Structural Change and Growth Prospects in the Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Year 2020, , 1 - 19, 30.06.2020

İsmail Tuncer , Maya Moalla Yaprak

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.681451

Cited By: 1

Abstract

The growth and development literature emphasize two sources of labor productivity growth. First, productivity improvements triggered by physical and human capital accumulation and technological change and second, productivity improvements arising from movements of resources towards high productivity industries, that is structural change. The effect of structural change may be productivity enhancing or may bring a drag on aggregate productivity. Empirical studies highlight growth enhancing structural change for newly industrialized Asian countries while indicates weak or growth reducing structural change for some Latin American and African countries. Moreover, these studies also highlight the importance of movements of resources within the manufacturing sub industries. The process of structural change and economic development of developed countries is well documented but studies about less developed or developing countries is very weak. In this respect this study aims to examine whether the Turkish economy fits into this picture of growth-enhancing or reducing structural change? The conventional shift-share analysis is used in order to analyze the effect of structural change on the productivity of the manufacturing industry and the whole Turkish economy for the period of (2003-2017). The results suggest that on average, the within growth effect dominates labor productivity improvements whereas between growth and covariance effects account for very small parts of productivity growth for all the periods.

Keywords

Growth, structural changes, productivity, Turkey, shift-share analysis

References

• Acemoğlu, Daron and Üçer, Murat. (2015). The Ups and Downs of Turkish Growth, 2002-2015: Political Dynamics, the European Union and the Institutional Slide, NBER Working Paper No. 21608, October 2015.
• Acemoğlu, Daron, Guerrieri, Veronica. (2006). Capital deepening and non-balanced economic growth. Journal of Political Economy 116, P: 467-498. DOI: /10.3386/w12475.
• Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco, Van Long, Ngo, Poschke, Markus. (2017). Capital-Labor Substitution, Structural Change, and Growth. Journal of Theoretical Economics 12 / 3. P:3-6. Manuscript. McGill University, Montreal. DOI: /10.3982/te2106. Atiyas, I. &Bakis, O. (2015). Structural Change and Industrial Policy in Turkey, Journal of Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 51/6. P: 4-6.DOI:/10.1080/1540496x.2015.1080523
• Balkır, Canan (1993). Turkey and the European Community: Foreign Trade and Direct Foreign Investment in the 1980s.InC. Balkır and A. M. Williams (Eds.), Turkey and Europe(p. 100-139). Pinter Publishers Ltd. London, U.K.
• Herrendorf, Berthold, Herrington, Christopher, Valentinyi, Ákos. ( 2015). Sectoral Technology and Structural Transformation. Journal of American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7/ 4. P: 858-860.Manuscript. Arizona State University.DOI: /10.1257/mac.20130041. Lin, (2012). New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy. Book Chapter published in New Structural Economics. P:165-166. Washington, DC: World Bank.DOI: /10.1596/9780821389553_ch01 McMillan, M., and Rodrik, D., (2011). Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth. P:2-12.NBER Working Paper No. 17143.DOI:/10.3386/w17143
• Rodrik D, McMillan M, and Sepulveda C. (2017). Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies. Washington, DC. International Food Policy Research Institute. P:81-100.DOI:/10.3386/w23378 Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (2001). Natural resources and economic development: The curse of natural resources.P: 827-833. European Economic Review.DOI: /10.1016/s0014-2921(01)00125-8 Syrquin, M. (2010). Kuznets and Pasinetti on the study of structural transformation: Never the Twain shall meet?Journal of Structural Change and Economic Dynamics21(4), pages 248-257, DOI: /10.1016/j.strueco.2010.08.002
• Tuncer, İsmail &Altiok, Metin (2011), Türkiye İmalat Sanayinde Yapısal Değişim ve Üretkenlik: 1980 - 2008 Dönemi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi , p:65-66. https://earsiv.anadolu.edu.tr/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11421/106/2013-02-05%5b1%5d.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
• Turkish Statistical Institute. 2019, From: www.turkstat.gov.tr
• UNIDO, (2013). Industrial Development Report 2013. Sustaining employment growth: the role of manufacturing and structural change. P:15-34.
• UNIDO, Vienna.https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/2013-12/UNIDO_IDR_2013_main_report_0.pdf