An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Turkey

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 79 - 89, 31.12.2021

Mortaza Ojaghlou , Rozita Satvati

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1007869

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the short and long run dynamic relationship between inflation (consumer price index) and the price of gold in Turkey by using monthly data over the period of 2008m10-2021m04. The finding shows there is no long run and cointegration between consumer price index and the price of gold in Turkey. However, the results demonstrate that CPI does Granger cause of gold but gold dose not Granger cause of CPI. Those results are also confirmed by results of short-run of S-model and the long-run properties of the accumulated impulse responses of structural VAR (SVAR) model that there is not long run interaction between gold and inflation.

Keywords

Gold Prices, Inflation, Cointegration, Hedge.

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