Why Using One-Sided Violence in Civil Wars? A Theoretical Argumentation Attempt on Strategic Logic

Year 2018, Issue: 1, 207 - 240, 20.06.2018

Ayla Akdoğan

Abstract

Most of the research on one-sided violence focused on factors that have an effect on the targeting of civilians, which were selected on account of the clarity of their definitions, characteristics that can be differentiated from the other factors, the ease with which they can be studied, as well as their recognizability. Some of the factors researched will be briefly discussed and the most important ones, which are central to this study, examined in detail. One-sided violence against civilians is not a rare occurrence. Studies have found that actors -most of which are state actors- adopt strategies that target civilians or inflict civilian mass killings in one-fifth to onethird of wars (Arreguín-Toft, 2001, 2005; Valentino et al., 2004; Downes, 2006a, 2008). According to Downes (2008: 1), despite the fruitful literature that has emerged in the last decade to explain the causes of civilian targeting (e.g., Kalyvas, 1999, 2004, 2006; Valentino, 2004; Valentino et al., 2004; Valentino et al., 2006; Mann, 2005; Weinstein, 2007; Downes, 2006a, 2006b, 2008), the effectiveness of civilian victimization for achieving belligerents’ war objectives remains fairly understudied. Much of this new literature on the causes of civilian victimization suggests that, at least in some circumstances, targeting civilians has a positive utility or that leaders often believe it does.

Keywords

One-Sided Violence, Civil War, Strategic Logic, Military Strength, Revenge

Why Using One-Sided Violence in Civil Wars? A Theoretical Argumentation Attempt on Strategic Logic

Abstract

Most
of the research on one-sided violence focused on factors that have an effect on
the targeting of civilians, which were selected on account of the clarity of
their definitions, characteristics that can be differentiated from the other
factors, the ease with which they can be studied, as well as their
recognizability. Some of the factors researched will be briefly discussed and
the most important ones, which are central to this study, examined in detail. One-sided violence against civilians is not a rare occurrence. Studies have found that actors -most of which are state actors- adopt strategies that target civilians or inflict civilian mass killings in one-fifth to onethird of wars (Arreguín-Toft, 2001, 2005; Valentino et al., 2004; Downes, 2006a, 2008). According to Downes (2008: 1), despite the fruitful literature that has emerged in the last decade to explain the causes of civilian targeting (e.g., Kalyvas, 1999, 2004, 2006; Valentino, 2004; Valentino et al., 2004; Valentino et al., 2006; Mann, 2005; Weinstein, 2007; Downes, 2006a, 2006b, 2008), the effectiveness of civilian victimization for achieving belligerents’ war objectives remains fairly understudied. Much of this new literature on the causes of civilian victimization suggests that, at least in some circumstances, targeting civilians has a positive utility or that leaders often believe it does. 

