Dış Borç Yatırımlar İçin Önemli mi? Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 399 - 423, 31.12.2022

Abdullah Göv Ahmet Köstekçi

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1202076

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu makale, 1980-2021 dönemi için Türkiye’de dış borç ve yatırım arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Yıllık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışmada dış borç, iç tasarruflar, ekonomik büyüme, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ile toplam yatırımlar arasındaki ilişki Sıradan En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testiyle incelenmiştir. Sıradan En Küçük Kareler tahmin sonuçları çerçevesinde dış borç ve yatırım arasındaki ilişkinin istatistiksel olarak anlamsız olduğu, ancak ekonomik büyüme ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım değişkenlerinin toplam yatırımları pozitif yönde etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Fourier Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik test sonuçlarına göre ise dış borç ve yatırım değişkenleri arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olmadığı sonuca varılmıştır. Bulgularımız, incelenen dönem için dış borçların yatırımları etkilemediğini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle ampirik sonuçlara dayalı olarak çalışmamız, dış borçların verimli yatırımlarda kullanılması ve yatırımları desteklemesi noktasında politika yapıcılarına çeşitli adımlar atmasını önermektedir.

Keywords

En Küçük Kareler, Fourier Toda- Yamamoto Nedensellik, Türkiye, Toplam Dış Borç, Toplam Yatırımlar, Total External Debt, Total Investment, Least Squares, Fourier Toda- Yamamoto Causality, Turkey

Supporting Institution

Yok

Project Number

Yok

Does External Debt Matter for Investment? Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between external debt and investment in Turkey for the period 1980-2021. In the study using annual data, the relationship between external debt, domestic savings, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and total investments was examined by the Ordinary Least Squares Method and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Within the framework of the Ordinary Least Squares estimation results, it was concluded that the relationship between external debt and investment was statistically insignificant, but economic growth and foreign direct investment variables positively affected total investments. According to the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, it was concluded that there is no causal relationship between the external debt and investment variables. Our findings show that external debt does not affect investments for the period under study. Therefore, based on empirical results, our study suggests that policymakers take various steps to use external debt in productive investments and to support investments.

Keywords

Total External Debt, Total Investment, Least Squares, Fourier Toda- Yamamoto Causality, Turkey

