The Relationship Between Manufacturing Industry Bank Loans and Manufacturing Industry D-PPI: Loan-Inflation Spiral
Abstract
It has been observed that the manufacturing industry D-PPI rates, interest rates applied commercial loans (TL) by the banking sector, bank loans extended to the manufacturing industry and NPLs of these loans have increased since 2020. In terms of the sustainability of the manufacturing industry, which has an important place in Turkey’s economic development, the manufacturing industry D-PPI ratios and bank loans extended to the manufacturing industry are of great importance. In this research, it is aimed to investigate the relationship between the manufacturing industry D-PPI rates, the weighted average of the interest rates applied to commercial loans (TL) by the banking sector, bank loans extended to the manufacturing industry and NPLs of these loans. For this purpose, the Engle-Granger cointegration test and the Granger causality test were applied to the variables in question and the relationships between the variables were analyzed. As a result of the analyzes, it has been detected that all variables are mutually cointegrated in the long term and there is a mutual relationship between the non-performing manufacturing industry loans with the manufacturing industry D-PPI rate and the interest rate applied to commercial loans (TL). In addition, it has been determined that there is a one-way causality relationship from bank loans extended to the manufacturing industry to the manufacturing industry D-PPI rate, the interest rate applied to commercial loans (TL) and non-performing manufacturing industry loans. In the research, it was concluded that the manufacturing industry inflation and loans have become a spiral, and policy recommendations have been made for the banking sector and decision-makers.
Keywords
References
- Akinboade, O. A., & Makina, D. (2010). Econometric Analysis of Bank Lending and Business Cycles in South Africa. Applied Economics, 42(29), 3803-3811. Doi:10.1080/00036840802360138.
- Akosah, N. K. (2013). Dynamics of Inflation and Financial Development: Empirical Evidence from Ghana. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(15), 20-37.
- Alev, N. (2019). Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı (2006:Q1-2018:Q2 Dönemi). Uluslararası Ekonomi, İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, 3(1), 1-18. Doi:10.29216/ueip.471966.
- Arslan, İ., & Yapraklı, S. (2008). Banka Kredileri ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz (1983-2007). İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 0(7), 88-103.
- Arsѐne, M. F., & Guy-Paulin, D. D. (2013). An Econometric Analysis of the Nexus between Credit to the Private Sector, Inflation and Economic Growth: Case of Cameroon 1965 – 2010. Global Journal of Management and Business Research Interdisciplinary, 13(7), 41-53.
- Ateşoğlu, H. S. (1993). Manufacturing and Economic Growth in the United States. Applied Economics, 25(1), 67-69. Doi:10.1080/00036849300000114.
- Bölükbaşı, Ö. F., Ürkmez, E., & Karamustafa, O. (2018). Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Kırılganlığı: Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(18. EYİ Özel Sayısı), 485-496. Doi:10.18092/ulikidince.349833.
- Çifter, A., Yılmazer, S., & Çifter, E. (2009). Analysis of Sectoral Credit Default Cycle Dependency with Wavelet Networks:Evidence from Turkey. Economic Modelling, 26(6), 1382-1388. Doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2009.07.014.
- Demirci, N. S. (2017). İmalat Sanayi Sektöründe Üretim ve Banka Kredileri İlişkisi: Türkiye için Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 19(1), 35-61. Doi:10.16953/deusbed.38804.
- Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. Doi:10.2307/2286348.
