Türkı̇ye'de Turı̇zm Gelı̇rlerı̇, Ekonomı̇k Büyüme ve Dövı̇z Kuru Arasındakı̇ İlı̇şkı̇: Covid-19'un Gölgesı̇nde Ekonomı̇k Büyümeye Dayalı Turı̇zm Gelı̇rlerı̇

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 3, 1441 - 1467

Barış Can Kızıl , Dilek Çetin

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1702310

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye'de turizm gelirleri, ekonomik büyüme ve döviz kuru arasındaki eşbütünleşik ilişkiyi ampirik olarak test etmektir. Bu çalışmanın diğer çalışmalardan farkı Covid-19 dönemini analiz dönemine dahil ederek şok etkisini dikkate almasıdır. Çalışmamızda Peseran, Shin, Smith tarafından geliştirilen ARDL modeli 2003Q1-2024Q3 dönemi için zaman serisi verileri kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Bağımlı değişken turizm gelirleri, bağımsız değişkenler ise gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve reel döviz kurudur. Ayrıca Covid-19 etkisini göstermek için bir kukla değişken kullanılmıştır. Uzun dönem katsayıları pozitif ve anlamlıdır. Covid-19 kukla değişkeninin uzun dönem katsayısı beklendiği gibi negatif ve anlamlıdır. Buna göre Covid-19 döneminde ekonomik büyüme ve döviz kurundaki %1'lik artış turizm gelirlerini sırasıyla %1,49 ve %1,25 oranında artırırken, Covid-19 kaynaklı şoklar turizm gelirlerini %1,41 oranında azaltmıştır. Buna göre, büyüme ve döviz kuru şoklarının %0,23'ü aynı dönem içerisinde bertaraf edilebilmektedir. Son olarak, ampirik bulgular ekonomik büyümeye dayalı turizm hipotezinin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Turizm Geliri , Ekonomik Büyüme , Covid-19 , Şoklar , ARDL

Ethical Statement

Çalışmanın tüm süreçlerinin araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygun olduğunu, etik kurallara ve bilimsel atıf gösterme ilkelerine uyduğumu beyan ederim.

Supporting Institution

Makale çalışması kapsamında herhangi bir kurum tarafından destek alınmamıştır.

Project Number

1

Thanks

Çalışmam boyunca değerli katkılarını benden esirgemeyen sayın hocama teşekkürlerimi bir borç bilirim.

Relationship between Tourism Incomes, Economic Growth, and Exchange Rate in Türkiye: Economic Growth Based Tourism Incomes in the Shadow of Covid-19

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to empirically test the cointegrated relationship between tourism revenues, economic growth and exchange rate in Türkiye. The difference of this study from other studies is that it takes into account the shock effect by including the Covid-19 period in the analysis period. In our study, the ARDL model developed by Peseran, Shin, Smith is estimated using time series data for the period 2003Q1-2024Q3. The dependent variable is tourism revenues, while the independent variables are Gross Domestic Product and real exchange rate. In addition, a dummy variable is used to show the Covid-19 effect. The long-run coefficients are positive and significant. The long-run coefficient of the Covid-19 dummy variable is negative and significant as expected. Accordingly, a 1% increase in economic growth and exchange rate during the Covid-19 period increased tourism revenues by 1.49% and 1.25%, respectively, while shocks arising from Covid-19 decreased tourism revenues by 1.41%. Accordingly, 0.23% of the shocks to growth and exchange rate can be eliminated within the same period. Finally, the empirical findings suggest that the economic growth-based tourism hypothesis is valid for Turkiye.

Keywords

Tourism Incomes , Economic Growth , Shocks , Covid-19 , ARDL

Ethical Statement

I declare that all processes of this study are in accordance with research and publication ethics, and that I have complied with ethical rules and scientific citation principles.

Supporting Institution

This article was not supported by any institution.

Project Number

1

Thanks

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my esteemed professor for his valuable contributions throughout my work.

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