Türkiye Ekonomisinde Cari Açığın Finansmanı: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 553 - 572, 30.06.2025

Erkan Ağaslan

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1619017

Abstract

Cari açık, son yıllarda Türkiye ekonomisinin en önemli sorunlarından biri haline gelmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisinin üretim yapısının ithalata bağımlı olması ve sermaye malları, yarı mamuller ve hammaddelerin toplam ithalatın büyük bir çoğunluğunu oluşturması bu sorunun büyümesine yol açmıştır. Cari işlemler açığının sürekli açık vermesi, finansmanını son derece önemli hale getirmektedir. Bu çalışmada cari açığın finansmanını açıklamak için Pesaran, Shin ve Smith (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak kısa ve uzun dönem etkileri analiz edilmiştir. Model tahmininde 2005Q4 - 2024Q2 dönemi için Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'ndan elde edilen Cari Açık, Resmi Rezervler, Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru, Özel Sektör Kredi Büyümesi, Dış Borç ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu değişkenler ve gecikmeli değerleri cari açığın finansmanında önemli arz etmektedir.

Keywords

Cari İşlemler Hesabı , ARDL Sınır Testi , FDI , Resmi Rezervler , Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru

Financing the Current Account Deficit in the Turkish Economy: ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Abstract

In recent decades, the current account deficit has become one of the most critical problems in the Turkish economy. The fact that the production structure of the Turkish economy is dependent on imports and that capital goods, semi-finished products and raw materials constitute the majority of total imports has led to the growth of this problem. The persistent deficit in the current account deficit makes its financing extremely important. To explain the funding of the current account deficit, the ARDL bounds test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) is used in this study to analyze the short and long-run effects. Current Account Deficit, Official Reserves, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Private Sector Credit Growth, External Debt, and Foreign Direct Investment variables obtained from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey for 2005Q4 - 2024Q2 are used in the model estimation. As a result of the analysis, it is concluded that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. These variables and their lagged values are essential in financing the current account deficit.

Keywords

Current Account , ARDL Bounds Test , FDI , Official Reserves , Real Effective Exchange Rate

