no. 86, 2013, pp. 27-42.
Vancouver Göçer İ. Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicisi olarak ihracat: gelişmekte olan Asya ülkeleri için yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme analizi. Bankacılar. 2013;24(86):27-42.