Gelişmiş Ekonomilerde Stag-Deflasyon ve Geleneksel Olmayan Para Politikaları

Year 2020, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 57 - 86, 30.06.2020

Tolga Daglaroglu

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.666964

Abstract

Günümüzde piyasa merkezli finansal sistemin varlığı, bankacılık ve sermaye piyasalarındaki gelişmelerin birbirinden ayrıştırılamamasına neden olmaktadır. Bu durum finansal dalgalanmaların (konjonktürün) merkezinde finansal aracıların yer almasına neden olmuştur. Kaldıraçlı işlemler ekonomik konjonktür ile örtüşen bir yapı sergilemekte ve finansal döngünün yardımı ile artmaktadır. Finansal aracılar, kaldıraç kullanarak ekonominin canlanma dönemlerinde bilançolarını büyütmelerine yardımcı olmakta ve ekonominin daralma dönemlerinde ise tam tersine küçültmektedir. Bu davranış biçimi, konjonktürel dalgalanmaların zararlı etkilerini arttıran bir unsur olmaktadır. Global Finansal Kriz’de ile birlikte finansal kurumlar kaldıraçlı pozisyonları hızlı bir şekilde azaltma çabası piyasalarda fonlama likiditesinin ortaya çıkmasına neden olmuştur
Fonlama likiditesinin ortaya çıkması ve ortaya çıkan durgunluk ile beraber bankaların kredi portföylerini yeniden gözden geçirmelerine neden olmuş ve aynı zamanda risklerini azaltma çabası, ile de kredilerde bir azalış görülmüştür. Durgunluk endişeleri nedeniyle talepte meydana gelen azalış deflasyona yol açmıştır. Bu durum Fisher-tipi borç deflasyonuna neden olmuştur. Yaşanan bu durum stag-deflasyona yol açmıştır. Bu durumda gelişmiş ülke merkez bankaları faiz oranlarını hızlı bir sıfır düzeyine hatta altına düşürmüş ve bu durum merkez bankalarının likidite tuzağına yakalanmalarına yol açmıştır. Bu durumda merkez bankaları geleneksel olmayan para politikası araçları ile ekonomiye müdahale etmişlerdir.

Keywords

Global Finansal Kriz, Kaldıraçlı İşlemler, Stag-Deflasyon ve Geleneksel Olmayan Para Politikası

Stag-Deflation and Unconvential Monetary Policies in Advanced Economies

Abstract

Today, the existence of the market-based financial system causes the developments in the banking and capital markets to be separated from each other. This situation caused financial intermediaries to be at the center of financial fluctuations. Leveraged transactions display a structure that coincides with the economic conjuncture and increases with the help of the financial cycle. Financial intermediaries use the leverage to help them grow their balance sheets during the recovery periods of the economy and, on the contrary, to shrink the economy. This behavior is an element that increases the harmful effects of cyclical fluctuations. In the Global Financial Crisis, financial institutions' efforts to rapidly reduce leveraged positions led to the emergence of funding liquidity in the markets.
Along with the emergence of funding liquidity and the stagnation that emerged, it caused banks to review their credit portfolios and at the same time, a decrease in loans was observed with the effort to reduce their risks. The decrease in demand caused by the worries of recession led to deflation. This situation led to Fisher-type debt deflation. This situation led to stag-deflation. In this case, the central banks of developed countries lowered their interest rates to a level of zero or even below, and this situation caused the central banks to be caught in the liquidity trap. In this case, the central banks intervened in the economy with unconvential monetary policy instruments.

Keywords

Global Financial Crisis, Leverage, Stag-Deflation and Unconventioal Monetary Policy

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