Keywords

One-Sided Violence, Civil War, Strategic Logic, Military Strength

References

• Abrahms, Max (2006), Why Terrorism Does Not Work, International Security, Vol. 31, No. 2, pp. 42-78.
• Adas, Michael (2003), America, The Vietnam War and the World, in America, the Vietnam War, and the World: Comparative and International Perspectives, Andreas W. Daum, Lloyd C. Gardner, and Wilfried Mausbach (edt.), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 27-42.
• Arreguín-Toft, Ivan (2003), The [F]utility of Barbarism: Assessing the Impact of the Systematic Harm of Noncombatants in War”, Paper presented at the Annual Convention of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, August 2003.
• Arreguín-Toft, Ivan (2001), How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict, International Security, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp. 93-128.
• Browning, Christopher R. (1993), Ordinary Men: Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland, New York: Harper Perrenial.
• Bussmann, Margit and Gerald Schneider (2010), Accounting for the Dynamics of One-Sided Violence: Introducing KOSVED, Working Paper, August 2011.
• Buzan, Barry (2002) Who may we bomb? In: Worlds in Collision: Terror and the Future of Global Order, Ken Booth and Tim Dunne (eds.), Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 85-94.
• Chojnacki, Sven (2004), Gewaltakteure und Gewaltmärkte: Wandel der Kriegsformen?, Der Bürger im Staat, Jahrgang 54, Heft 4, Baden-Württemberg: Landeszentrale für politische Bildung, pp. 179-184,
• Crozier, Brian (1960), The Rebels: A Study of Post-war Insurrections, Boston: Beacon Press.
• Dekmejian, Hrair R. (2007), Spectrum of Terror, Publisher Cq Pr.
• DeMeritt, Jacqueline H. R. (2008), A Strategic Logic of Government Killing: Theory and Some Initial Empirics, Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, March 26-29, 2008.
• Downes, Alexander B. (2008), Killing (Civilians) To Win? Some Preliminary Evidence On The Military Effectiveness Of Civilian Victimization in War. Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, March 26-29, 2008.
• Downes, Alexander B. (2007), Restraint or Propellant? Democracy and Civilian Fatalities in Interstate Wars, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 51, No. 6, pp. 872-904.
• Downes, Alexander B. (2006a), Hypothesis on the Effectiveness of Civilian Victimization in War, Paper prepared for the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, March 2006.
• Downes, Alexander B. (2006b), Desperate Times, Desperate Measures: The Causes of Civilian Victimization in War, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 4 (Spring 2006), pp. 152–195.
• Doyle, Michael W. (1997), Ways of war and peace: Realism, Liberalism, and Socialism, New York: Norton.
• Dunne, Paul J.; María del Carmen García-Alonso, Paul Levine, and Ron P. Smith (2006), Managing Asymmetric Conflict, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 183-208.
• Eck, Kristine and Lisa Hultman (2007), One-Sided Violence Against Civilians in War: Insights from New Fatality Data, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 44, No. 2, pp. 233-246.
• Eck, Kristine; Margareta Sollenberg, and Peter Wallensteen (2004), One-Sided Violence and Non-State Conflict, in States in Armed Conflict 2003, Lotta Harbom (eds.), Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden, pp. 133-142.
• Engelhardt, Michael J. (1992), Democracies, Dictatorships and Counterinsurgency: Does Regime Type Really Matter?, Journal of Conflict Studies, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 52-63.
• Fein, Helen (1993), Genocide: A Sociological Perspective, London: Sage.
• Fielding, David and Anja Shortland (2010), ‘An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth’: Political violence and counter-insurgency in Egypt, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 47, No. 4 (July 2010), pp. 433-447.
• Goodwin, Jeff (2006), A Theory of Categorical Terrorism, Social Forces, Vol. 84, No. 4, pp. 2027-2046.
• Harff, Barbara (2003a), No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder Since 1955, American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 1, pp. 57-73.
• Harff, Barbara (2003b), ‘Genocide’, Commissioned by the Human Security Centre, (July 17, 2003).
• Heldt, Birger (2003), Management of Civil Wars and Genocidal Violence: Lessons from Statistical Research, http://www.gpanet.org/content/management-civil-wars-and-genocidal-violence-lessons-statistical-research. (20.03.2018).
• Horowitz, Michael C. and Dan Reiter (2001), When Does Aerial Bombing Work?: Quantitative Empirical Tests, 1917–1999, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 45, No. 2, pp. 147-173.
• http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/206477/fifth-column (20.03.2018)
• Hultman, Lisa (2008), Targeting the Unarmed: Strategic Rebel Violence in Civil War, Dissertation, Report no 82, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden.
• Hultman, Lisa (2007), Battle Losses and Rebel Violence: Raising the Costs for Fighting, Terrorism and Political Violence, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 205-222.
• Hultman, Lisa (2006), Rebel Violence Against Civilians: A Function of Fighting?, Paper prepared for presentation at the Jan Tinbergen Peace Science Conference, Amsterdam, 26-28 June 2006.
• Jacoby, Tim (2008), Understanding Conflict and Violence: Theoretical and Interdisciplinary Approaches, London: Routledge.
• Jayatilleka, Dayan (2001), Sri Lanka’s Separatist Conflict: The Sources of Intractability, Ethnic Studies Report, Vol. XIX, No. 2, July 2001, pp. 207-226.
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. and Matt Kocher (2009), The Dynamics of Violence in Vietnam: An Analysis of the Hamlet Evaluation System (HES), Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 46 No. 3, pp. 335-355.