Project Number

Yok

References

• Abdullahi, M.M., Abu Bakar, N.A.B., & Hassan, S.B. (2016). Debt overhang versus crowding out effects: Understanding the impact of external debts on capital formation in theory. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(1), 271-278.
• Adamu, I. M. (2016). Public investment in Nigeria. Does external debt matter?. Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 2(4), 120–138.
• Afonso, A., & Jalles, J. T. (2013). Growth and productivity: The role of government debt. International Review of Economics and Finance, 25, 384–407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2012.07.004
• Bakare, A.S. (2011). A theoretical analysis of capital formation and growth in Nigeria. Far East Journal of Psychology and Business, 3(1), 12-24.
• Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27, 381–409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x
• Borensztein, E. (1989). Debt overhang, credit rationing and investment. IMF Working Paper No. 89/74.
• Casares, E.R. (2015). A relationship between external public debt and economic growth. Estudios Económicos, 30(2), 219-243.
• Chaudhry, I. S., Malik, S., & Ramzan, M. (2009). Impact of foreign debt on savings and investment in Pakistan. Journal of Quality and Technology Management, 5(11), 101-115.
• Christopoulos, D. K., & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.003
• Clements, B., Bhattacharya, R., & Nguye, T. Q. (2003). External debt, public investment, and growth in low-income countries. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/03/249.
• Deshpande, A. (1997). The debt overhang and the disincentive to invest. Journal of Development Economics, 52(1), 169-187.
• Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
• Eğilmez, M. (2020). Ekonomik büyümenin işleyiş mekanizması (Kendime Yazılar), 10 Ekim, 2022 https://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2020/12/ekonomik-buyumenin-isleyis-mekanizmas.html adresinden alınmıştır.
• Erdem, M. (2021). Devlet borçları. Ekin Yayınevi.
• Eker, A., Asuman, A., & Mustafa, S. (2007). Maliye politikası (teori, ilkeler ve yöntem). Birleşik Matbaacılık.
• Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible fourier form and dickey–fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letter, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
• Enders, W., & Jones, P. (2015). Grain prices, oil prices, and multiple smooth breaks in a VAR. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamic & Econometrics. 20(4), 399-419, http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/snde-2014-0101
• Feldstein, M., & Horioka, C. (1980). Domestic saving and international capital flows, The Economic Journal, 90, 314-329.
• Ghali, K. H. (1998). Public investment and private capital formation in a vector error-correction model of growth. Applied Economics, 30(6), 837-844. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368498325543
• Ghura, D. (1997). Private investment and endogenous growth: Evidence from Cameroon. IMF Working Paper, No. 97/165.
• Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
• Hakimi A., Boussaada R., & Karmani M. (2019). External debt, investment, and economic growth, Journal of Economic Integration, 34(4), 725-745.
• Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı. (2022). Hazine istatistik yıllığı, kamu borç yönetim verileri. Eylül 10, 2022, https://www.hmb.gov.tr/ekonomik-gostergeler, adresinden alınmıştır.
• Hulten, C. R., & Peterson, G. E. (1984). The public capital stock: Needs, trends, a performance. The American Economic Review, 74(2), 166-173.
• Hunt, S.D. (2007). Economic growth: Should policy focus on investment or dynamic competition?. European Business Review, 19(4), 279-291.
• Işık, A., & Meriç, M. (2009). AB’de kamu yatırımlarının finansmanında “altın kural”. Ege Akademik Bakış, 9(4), 1591-1603.
• Javed, Z. H., & Sahinho, A. (2005). External debt: Some experience from Turkish economy. Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(2), 363-367.
• Karagöl, E. (2002). The causality analysis of external debt service and GNP: The case of Turkey. Central Bank Review, 2(1), 39-64.
• Karayılmazlar, E., & Özgün, M. (2019), Tasarruflar ile dış borçlar arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik analizi: Türkiye örneği. Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 37(3), 489-515.
• Kesik, A. (2003, 12-16 Mayıs). Bütçe yönetimi ile borç yönetiminin ayrılmasının konsolide bütçeye yansımaları [Konferans Bildirisi]. XVIII Türkiye Maliye Sempozyumu, Kıbrıs.
• Kıvanç, T. (1969). Proje değerlendirmesi ve dış finansman için projelerin teklifi. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Maliye Enstitüsü Yayınları.
• Köstekçi, A. & Yıldız, F. (2019). Kamu borç yönetimi Türkiye ve OECD ülke uygulamaları. Ekin Yayınevi.
• Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Appalachian State University Department of Economics Working Papers.
• Lucas, R. E.J. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
• Lumsdaine, R.L., & Papell, D.H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit root hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 212-218.
• McKinnon, R. (1964). Foreign exchange constraints in economic development and efficient aid allocation. The Economic Journal, 74(294), 388-409. https://doi.org/10.2307/2228486
• Mileva, E. (2008). The impact of capital flows on domestic investment in transition Economies. ECB Research Working Paper No. 871.
• Nath, S. (2020). An analysis of the relationship among economic growth, external debt and exports in India (1970-2018). Economy, 7(1), 59-68.
• Nazlioglu, S., Gormus, N. A., & Soytas, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168-175.
• Ohiomu, S. (2020). External debt and economic growth nexus: empirical evidence from Nigeria. The American Economist, 65(2), 330-343.
• Panizza, U. (2008). Domestic and external public debt in developing countries. UNCTAD Discussion Papers Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., & Ricci, L. (2004). What are the channels through which external debt affects growth?. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/04/15.
• Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401.
• Picarelli, M.O., Vanlaer, W., & Marneffe, W. (2019). Does public debt produce a crowding out effect for public investment in the EU?. Working Paper Series, No. 36.
• Ramírez, R., & Erquizio, A. (2012). Análisis del ciclo político electoral a partir de variables de gasto público por entidad federativa en México, 1993-2009. Paradigma Economico, 4, 5-27.
• Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth author. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037. Sachs, J. (2002). Resolving the debt crisis of low income countries. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 2002 (1), 257- 286.
• Salamanca, A., & Monroy, V. (2009). Deuda externa pública e inversión Colombia 1994-2007: Evidencia de un modelo no-lineal TAR. Cuadernos de Economía, 28(51), 205-243.
• Sanchez-Juarez, I., & Garcia-Almada, R. (2016). Public debt, public investment and economic growth in Mexico. International Journal of Financial Studies, 4(6), 1-14.
• Silva, J. (2020). Impact of public and private sector external debt on economic growth: The case of Portugal. Eurasian Economic Review, 10, 607-634. 10.1007/s40822-020-00153-2
• Sudha, B. (2013). Foreign direct investment. International Journal of Scientific Research, 2(4), 175-177.
• Toda, H.Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics. 66(1-2), 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
• Ugochukwu, U.S., & Chinyere, U.P. (2013). The impact of capital formation on the growth of Nigerian economy. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting Research, 4(9), 36-42.
• World Bank, (2022), World Development Indicators, Eylül 10, 2022, https://data.worldbank.org/, adresinden alınmıştır.
• Yanıkkaya, H. & Turan, T. (2018). Does external debt matter for investment: Evidence from GMM, International Conference On Eurasian Economies, 81-85.
• Yılancı, V., Özgur, Ö., & Gorus, M. S. (2019). The asymmetric effects of foreign direct investment on clean energy consumption in BRICS countries: A recently introduced hidden cointegration test. Journal of Cleaner Production, 237, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117786
• Yıldız, F. & Sağdıç, E. N. (2021). Dış borç ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: kamu ve özel sektör dış borçları açısından BRICS-T ülkeleri analizi. Alanya Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 5(2), 839-863.
• Zhang, B., Dawood, M. & Al-Asfour, A. (2020). External debt and economic growth: A dynamic panel study of Granger causality in developing countries. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(11), 607-617.
• Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.