References

• Afonso, A., Huart, F., Jalles, J. T., & Stanek, P. (2020). Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU. Portuguese Economic Journal, 19(2), 155–170. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-019-00168-x
• Ahmed, R., Jawaid, S. T., Tabasam, A. H., Iqbal, M. S., Gamli-Dovene, F. K., & Iqbal, M. J. (2023). Modelling the determinants and Sustainability of Current Account of Pakistan. Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, 26(2), 97–112. https://doi.org/10.2478/zireb-2023-0016
• Apergis, N., Katrakilidis, K. P., & Tabakis, N. M. (1998). Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece. International Advances in Economic Research, 4(4), 449–449. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02295702
• Apergis, N., Katrakilidis, K. P., & Tabakis, N. M. (2000). Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece. Applied Economics Letters, 7(9), 599–603. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850050059087
• Babatunde MA (2014) Are exports and imports cointegrated? Evidence from Nigeria. J Int Global Econ Stud 7(2):45–67
• Barnett, A., & Straub, R. (2008). What driveS U.S. CUrrent aCCoUnt FlUCtUationS? http://www.ecb.europa.eu Batdelger, T., & Kandil, M. (2012). Determinants of the current account balance in the United States. Applied Economics, 44(5), 653–669. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2010.518950
• Çelikkol, H. (2024). Finansal Gelişme ile Cari Denge Arasındaki İlişkinin Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Yaklaşımı ile Analizi: BRICS-T Ülkeleri Örneği. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(82), 383-395. https://doi.org/10.51290/dpusbe.1550641
• Destaings, N. N. (2017). Dynamics of Current Account Deficit: A Kenyan Experience. International Journal of Innovative Research and Development, 6(4). https://doi.org/10.24940/ijird/2017/v6/i4/apr17046
• Gnimassoun, B., & Coulibaly, I. (2014). Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter? Economic Modelling, 40, 208–226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.04.017
• Korucu Gümüşoğlu, N., & Alçın, S. (2019). THE IMPACT OF CAPITAL FLOWS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT FOR TURKEY. Journal of Life Economics, 6(1), 21-34. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.6.003
• Göçer, İ., & Mercan, M. (2011). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar(562), 33-33.
• Göçer, İ. (2013). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Nedenleri, Finansman Kalitesi ve Sürdürülebilirliği: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Eskişehir Osmangazi University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 8(1), 213–242.
• Husted, S. (1992). The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74(1), 159. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109554
• Ismail, H. Bin, & Baharumshah, A. Z. (2008). Malaysia’s current account deficits: an intertemporal optimization perspective. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 569–590. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-007-0179-5
• Kalyoncu, H. (2005). Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach. Prague Economic Papers, 14(1), 82–88. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.254
• Kalyoncu, H. (2006). International Intertemporal Solvency in OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Unit Root. Prague Economic Papers, 15(1), 44–49. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.275
• Kara, H., Küçük, H., Tiryaki, S. T., & Yüksel, C. (2014). IN SEARCH OF A REASONABLE CREDIT GROWTH RATE FOR TURKEY. Central Bank Review, 14, 1–14.
• Karahan, Ö. (2020). Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey. International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research, 13(2), 62–69. https://doi.org/10.25103/ijbesar.132.05
• Khadan, J., & Deonarine, A. (2020). Sustainability of current account balances in small states. Economics and Business Letters, 9(1), 14. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.9.1.2020.14-20
• Knight, D. S., Portugal-Perez, A., & Nedeljkovic, M. (2019). Turkey: An Empirical Assessment of the Determinants of the Current Account Balance. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (8982).
• Konya, Laszlo and Singh, Jai Pal, Are Indian Exports and Imports Cointegrated? (December, 22 2008). Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 8, No. 2, 2008, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1319420
• Kumar Narayan *, P., & Narayan, S. (2005). Are exports and imports cointegrated? Evidence from 22 least developed countries. Applied Economics Letters, 12(6), 375–378. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500067774
• Lau, E., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Haw, C. T. (2006). Current account: mean-reverting or random walk behavior? Japan and the World Economy, 18(1), 90–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2004.05.005
• Mercan, M. (2014). Budget Deficits Sustainable? An Empirical Analysis for OECD Countries. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 131, 258–263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.04.114
• Narayan, P. K., & Narayan, S. (2004). IS THERE A LONG‐RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS? EVIDENCE FROM TWO PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES. Economic Papers: A Journal of Applied Economics and Policy, 23(2), 152–164. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-3441.2004.tb00361.x
• Narayan, S., & Sriananthakumar, S. (2020). Are the Current Account Imbalances on a Sustainable Path? Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(9), 201. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13090201
• Ogus, A., & Sohrabji, N. (2008). On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 543–568. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-007-0178-6
• Onatunji, O. G. (2023). Sustainability of current account deficits in Nigeria: evidence from the asymmetric NARDL approach. SN Business & Economics, 3(10). Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00566-6
• Öznur, S., & Petek, A. (2021). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların cari açık üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 36(4), 843-856.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
• Peker, O. (2009). Türkiye’deki Cari Açık Sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Kocaeli University Journal of Social Sciences, 17, 164–174.
• Ruppert, K., & Stähler, N. (2022). What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies. Economic Modelling, 108, 105769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105769
• Sohrabji, N. (2010). Analyzing the sustainability of India’s current account position following the reforms of the early 1990s. Journal of Asia Business Studies, 4(2), 86-92.
• Türe, H. & Akdi, Y. (2005). Mevsimsel Kointegrasyon: Türkiye Verilerine Bir Uygulama, 7. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Düzenleyen: İstanbul Üniversitesi, 26-27 Mayıs 2005, 1-19.
• Yurdakul, F., & Cevher, E. (2015a). Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: The Conditional and Partial Granger Causality Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 26, 92–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(15)00884-9
• Yurdakul, F., & Cevher, E. (2015b). Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: The Conditional and Partial Granger Causality Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 26, 92–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(15)00884-9
• Yücel, A. G. F., & Yanar, A. G. R. (2005). Türkiye’de Cari işlem Açıkları Sürdürülebilir Mi? Zaman Serileri Perspektifinden Bir Bakış. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(2), 483-492.
• Zombanakis, G., Stylianou, C., & Andreou, A. P. (2009). The Greek Current Account Deficit: Is it Sustainable after All? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4165740