Türkiye’nin Yakın Dönem Enflasyon Deneyimi: Talep Çekişli ve Maliyet İtişli Enflasyonist Etkilere Göre Enflasyonun Temel Sebepleri ve Ekonomi Politikası Açısından Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 59 - 83, 31.12.2022

Ömer Faruk Biçen

Öz

Türkiye ekonomisi 2001 yılında yaşadığı krizin ardından uygulanan yeni politikalar sayesinde uzun dönemli enflasyon ataletini kırmayı ve fiyat istikrarını sağlamayı başarmıştır. Fakat 2010’lu yılların ortalarından itibaren yaşanan gelişmeler bu süreci tersine çevirmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisi 2004 yılından itibaren yaşadığı tek haneli enflasyon deneyimini sürdürememiş ve 2017 yılından itibaren çift haneli enflasyonist sürece girmiştir. Bu çalışmada da Türkiye’nin yakın dönem enflasyon deneyimi ve bu sürecin nedenleri araştırılmaktadır. 2016 yılı Ocak ayından başlayarak 2022 yılı Şubat ayına kadar geçen sürecin ele alındığı bu çalışmada uygulanan Gregory-Hansen yapısal kırılmalı koentegrasyon ve Hsiao nedensellik analizleri neticesinde, Tüketici ve Yurtiçi Üretici Fiyatlarına ait ana endeksler arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanılamamıştır. Fakat alt endeksler bazında bakıldığında, Tüketici Fiyatlarından Elektrik, Gaz, Buhar ve İklimlendirme Üretimi ve Dağıtımı kapsamındaki ürünlere doğru ve Yurtiçi Üretici Fiyatlarından Konut fiyatlarına doğru tek yönlü, Yurtiçi Üretici Fiyatları ile Gıda ve Alkolsüz İçecekler grubuna ait ürünlerin fiyatları arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine ulaşılmıştır. Kısaca bu dönemde hem maliyet itişli hem de talep çekişli enflasyonist yapılar etkili olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Ekonomi Politikası, Para Politikası, Nedensellik Analizi

Turkey's Recent Inflation Experience: Main Causes of Inflation According to Demand-pull and Cost-push Inflationary Effects and An Evaluation in Terms of Economy Policy

Öz

Turkish economy succeeded in breaking the long-term inflation inertia and maintaining price stability, thanks to the new policies implemented after the crisis in 2001. However, developments since the mid-2010s have reversed this process. The Turkish economy has not been able to sustain its single-digit inflation experience since 2004 and has entered a double-digit inflationary period since 2017. In this study, Turkey's recent inflation experience and the reasons for this process are investigated. As a result of the Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration and Hsiao causality analyses applied in this study, which covers the process from January 2016 to February 2022, no causality relationship was found between the main indices of Consumer and Domestic Producer Prices. However, on the basis of sub-indices, a unidirectional causality relationship has been reached from Consumer Prices to Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Production and Distribution products and from Domestic Producer Prices to Housing prices, and bidirectional causality between Domestic Producer Prices and the prices of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages group products. In short, both cost-push and demand-pull inflationary structures were effective in this period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation, Turkish Economy; Economy Policy, Monetary Policy, Causality Analysis

Kaynakça

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