HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASALARI EKONOMİK AKTİVİTEDEKİ DEĞİŞİMLERİN ÖNCÜ GÖSTERGELERİNDEN BİRİ MİDİR?

Year 2021, , 47 - 69, 31.12.2021

Önder Büberkökü , Celal Kızıldere

https://doi.org/10.38120/banusad.984338

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye, Brezilya, G. Kore ve Hindistan’dan oluşan dört gelişen piyasa ekonomisi için hisse senedi piyasalarının ekonomik aktivitenin öncü göstergelerinden biri olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. Hisse senedi piyasalarını temsilen ilgili ülkelerin gösterge borsa endeksleri, ekonomik aktiviteyi temsilen sanayi üretim endeksleri kullanılmıştır. Analizlerde Toda-Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testinin yanı sıra en küçük kareler yöntemi ile kantil regresyon (Quantile regression) yönteminden de yararlanılmıştır. Çalışma bulguları hisse senedi piyasalarının ekonomik aktivitedeki değişimlerin öncü göstergelerinden biri olabileceği sonucuna işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Hisse senedi piyasaları, Ekonomik aktivite, Gelişen piyasa ekonomileri

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