Evaluation of the Warehouse Location Alternatives for Possible Great Istanbul Earthquake

Abstract

The "Great Istanbul Earthquake" is expected to occur in Istanbul within the next 10 years. Preparations have long been made for the great Istanbul earthquake, which is expected to cause heavy loss of life and property. One of the important parts of earthquake preparedness is the disaster logistics warehouses, where emergency supplies and shelter equipment are stored to be dispatched to earthquake victims. The aim of this study is determining the optimal locations of the warehouses in order to deliver the aid materials to the points of need as soon as possible and to meet the needs in the event of a possible large earthquake in Istanbul. The model was set up in two steps to determine the number of warehouses to be opened with the set covering problem in the first step, and to minimize the weighted distance with p-median in the second step. The established model was solved using The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), and the optimum scenario was decided according to the results and the scenarios were mapped.

Keywords

• Disaster logistics warehouse
• earthquake
• location selection
• p-median
• set covering problem

References

1. AFAD, (2014). Açıklamalı Afet Yönetimi Terimleri Sözlüğü. [Online]. Available: https://aats.afad.gov.tr/
2. AFAD, (2019). Deprem Nedir? [Online]. Available: https://www.afad.gov.tr/deprem-nedir
3. Aydın, H., Ayvaz, B., Küçükaşçı, E.Ş. (2017). Afet Yönetiminde Lojistik Depo Seçimi Problemi: Maltepe İlçesi Örneği. Journal of Yasar University. 12, 1-13.
4. Boonmee C., Arimura M., Asada T. (2017). Facility location optimization model for emergency humanitarian logistics. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 24, 485-498.
5. Görmez, N. (2008). Disaster response and relief facility location for İstanbul. Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
6. İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi (2019). İstanbul Deprem Çalıştayı.
7. İstanbul Büyükşehir Belediyesi, Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü, (2020). İstanbul İli Olası Deprem Kayıp Tahminlerinin Güncellenmesi Projesi.
8. Silahtar, A. (2022). Evaluation of local soil conditions with 1D nonlinear site response analysis of Arifiye (Sakarya District), Turkey. Natural Hazards, 1-25.

9. Tan, O., Tapirdamaz, M. C., & Yörük, A. (2008). The earthquake catalogues for Turkey. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 17(2), 405-418.
10. Utkucu, M., Budakoğlu, E., Yalçin, H., Durmuş, H., GÜLEN, L., & Ercan, I. Ş. I. K. (2014). 23 Ekim 2011 Van (Doğu Anadolu) Depremi'nin (Mw= 7.1) Sismotektonik Özellikleri. Yerbilimleri, 35(2), 141-168.
11. Van der Geer, J., Hanraads, J.A.J., Lupton, R.A. (2010). The art of writing a scientific article. Journal name. 163, 51–59.
12. Yamamoto, Y., Kalafat, D., Pinar, A., Takahashi, N., Coskun, Z., Polat, R., ... & Ozener, H. (2020). Fault geometry beneath the western and Central Marmara Sea, Turkey, based on ocean bottom seismographic observations: Implications for future large earthquakes. Tectonophysics, 791, 228568.