Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Seçilmiş Petrol İhracatçısı Ülkeleri için Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2019, , 1 - 11, 30.06.2019

Sabit Baimaganbetov Zhanture Zhetibayev , Elvira Alimkulova Ulmeken Makhanbetova

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.420438

Abstract

Petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişimler hem petrol ihracatçısı hem petrol ithalatçısı ülkelerinin makroekonomik değişkenleri üzerinde etkili olabilmektedir. Petrol fiyatlarındaki artış (azalış) petrol ihracatçısı ülkeler için iyi (kötü) haber iken, petrol ithlatçısı ülkeler için kötü haberdir. Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan petrol ihracatçısı ülkelerin arasından 10 ülke seçilmektedir. Bu ülkelerin 2003-2017 aylık verileri kullanılarak Brent tipi ham petrol fiyatlarının döviz kuru üzerindeki etkileri Westerlund (2007) panel eşbütünleşme testi yardımı ile araştırılmaktadır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgulara petrol fiyatlarındaki gelişmelerin gelişmekte olan petrol ihracatçısı ülkelerin reel döviz kuru üzerinde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Petrol Fiyatları, Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı, Panel Eşbütünleşme, Panel Nedensellik

The impact of oil price on the exchange rates: A panel analysis for Selected Oil Exporter Countries

Abstract

Changes in oil prices can affect macroeconomic variables of both oil exporters and oil importing countries. While the rise in oil prices is Good news for Oil-exporting countries, it is bad news for oil-importing countries. The study selected 10 countries from oil-exporting developing countries. The impact of Brent crude oil prices on the exchange rate using the monthly data of these countries 2003-2017 is investigated using the panel Co-Integration test of the Westerlund (2007). Empirical findings that improvements in oil prices affect the real exchange rate of oil-exporting developing countries.

Keywords

Oil Prices, Cross-Section Dependence, Panel Co-Integration, Panel Causality Test

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