Dış Borç Yatırımlar İçin Önemli mi? Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 399 - 423, 31.12.2022

Abdullah Göv , Ahmet Köstekçi

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1202076

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu makale, 1980-2021 dönemi için Türkiye’de dış borç ve yatırım arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Yıllık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada dış borç, iç tasarruflar, ekonomik büyüme, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ile toplam yatırımlar arasındaki ilişki Sıradan En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testiyle incelenmiştir. Sıradan En Küçük Kareler tahmin sonuçları çerçevesinde dış borç ve yatırım arasındaki ilişkinin istatistiksel olarak anlamsız olduğu, ancak ekonomik büyüme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım değişkenlerinin toplam yatırımları pozitif yönde etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik test sonuçlarına göre ise dış borç ve yatırım değişkenleri arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olmadığı sonuca varılmıştır. Bulgularımız, incelenen dönem için dış borçların yatırımları etkilemediğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle ampirik sonuçlara dayalı olarak çalışmamız, dış borçların verimli yatırımlarda kullanılması ve yatırımları desteklemesi noktasında politika yapıcılarına çeşitli adımlar atmasını önermektedir.

Keywords

En Küçük Kareler, Fourier Toda- Yamamoto Nedensellik, Türkiye, Toplam Dış Borç, Toplam Yatırımlar, Total External Debt, Total Investment, Least Squares, Fourier Toda- Yamamoto Causality, Turkey

Supporting Institution

Yok

Project Number

Yok

Does External Debt Matter for Investment? Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between external debt and investment in Turkey for the period 1980-2021. In the study using annual data, the relationship between external debt, domestic savings, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and total investments was examined by the Ordinary Least Squares Method and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Within the framework of the Ordinary Least Squares estimation results, it was concluded that the relationship between external debt and investment was statistically insignificant, but economic growth and foreign direct investment variables positively affected total investments. According to the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, it was concluded that there is no causal relationship between the external debt and investment variables. Our findings show that external debt does not affect investments for the period under study. Therefore, based on empirical results, our study suggests that policymakers take various steps to use external debt in productive investments and to support investments.

Keywords

Total External Debt, Total Investment, Least Squares, Fourier Toda- Yamamoto Causality, Turkey

Project Number

Yok

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