Türkiye’de Yurtiçi Krediler ile Ekonomik Büyüme ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişkilerin Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Analizi ile Tespiti

Year 2022, , 173 - 187, 22.09.2022

Yusuf Tuna Ayça Doğaner , Güldenur Çetin

https://doi.org/10.46520/bddkdergisi.1178334

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between GDP and inflation and domestic
loans given by banks to the private sector by using time series models. In this study, in which the
1972-2020 annual data for Turkiye were used, Harvey et al. (2008) Harvey and Leybourne (2007)
linearity tests, traditional unit root tests for linearly determined series and Kapetanios, Shin and Snell
(2003) (KSS) unit root tests for nonlinear series were performed. After the series were determined to
be stationary, Kapetanios, Shin and Snell (KSS) (2006) cointegration test was performed. According to
the results of the analysis, no cointegrated relationship was found between the GDP and inflation and
domestic loans given by banks to the private sector in Turkiye. As a result, it can be said that there is
no pass-through effect on GDP and inflation rates as a result of the increase/decrease in loans given
by banks to the private sector in Turkiye.

Determining the Relationships Between Domestic Credits, Economic Growth and Inflation in Turkiye by Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between GDP and inflation and domestic
loans given by banks to the private sector by using time series models. In this study, in which the
1972-2020 annual data for Turkiye were used, Harvey et al. (2008) Harvey and Leybourne (2007)
linearity tests, traditional unit root tests for linearly determined series and Kapetanios, Shin and Snell
(2003) (KSS) unit root tests for nonlinear series were performed. After the series were determined to
be stationary, Kapetanios, Shin and Snell (KSS) (2006) cointegration test was performed. According to
the results of the analysis, no cointegrated relationship was found between the GDP and inflation and
domestic loans given by banks to the private sector in Turkiye. As a result, it can be said that there is
no pass-through effect on GDP and inflation rates as a result of the increase/decrease in loans given
by banks to the private sector in Turkiye.

Keywords

Domestic Loan, GDP, Inflation, Linearity test

References

• 1. Akbulaev, N. and Huseynova, A. (2019). Examining The Role Of Credit Volume On Economic Growth: The Case Of Azerbaijan, International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development. 37th International Scientific Conference On Economic And Social Development - Socio Economic Problems Of Sustainable Development. 1179-1185.
• 2. Ceylan, S. and Durkaya, M. (2011). Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı - Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi , 24 (2):21-35 .
• 3. Göçer, İ., Mercan, M. and Bölükbaş, M. (2015). Bankacılık Sektörü Kredilerinin İstihdam Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eş Bütünleşme Analizi. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 33(2):65-84.
• 4. Harvey, D.I. and Leybourne, S.J. (2007). Testing for Time Series Linearity. Econometrics Journal, 10:149-165.
• 5. Harvey, D.I., Leybourne, S.J. and Xiao, B. (2008). A Powerful Test for Linearity the Order Integration is Unknown. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics&Econometrics, 12(3), Article 2: 1-22.
• 6. Kamacı, A. , Ceyhan, M. S. and Peçe, M. A. (2017). Kredi Hacminin Para Arzı Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, ICMEB17 Özel Sayısı:400-409 .
• 7. Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y. and Snell, A. (2003). Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112:359-379.
• 8. Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y. and Snell, A. (2006). Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models. Econometric Theory, 22(2): 279-303.
• 9. Kar, M. and Pentecost, E. J. (2000). Financial Development And Economic Growth in Turkiye: Further Evidence On The Causality Issue. Loughborough University Economic Research Paper, No. 00/27.
• 10. Karamelikli, H. and Keskingöz, H. (2017). Finansal Gelişme Bileşenlerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1): 683-701.
• 11. King, R. G. and Levine, R. (1993). Finance And Growth, Schumperer Might Be Right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3): 717-737.
• 12. Özcan, B. and Ari, A. (2011). Finansal Gelişme Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Bir Analizi: Türkiye Örneği. Business and Economics Research Journal, 2(1):121-142.
• 13. Pata, U. K. and Ağca, A. (2018). Finansal Gelişme Ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme Ve Nedensellik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Osmaniye Korkut Ata Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2 (2):115-128.
• 14. Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14:174- 189.
• 15. Shan, J. and Jianhong, Q. (2006). Does Financial Development ‘Lead’ Economic Growth? The Case Of China. Annuals of Economics and Finance, 1:197-216.
• 16. Turgut, A. and Ertay, H. İ. (2016). Bankacılık Sektörünün Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi. Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8 (4):114-128.