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. (2006), The Logic of Violence in Civil War, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. (2005), Warfare in Civil Wars. In: Rethinking the Nature of War, Isabelle Duyvesteyn and Jan Angstrom (eds.), Abingdton: Frank Cass, pp. 88-108.
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. and Nicholas Sambanis (2005), Bosnia’s Civil War: Origins and Violence Dynamics. In Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, The World Bank, pp. 191-229.
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. (2004), The Paradox of Terrorism in Civil War, Journal of Ethics, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 97-138.
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. (2001), ‘New’ and ‘Old’ Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction?, World Politics, Vol. 54, No. 1 (October 2001), pp. 99-118.
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. (1999), Wanton and Senseless?: The Logic of Massacres in Algeria, Rationality and Society, Vol. 11, No. 3 (August 1999), pp. 243-285.
• Lohmann, Klaus P. (2004), Zur Entwicklung der modernen Kriegführung. Grundlegende Asymmetrie und eine mögliche Strategie, in: Asymmetrische Kriegführung – ein neues Phänomen der internationalen Politik?, von: Josef Schröfl und Thomas Pankratz (Hrsg.), Baden-Baden: Nomos, pp. 57-68.
• Lyall, Jason and Isaiah Wilson III (2009), Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars, International Organization, Vol. 63, No. 1 (Winter 2009), pp. 67-106.
• Mann, Michael (2005), The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Mason, David (1996), Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, and the Rational Peasant, Public Choice, Vol. 86, No. 1, pp. 63-83.
• Merelits, Claire (2009), Inside Insurgency: Violence, Civilians, and Revolutionary Group Behavior, New York: New York University Press.
• Merom, Gil (2003), How Democracies Lose Small War, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Midlarsky, Manus I. (2005), The Killing Trap: Genocide in the Twentieth Century, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Morrow, James D. (2007), When Do States Follow the Laws of War?, American Political Science Review, Vol. 101, No. 3, pp. 559-572.
• Moyar, Mark (2006), Triumph Forsaken: The Vietnam War 1954-65, New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Murshed, Syed Mansoob (2010), Explaining Civil War: A Rational Choice Approach, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd; First Edition (27 Nov 2009).
• Münkler, Herfried (2004), Die neuen Kriege, Der Bürger im Staat, Jahrgang 54, Heft 4, Baden-Württemberg: Landeszentrale für politische Bildung, pp. 179-184.
• Pape, Robert A. (2005), Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, New York: Random House.
• Pape, Robert A. (2003), The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 3, pp. 343-361.
• Pape, Robert A. (1997), Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work, International Security, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 90-136.
• Pape, Robert A. (1996), Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
• Polk, William R. (2007), Violent Politics: A History of Insurgency, Terrorism and Guerilla War, From the American Revolution to Iraq, New York: Harper Collins.
• Reiter, Dan and Allan C. Stam (2002), Democracies at War, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
• Rummel, Rudolph J. (1997), Death by Government, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.
• Rummel, Rudolph J. (1994), Power, Genocide and Mass Murder, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 1-10.
• Schneider, Gerald; Lilli Banholzer, and Roos Haer (2011a), Cain`s Choice: Causes of One-Sided Violence Against Civilians, in: Causes of War: An Introduction to Theories behind Warfare and Collective Violence, Jakobsen, Tor Georg (Edt.), New York: Nova Science Publishers, pp. 57-82.
• Schneider, Gerald; Margit Bussmann and Constantin Ruhe (2011b), The Dynamics of Mass Killings: Testing Time-Series Models of One-Sided Violence in Bosnia, Paper prepared for presentation at the CSCW workshop, University of Mannheim, Germany, April 27-28, 2011.
• Valentino, Benjamin A.; Paul Huth, and Sarah Croco (2006), Covenants without the Sword: International Law and the Protection of Civilians in Times of War, World Politics, Vol. 58, No. 3, pp. 339-377.
• Valentino, Benjamin A.; Paul Huth, and Dylan Balch-Lindsay (2004), Draining the Sea: Mass Killing and Guerilla Warfare, International Organization, Vol. 58, No. 2 (Spring 2004), pp. 375-407.
• Valentino, Benjamin A. (2004), Final Solutions: Mass Killing and Genocide in the 20th Century, Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
• Verwimp, Philip (2006), Machetes and Firearms: the Organisation of Massacres in Rwanda, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 43, Issue 1, pp. 5-22.
• Weinstein, Jeremy (2007), Inside the Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Wood, Reed M.; Jacob D. Kathman, and Stephen E. Gent (2010), Armed Intervention and Insurgent Violence against Civilians in Intrastate Conflicts, Paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Meeting in New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2010.
• Wood, Reed M. (2010), Rebel Capability and Strategic Violence Against Civilians, Journal of Peace Research, Vol.47, No. 5, pp. 601-614.
• Ziemke, Jen (2008), From Battles to Massacres, Prepared for the 3rd Annual Harvard-Yale-MIT Graduate Student Conference on Order, Conflict and Violence, 2008.
• Ziemke, Jen (2007), From Battles to Massacres: An analysis of changing conflict patterns in Angola: 1961-2002, Prepared for the Comparative Research Colloquium, Madison, WI, October 2007.