Russia’s Arab Spring Policy

Year 2012, Volume: 4 Issue: 6, 167 - 191, 01.06.2012

Muharrem Erenler

Abstract

One of the regions where Russia‟s interests are constant and historic is the Middle East, which has been being shaken by revolutions and insurgencies since January 2011. Being hesitant between supporting the desire of protestors to overthrow their long-ruling leaders and aligning with the stable authoritarian regimes of the Middle East, Russia has so far failed to adopt a consistent policy. Moreover, by following a low profile policy, Moscow seems indifferent to using the regimes changes as an opportunity to penetrate the region and revive its wading influence in the Middle East. Russia‟s inflexible foreign policy mentality, secondary importance of the Middle East in Russian foreign policy, perception of Arab Spring as a tool of outside powers, and the unrest it could arouse in motherland (as well as near abroad) could account for Moscow‟s reluctance to adopt a proactive role in reorganization of the Middle East.

Keywords

Russia, Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, Middle East

Rusya’nın Arap Baharı Politikası

Abstract

2011 yılının Ocak ayından bu yana devrimler ve isyanlarla sarsılan Ortadoğu, Rus çıkarlarının süreklilik arz ettiği ve tarihi köklere sahip olduğu bir bölge olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Uzun yıllar kendilerini tek adam rejimi ile yöneten idarecilerini devirmeye çalışan protestocular ile otoriter ama istikrarlı rejimleri desteklemek arasında kalan Rusya'nın, şimdiye kadar tutarlı bir politika izlediğini iddia etmek güçtür. Arap devrimleri esnasında düşük bir dış politika profili izleyen Moskova, rejim değişikliklerini bölgeye nüfuz etme ve bölgede azalan etkisini artırma fırsatı olarak da değerlendirememektedir. Rusya‟nın esneklikten yoksun dış politikası, Ortadoğu‟nun Rus dış politikasındaki ikincil derecedeki önemi, Arap isyanlarının dış güçlerin bir oyunu olduğu algısı ve bu isyanların Rusya içinde ve yakın çevresinde yaratabileceği kaos ve istikrarsızlık endişesi, Rusya'nın Ortadoğu‟nun yeniden yapılandırılmasında pasif bir rol takınmasının nedenlerini oluşturmaktadır.

Keywords

Rusya, Rus dış politikası, Arap baharı, Ortadoğu

References

• Baev, Pavel. “Russia‟s Counter-Revolutionary Stance toward the Arab Spring.” Insight Turkey 13 (2009).
• Bagno, Olena. “Russia in the Middle East: An Unlikely Comeback.” Strategic Assessment 12 ( 2009)
• Bassin, Mark. “Eurasianism „Classical‟ and „Neo‟: Lines of Continuity” in Beyond the Empire: Images of Russia in the Eurasian Cultural Context, Tetsuo Mochizuki, Sapporo: Slavic Research Center, 2008.
• Berman, Ilan. “The Bear Is Back.” Accessed January 23, 2012, http://old.nationalreview.com/comment/berman200502180741.asp Berman, Ilan. “Russia and The Mideast Vacuum.” Iasps Research Papers In Strategy, 12 (2001).
• Blank, Stephan. “Russia‟s Anxieties about the Arab Revolution.” Accessed January 23, 2012, http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2011/201107.blankrussiaarabspring.pdf Bourtman, Ilya. “Putin And Russia's Middle Eastern Policy.” MERIA 10 (2006)
• Dağı, Zeynep. “Russia: Back to the Middle East?” Perceptions 14. (2007) Dannreuther, Roland. “Russia and the Arab Revolutions.” Russian Analytical Digest 98 (2011)
• El-Sheikh, Nourhan. “Russian Position on the Arab Revolutions.” Accessed January 23, 2012 http://www.aljazeera.net/mritems/streams/2011/5/23/1_1063343_1_51 .pdf
• Freedman, Robert. “Russian Policy toward the Middle East under Putin: The Impact of 9/11 and The War in Iraq.” Alternatives, 2 (2003). Freedman, Robert. “The Russian Resurgence in the Middle East.” China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, 5 (2007).
• Freedman, Robert. “Russia, Israel and the Arab-Israeli Conflict: The Putin Years.” Middle East Policy 17 (2010)
• Freedman, Robert. “Russia And The "Arab Spring: A Preliminary Appraisal.” Accessed January 23, 2012 http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/russia-wayne-merry-russianreaction-arab-spring-249.cfm
• Freeland, Chrystia. “In Egypt and Tunisia, Lessons for Autocrats Everywhere.” New York Times, February 3, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/middleeast/04ihtletter04.html
• Freire, Maria. “Russian Policy in Central Asia: Supporting, Balancing, Coercing, or Imposing?” Asian Perspective 33 (2009).
• Kaczmarski, Marcin. “Russia's Middle East policy after the Arab revolutions.” OSW Commentary, 59. (2011)
• Katz, Mark. “Putin's Pro-Israel Policy.” Middle East Quarterly, 12 (2005).
• Katz, Mark. “Russia‟s Policy toward the Middle East.” Russian Analytical Digest 83 (2010).
• Katz, Mark. “Russia and the Arab Spring.” Russian Analytical Digest 98 (2011). Khalidi, Rashid. Sowing Crises. Boston: Beacon Press, 2009.
• Kolobov, Oleg and Kornilov, Alexander. “Middle East Policy of Russia Under President Medvedev.” Bilge Strateji, 2 (2011).
• Kotb, Ahmed. “Old Friends, New Partners.” Al-Ahram Weekly 980, 7 – 13. January 2010 http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2010/980/ec3.htm
• Kreutz, Andrej. Russia in the Middle East: Friend or Foe? Connecticut: Praeger, 2007.
• Magen, Zvi. “The Arab Spring and Russian Policy in the Middle East.” INSS Insight 282 (2011). Magen, Zvi. “Russia in the New Middle East.” INSS Insight 252 (2011).
• Margot, Light. “In Search of an Identity: Russian Foreign Policy And The End Of Ideology.” Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 19 (2003).
• Walberg, Eric. “Russia‟s Middle East Dilemma.” Al-Ahram Weekly, September 8, 2011. http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1063/re14.htm
• Trenin, Dmitri. “Russia and the Winter of Revolutions in the Arab World”. Accessed January 23, 2012. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/ideas/2011/03/russia-and-the-winter-ofrevolutions-in-the-arab-world/
• Tsygankov, Andrei. Russia’s Foreign Policy. Plymouth: Rowman & Littlefield, 2010.