Effects of Macroeconomic Factors and World Uncertainty Index on Current Account Balance in Turkey: A Time Series Analysis for after 1980

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 257 - 286, 28.02.2025

Ömer Tanju Durusoy

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1514568

Abstract

In studies conducted after the 2008 Crisis, there has been an increased interest in measuring and examining economic uncertainty. These studies, like many previous ones, agree that economic uncertainty is a significant factor in explaining business cycles. Considering the impact of economic uncertainty on business cycles, this study evaluates the extent to which economic uncertainty can be used as an indicator to explain the current account balance. In this context, time series analysis is applied for the periods from the second quarter of 1984 to the third quarter of 2023. The variables used in this study include Turkey's Current Account Balance, GDP Growth Rate, Real Exchange Rates, and the World Uncertainty Index for Turkey. Impulse-response analysis is employed to obtain information about the direction and magnitude of the dynamic relationship between these variables. ADF unit root tests are performed in multivariate time series analysis, and the Akaike information criterion is used to determine the lag length in the VAR model applied. As a result, the determining effect of changes in the GDP growth rate and Real Exchange Rate, which are the main determining variables on Turkey's Current Account Balance, is clearly observed in the examined period. However, the impact of the World Uncertainty Index for Turkey on the Current Account Balance could not be determined.
As a result, the determining effect of changes in the GDP growth rate and Real Exchange Rate, which are the main determining variables on Turkey's Current Account Balance, is clearly seen in the period we examine. However, the impact power of the World Uncertainty Index for Türkiye on the Current Account Balance could not be determined.

Keywords

World Uncertainty Index, Current Acoount, Turkish Economy, VAR Analysis

Ethical Statement

This study, which does not require ethics committee approval and/or legal/special permission, complies with research and publication ethics.

Türkiye'de Makroekonomik Faktörler ve Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksinin Cari Hesap Dengesine Etkileri: 1980 Sonrası için Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi

Abstract

2008 Krizi sonrasında yapılan çalışmalarda, ekonomik belirsizliği ölçme ve inceleme konusundaki ilginin arttığı gözlemlenmektedir. Bu çalışmaların çoğu, önceki birçok çalışmada olduğu gibi, ekonomik belirsizliğin konjonktürel dalgalanmaları açıklayan önemli bir faktör olduğu konusunda hemfikirdir. Ekonomik belirsizliğin konjonktür üzerindeki etkisini göz önünde bulundurarak, bu çalışma, ekonomik belirsizliğin cari hesap dengesini açıklayan bir gösterge olarak ne ölçüde kullanılabileceğini değerlendirmektedir. Bu bağlamda, 1984'ün ikinci çeyreğinden 2023'ün üçüncü çeyreğine kadar olan dönem için zaman serisi analizi uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada kullanılan değişkenler arasında Türkiye'nin Cari Hesap Dengesi, GSYH Büyüme Oranı, Reel Döviz Kurları ve Türkiye için Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi yer almaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ilişkinin yönü ve büyüklüğü hakkında bilgi edinmek için itki-tepki analizi kullanılmıştır. Çok değişkenli zaman serisi analizinde ADF birim kök testleri yapılmış ve uygulanan VAR modelinde gecikme uzunluğunu belirlemek için Akaike bilgi kriteri kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye'nin Cari Hesap Dengesi üzerinde ana belirleyici değişkenler olan GSYH büyüme oranı ve Reel Döviz Kuru değişikliklerinin belirleyici etkisi incelenen dönemde açıkça gözlemlenmiştir. Ancak, Türkiye için Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi'nin Cari Hesap Dengesi üzerindeki etkisi belirlenememiştir.
Sonuç olarak incelediğimiz dönem itibariyle Türkiye’nin Cari Hesap Dengesi üzerinde temel belirleyici değişkenler olan GDP büyüme oranı ve Reel Döviz Kur’undaki değişmelerin belirleyici etkisi açıkça görülmektedir. Ancak Cari Hesap Dengesi üzerinde Türkiye için Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksinin etkileme gücü tespit edilememiştir.

Keywords

Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi, Cari Hesap, Türkiye Ekonomisi, VAR Analizi

Ethical Statement

Etik komite onayı ve/veya yasal/özel izin gerektirmeyen bu çalışma, araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygundur.

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