Russia’s Arab Spring Policy

Abstract

One of the regions where Russia‟s interests are constant and historic is the Middle East, which has been being shaken by revolutions and insurgencies since January 2011. Being hesitant between supporting the desire of protestors to overthrow their long-ruling leaders and aligning with the stable authoritarian regimes of the Middle East, Russia has so far failed to adopt a consistent policy. Moreover, by following a low profile policy, Moscow seems indifferent to using the regimes changes as an opportunity to penetrate the region and revive its wading influence in the Middle East. Russia‟s inflexible foreign policy mentality, secondary importance of the Middle East in Russian foreign policy, perception of Arab Spring as a tool of outside powers, and the unrest it could arouse in motherland (as well as near abroad) could account for Moscow‟s reluctance to adopt a proactive role in reorganization of the Middle East.

Keywords

• Russia, Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, Middle East

Rusya’nın Arap Baharı Politikası

Abstract

2011 yılının Ocak ayından bu yana devrimler ve isyanlarla sarsılan Ortadoğu, Rus çıkarlarının süreklilik arz ettiği ve tarihi köklere sahip olduğu bir bölge olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Uzun yıllar kendilerini tek adam rejimi ile yöneten idarecilerini devirmeye çalışan protestocular ile otoriter ama istikrarlı rejimleri desteklemek arasında kalan Rusya'nın, şimdiye kadar tutarlı bir politika izlediğini iddia etmek güçtür. Arap devrimleri esnasında düşük bir dış politika profili izleyen Moskova, rejim değişikliklerini bölgeye nüfuz etme ve bölgede azalan etkisini artırma fırsatı olarak da değerlendirememektedir. Rusya‟nın esneklikten yoksun dış politikası, Ortadoğu‟nun Rus dış politikasındaki ikincil derecedeki önemi, Arap isyanlarının dış güçlerin bir oyunu olduğu algısı ve bu isyanların Rusya içinde ve yakın çevresinde yaratabileceği kaos ve istikrarsızlık endişesi, Rusya'nın Ortadoğu‟nun yeniden yapılandırılmasında pasif bir rol takınmasının nedenlerini oluşturmaktadır.

Keywords

• Rusya, Rus dış politikası, Arap baharı, Ortadoğu

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