Validity of the Phillips Curve in Türkiye: MS-VAR Model Approach

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 363 - 394, 28.02.2025

Burhan Durgun

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1610392

Abstract

In the context of economic analysis, the presence of high unemployment and inflation rates signifies an unstable economy. Consequently, it is imperative to ascertain the existence of a relationship between these phenomena and to determine the nature of the relationship, if any. The Phillips hypothesis, which posits a trade-off between unemployment and inflation, has been adopted and implemented by policymakers. However, there is a lack of consensus within the academic community regarding the validity of this hypothesis. This study utilizes the Markov regime-switching model to examine the dynamic relationship between unemployment and inflation in Türkiye. The analysis determines a two-regime model as being suitable for the data structure, with these regimes designated as low instability and high instability periods. The findings of the MS-VAR model reveal a positive and weak relationship between inflation and unemployment in the low instability period, while a strong and negative relationship is observed in the high instability period. The non-linear causality test indicates a unidirectional causality relationship from unemployment to inflation during periods of high instability. The regime-specific causality analysis suggests a unidirectional causality relationship from unemployment to inflation during periods of high instability, thereby validating the Phillips curve in such economic periods.

Keywords

Unemployment, Inflation, Phillips Curve, MS-VAR Model

Ethical Statement

This study, which does not require ethics committee approval and/or legal/special permission, complies with research and publication ethics.

Türkiye’de Phillips Eğrisinin Geçerliliği: MS-VAR Modeli Yaklaşımı

Abstract

İşsizlik ve enflasyon oranlarından birinin veya ikisinin yüksek olması ekonominin istikrarsız olduğunu göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla bu olguların kontrol altına alınabilmesi için aralarında bir ilişki olup olmadığı ve varsa ilişkinin şeklinin anlaşılması önem arz etmektedir. İşsizlikle enflasyon arasında bir değiş-tokuş olduğunu ileri süren Phillips hipotezi politika yapıcılar tarafından benimsenip uygulama alanı bulmuştur. Ancak literatürdeki çalışmalarda bu hipotezin geçerliliği konusunda bir fikir birliği bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için işsizlik ile enflasyon arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler Markov rejim değişim modeli kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. İki rejimli modelin veri yapısına uygun olduğu belirlenmiş ve bu rejimler düşük istikrarsızlık ve yüksek istikrarsızlık dönemleri olarak adlandırılmıştır. MS-VAR modeli sonuçlarına göre düşük istikrarsızlık döneminde enflasyonla işsizlik arasında pozitif ve zayıf bir ilişki bulunmaktayken yüksek istikrarsızlık döneminde güçlü ve negatif bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Doğrusal olmayan nedensellik testi işsizlikten enflasyona doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermiştir. Rejimlere bağlı nedensellik analizinde ise yüksek istikrarsızlık dönemlerinde işsizlikten enflasyona doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar ekonomide yüksek istikrarsızlık dönemlerinde Phillips eğrisinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

İşsizlik, Enflasyon, Phillips Eğrisi, MS-VAR Modeli

Ethical Statement

Etik komite onayı ve/veya yasal/özel izin gerektirmeyen bu çalışma, araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygundur.

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