Investigating the Relationship Between the Financial Conditions Index with Economic Growth and Net Capital Inflow: Causality Analysis for Türkiye
Abstract
The global economic crisis, which had a devastating effect worldwide with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brother's investment bank in the United States of America in 2008, revealed that countries should indicate risks and take precautions accordingly. In this sense, the importance of the Financial Conditions Index (FCI), which was created by considering the monetary policy instruments of the country's central banks and various macroeconomic and financial variables as a whole, has also increased. FCI, the index that has taken place in the literature since the 1990s, with the growth of countries, has been investigated in empirical studies conducted after the global economic crisis. In this study, the related index is calculated using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and the data generated is analyzed with growth and net capital inflow items. According to the results of the related analysis, while there is bidirectional causality between FCI and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, one-way causality was found between FCI and net capital inflow. The index created accordingly is the Granger cause of the net capital inflow.
Keywords
Financial Conditions Index, Principal Component Analysis, Toda Yamamoto Analysis, Net Capital Inflow
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