Loans, Inflation, and Economic Growth in Türkiye and the European Union: A Comparative Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamics

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 835 - 861, 30.06.2025

Atilla Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1642704

Abstract

In recent years, policies implemented to ensure economic stability have undergone significant changes in response to global and regional developments. In particular, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic uncertainties caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have led to the widespread adoption of expansionary monetary policies. Accordingly, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) tried to maintain economic stability by providing liquidity to the markets, but these policies, combined with increases in energy and commodity prices, led to a significant rise in inflation rates in Europe and Turkey. This study aims to analyze the impact of bank lending to the private sector and inflation on economic growth in Turkey and the European Union over the period 2001-2023 using the ARDL bounds test method. Adopting a comparative approach, GDP per capita employment, net exports and foreign direct investment are included in the model as control variables in order to evaluate the effects of financial intermediation and price stability on growth under different economic conditions more comprehensively. The findings show that credit volume, inflation and GDP per capita employment have a positive effect on economic growth in Turkey, whereas net exports have a negative effect on growth and FDI has no statistically significant effect. In the analysis for the European Union economy, it is found that GDP per capita employment and foreign direct investments contribute positively to economic growth, whereas credit volume and net exports affect growth negatively. Moreover, inflation has no statistically significant effect on economic growth in the European Union.

Keywords

Economic Growth , Inflation , Credit , ARDL Boundray Test

Türkiye ve Avrupa Birliği'nde Banka Kredileri, Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Makroekonomik Dinamiklerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Abstract

Son yıllarda ekonomik istikrarı sağlamak amacıyla uygulanan politikalar, küresel ve bölgesel gelişmelere bağlı olarak önemli değişimler geçirmiştir. Özellikle COVID-19 pandemisinin etkileri ve devam eden Rusya-Ukrayna savaşının yol açtığı ekonomik belirsizlikler, genişleyici para politikalarının yaygınlaşmasına neden olmuştur. Bu doğrultuda, Avrupa Merkez Bankası (ECB) ve Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB), piyasalara likidite sağlayarak ekonomik istikrarı korumaya çalışmış, ancak bu politikalar enerji ve emtia fiyatlarındaki artışlarla birleşerek Avrupa ve Türkiye’de enflasyon oranlarının önemli ölçüde yükselmesine yol açmıştır. Bu çalışma, 2001-2023 döneminde Türkiye ve Avrupa Birliği’nde özel sektöre verilen banka kredileri ile enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini ARDL sınır testi yöntemiyle incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Karşılaştırmalı bir yaklaşım benimsenerek, finansal aracılığın ve fiyat istikrarının farklı ekonomik koşullarda büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini daha kapsamlı değerlendirebilmek adına modele kişi başına düşen GSYİH istihdamı, net ihracat ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar kontrol değişkenleri olarak dahil edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de kredi hacmi, enflasyon ve kişi başına GSYİH istihdamının ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilediğini; buna karşın net ihracatın büyümeyi olumsuz yönde etkilediğini ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığını göstermektedir. Avrupa Birliği ekonomisi için yapılan analizde ise kişi başına GSYİH istihdamı ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ekonomik büyümeye pozitif katkı sağladığı, buna karşılık kredi hacmi ve net ihracatın büyümeyi olumsuz yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, Avrupa Birliği’nde enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin bulunmadığı belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme , Enflasyon , Kredi , ARDL Sınır Testi

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