Soğuk Savaş Sonrası Orta Doğu’da Demokrasinin Yayılması

Abstract

With the end of the Cold War, the U.S identified the spread of democracy as one of its foreign policy priorities. Advocates of this view have believed that the installation of democratic governments in Afghanistan and Iraq will render these countries as a role model for their authoritarian neighbors. This article empirically tests the assumption that increasing democracy level in one country will democratize its neighbors in the post-Cold War period Middle East. Empirical findings in this article show that the increasing level of democracy in a Middle Eastern country does not help democracy spread to its neighbors. Results also suggest that there are two factors that are most likely to help increase democracy level in a country: being more powerful than one’s neighbors and having an economy that does not rely on abundant natural resources.

Keywords

• Middle East, Democracy, Diffusion of democracy, USA

SOĞUK SAVAŞ SONRASI ORTA DOĞU’DA DEMOKRASİNİN YAYILMASI

Abstract

Soğuk Savaş’ın sona ermesiyle birlikte dünyadaki tek süper güç olarak kalan ABD, demokrasinin yayılmasını dış politika önceliklerinden birisi olarak benimsemişti. Özellikle 11 Eylül 2001 günü New York’ta gerçekleşen terör saldırıları sonrasında daha belirgin hale gelen görüşe göre ABD’nin süper güç olması, sahip oldukları demokrasi gibi “iyi” bir özelliği “geri kalmış” ülkelere götürme sorumluluğu yüklemekteydi. En son 2001 yılında Afganistan’ın ve sonrasında 2003 yılında Irak’ın işgal edilmesi ile bu ülkelerde kurulacak yeni sistemin demokratik olacağı, böylelikle çevresindeki ülkelere örnek olacağı tahmin edilmekteydi. Bu çalışmada Soğuk Savaş sonrasında Orta Doğu’da bir ülkede demokrasi seviyesindeki artışın komşu ülkenin demokrasi seviyesinin artmasına etkisi araştırılmaktadır. Zaman serisi analizi ile regresyon analizi yapılarak 1990-2008 yılları arasındaki dönem incelenmektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar Soğuk Savaş sonrası Orta Doğu ülkelerinde demokrasinin gelişmesi çevre ülkelere yayılmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar Orta Doğu’da bir ülkede demokrasi seviyesinin artma ihtimalini yükselten en önemli iki etkenin o ülkenin komşularından daha güçlü oluşu ve ekonomisinin büyük oranda enerji kaynaklarına bağlı olmayışı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Orta Doğu, Demokrasi, Demokrasinin yayılması, ABD

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