The Impact of Monetary Policies in Türkiye on Housing Prices

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 3, 1381 - 1412, 29.10.2025

Oğuz Tümtürk

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1673356

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the CBRT monetary policies on housing prices. The fact that the direction of the theoretical relationship between monetary policy and housing prices is not certain requires country-specific empirical studies to determine the direction of the relevant relationship. Monetary policy and housing price nexus is analyzed with the structural VAR model, in line with the common procedure in the monetary policy literature. According to the results, that the demand channel of monetary policy cannot dominate the monetary transmission mechanism reveals price puzzles and an expansionary monetary policy decreases housing prices. Moreover, while the CBRT monetary policies produce a well-known exchange rate puzzle in the exchange rate literature, the existence of the monetary transmission mechanism on the real sector has not been empirically proven.

Keywords

Monetary Policy , Housing Prices , Price Puzzle , Structural VAR

Türkiye’de Uygulanan Para Politikalarının Konut Fiyatları Üzerine Etkisi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, TCMB para politikalarının konut fiyatları üzerinde yaratacağı etki analiz edilmektedir. Para politikası ile konut fiyatları arasındaki teorik ilişkinin yönünün kesin olmaması, ilgili ilişkinin yönünün belirlenebilmesi için ülkeler özelinde yapılan ampirik çalışmaları zorunlu kılmaktadır. Çalışmada, para politikası ve konut fiyatları ilişkisi para politikası literatüründeki genel eğilime paralel olarak yapısal VAR modeli ile analiz edilmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, para politikasının talep kanalının parasal aktarım mekanizmasını domine edememesi fiyat bulmacaları oluşturmakta ve genişletici para politikası konut fiyatlarını düşürmektedir. Ayrıca, TCMB para politikaları döviz kuru literatüründe oldukça bilinen döviz kuru bulmacası yaratırken, parasal aktarım mekanizmasının reel sektör üzerindeki varlığı ise ampirik olarak kanıtlanamamıştır.

Keywords

Para Politikası , Konut Fiyatları , Fiyat Bulmacası , Yapısal VAR

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