Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımların Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan Örnekleminde Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 87 - 116, 01.06.2014

İsmet Göçer Osman Peker

Öz

Bu çalışmada, YDY’nin cari işlemler dengesi üzerindeki etkileri, Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan için, Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. 2009 çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Maki 2012 çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ve dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi yardımıyla, 1980-2011 dönemi verileriyle analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre; YDY %10 oranında arttığında, cari işlemler açığının Türkiye’de %3, Hindistan’da %4.1 oranında azaldığı, Çin’de ise %3.8 oranında cari işlemler fazlasının gerçekleştiği tespit edilmiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırımlar, Cari İşlemler Dengesi, Çoklu

Foreign Direct Investments’ Effects on the Balance of Current Account: Cointegration Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks in Turkey, China and India Sample

Öz

Foreign Direct Investments’ Effects on the Balance of Current Account: Cointegration Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks in Turkey, China and India SampleIn this study the effects of Foreign Direct Investment FDI on current account deficit were analyzed with multiple structural breaks unit root test of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. 2009 , multiple structural breaks cointegration test of Maki 2012 and dynamic ordinary smallest square method for Turkey, China and India by using 1980-2011 period data. According to the empirical findings; 10% increase of FDI leads to an decrease on the current account deficit in Turkey by 3%, India by 4.1%; on the contrary, it has been determined an increase on the current account surplus in China by 3.8%

Anahtar Kelimeler

Foreign Direct Investment, Balance of Current Account, Cointegration Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks.

Kaynakça

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