Research Article
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Year 2023, , 232 - 240, 01.05.2023
https://doi.org/10.47115/bsagriculture.1232578

Abstract

References

  • AbdulRahaman S. 2013. Population growth and food security in Nigeria (2010-2012). Arabian J Busin Manage Rev, 1(3): 41-53.
  • Ahunagwa GT, Sani RM, Gama EN, Adeleke EA. 2019. Effect of population dynamics on household sustainable food security among the rural households of Jigawa State, North-Western Nigeria. In Proceeding of the 6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists, September 23-26, Abuja, Nigeria, pp: 19-20.
  • Aidi HO, Emecheta C, Ngwudiobu IM. 2016. Population and economic growth in Nigeria: Is there an empirical evidence of causality? Inter J Adv Soc Sci Human, 4(2): 59-66.
  • Asua IS. 2016. Malthusian population theory and the Nigerian economy. URL: https://www.academia.edu/30346256/MALTHUSIAN_POPULATION_THEORY (access date: August 16, 2022).
  • Bajagai YS. 2013. Basic concepts of food security: Definitions, dimensions and integrated phase classification. RRL: www.foodenvrionment com/2013 (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Ewugi MS, Yakubu I. 2012. Malthusian population theory and the Nigerian economy: A politic economy approach. Inter J Human Res Stud, 2(4): 197-206.
  • Food and Agriculture Organization FAO. 2021. The state of food security and nutrition in the World. URL: https://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/2021/en/ (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO. 2003. Trade reforms and food security: Conceptualizing the linkages. URL: https://www.fao.org/3/y4671e/y4671e00.htm#Contents (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Idumah F, Mangodo C, Ighodaro U, Owombo P. 2016. Climate change and food production in Nigeria: Implication for food security in Nigeria. J Agri Sci, 8(2): 74-83.
  • Idumah FO, Mangodo C, Ighodaro UB, Owombo PT. 2016. Climate change and food production in Nigeria: Implication for food security in Nigeria. J Agri Sci, 8(2): 74-83.
  • Josephson AL, Ricker-Gilbert J, Florax RJGM. 2014. How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity; Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy, 48: 142-152.
  • Kumar A, Sharma P. 2013. Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India. URL: http://www.economics-eJ.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-43 (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Ladan SI. 2014. An appraisal of climate change and agriculture in Nigeria. J Geograp Region Plan, 7(9): 176-184.
  • Macro Trends Database. 2022. URL: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NGA/nigeria/ (access date: June 20, 2022).
  • Mahrous W. 2019. Climate change and food security in the EAC region: A panel data analysis. Rev Econ Polit Sci, 4(4): 270- 284.
  • Mbah EN, Ezeano CI, Saror SF. 2016. Analysis of climate change effects among rice farmers in Benue State, Nigeria. Current Res Agri Sci, 3(1): 7-15.
  • Mundi Index. 2021. Nigeria population growth rate. URL: https://www.indexmundi.com/nigeria/population_growth_rate.html (access date: June 20, 2022).
  • Ntiamoah EB, Li D, Appiah‑Otoo I, Twumasi MA, Yeboah EN. 2022. Towards a sustainable food production: modelling the impacts of climate change on maize and soybean production in Ghana. Environ Sci Pollut Res, 29: 72777–72796.
  • Oladimeji YU. 2017. Food production trend in Nigeria and Malthus theory of population: Empirical evidence from rice production. Nigerian J Agri Food Environ, 13(1): 126-132.
  • Osu AK. 2017. Population dynamics and food security in Nigeria. International J Adv Stud Econ Public Sector Manage, 5(2): 129-139.
  • Osuafor AM, Nnorom NR. 2014. Impact of climate change on food security in Nigeria. Inter J Sci Technol, 3(1): 208-219.
  • Pontianus VJ, Oruonye ED. 2021. The Nigerian population: A treasure for national development or an unsurmountable national challenge. Inter J Sci Res Arch, 2(1): 136–142.
  • Salako MA, Lawrence A, Aremu YS, Egbekunle SO. 2015. Agriculture, economic growth and development nexus: VAR variance decomposition evidence from Nigeria. Inter J Econ Commer Manage, 3(6): 460-478.
  • Sibanda LM, Mwamakamba SN. 2021. Policy considerations for African food systems: Towards the United Nations 2021 Food Systems Summit. Sustainability, 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13169018
  • UNFCCC. 2011. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Fact sheet. Climate change science – the status of climate change science today. URL: https://unfccc.int/files/press/backgrounders/application/pdf/press_factsh_science.pdf (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Xie H, Wen Y, Choi Y, Zhang X. 2021. Global trends on food security research: A bibliometric analysis. Land, 10: 1-21.
  • Zewdie A. 2014. Impacts of climate change on food security: A literature review in Sub-Saharan Africa. J Earth Sci Climate Change, 5(8): 1-4.

Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on Food Security in Nigeria

Year 2023, , 232 - 240, 01.05.2023
https://doi.org/10.47115/bsagriculture.1232578

Abstract

Food production in Nigeria has not matched with the rate of population growth leading to reduction of national food independence and self-reliance. As a result, Nigeria is facing serious food insecurity. Therefore, this research examined the impacts of climate change and population growth on food security in Nigeria. Annual time-series of food security (proxy of food production index), annual rainfall, annual temperature, population growth rate, urban population rate and agricultural land used from 1980 to 2019 were used. The research used Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Johansen Cointegration test and Vector Error Correlation Models (VECM) were used to analyze the data. ADF unit root test result shows that all variables were completely stationary at the first different orders I(1) at both at intercept and intercept with trend at level of significance of 1%. Three (3) lags were conclusively selects as the optimum lag in the VAR model. The result of the estimation indicates that the Johansen cointegration shows an existence of long-run relationship among the variables used in the study. The result of the VECM estimation shows that rainfall, temperatures, population growth rate and agricultural land used were negatively significantly related to food security at various levels of significance (1%, 5% and 10%). At the long-run all the variables were adversely related to food security in Nigeria. The coefficient of multiple determinations (R2) indicates about 91%, the adjusted R2 of 0.86 was obtained and Durbin-Watson of 2.1 was obtained which implies that the tools were good fit to estimates the data. Decomposition of variance shows dwindling in food security. The research therefore recommends public enlightenment campaign on birth control; and appropriate climate change adaptation methods should be adopted to enhance food security in Nigeria among others.

References

  • AbdulRahaman S. 2013. Population growth and food security in Nigeria (2010-2012). Arabian J Busin Manage Rev, 1(3): 41-53.
  • Ahunagwa GT, Sani RM, Gama EN, Adeleke EA. 2019. Effect of population dynamics on household sustainable food security among the rural households of Jigawa State, North-Western Nigeria. In Proceeding of the 6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists, September 23-26, Abuja, Nigeria, pp: 19-20.
  • Aidi HO, Emecheta C, Ngwudiobu IM. 2016. Population and economic growth in Nigeria: Is there an empirical evidence of causality? Inter J Adv Soc Sci Human, 4(2): 59-66.
  • Asua IS. 2016. Malthusian population theory and the Nigerian economy. URL: https://www.academia.edu/30346256/MALTHUSIAN_POPULATION_THEORY (access date: August 16, 2022).
  • Bajagai YS. 2013. Basic concepts of food security: Definitions, dimensions and integrated phase classification. RRL: www.foodenvrionment com/2013 (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Ewugi MS, Yakubu I. 2012. Malthusian population theory and the Nigerian economy: A politic economy approach. Inter J Human Res Stud, 2(4): 197-206.
  • Food and Agriculture Organization FAO. 2021. The state of food security and nutrition in the World. URL: https://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/2021/en/ (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO. 2003. Trade reforms and food security: Conceptualizing the linkages. URL: https://www.fao.org/3/y4671e/y4671e00.htm#Contents (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Idumah F, Mangodo C, Ighodaro U, Owombo P. 2016. Climate change and food production in Nigeria: Implication for food security in Nigeria. J Agri Sci, 8(2): 74-83.
  • Idumah FO, Mangodo C, Ighodaro UB, Owombo PT. 2016. Climate change and food production in Nigeria: Implication for food security in Nigeria. J Agri Sci, 8(2): 74-83.
  • Josephson AL, Ricker-Gilbert J, Florax RJGM. 2014. How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity; Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy, 48: 142-152.
  • Kumar A, Sharma P. 2013. Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India. URL: http://www.economics-eJ.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-43 (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Ladan SI. 2014. An appraisal of climate change and agriculture in Nigeria. J Geograp Region Plan, 7(9): 176-184.
  • Macro Trends Database. 2022. URL: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NGA/nigeria/ (access date: June 20, 2022).
  • Mahrous W. 2019. Climate change and food security in the EAC region: A panel data analysis. Rev Econ Polit Sci, 4(4): 270- 284.
  • Mbah EN, Ezeano CI, Saror SF. 2016. Analysis of climate change effects among rice farmers in Benue State, Nigeria. Current Res Agri Sci, 3(1): 7-15.
  • Mundi Index. 2021. Nigeria population growth rate. URL: https://www.indexmundi.com/nigeria/population_growth_rate.html (access date: June 20, 2022).
  • Ntiamoah EB, Li D, Appiah‑Otoo I, Twumasi MA, Yeboah EN. 2022. Towards a sustainable food production: modelling the impacts of climate change on maize and soybean production in Ghana. Environ Sci Pollut Res, 29: 72777–72796.
  • Oladimeji YU. 2017. Food production trend in Nigeria and Malthus theory of population: Empirical evidence from rice production. Nigerian J Agri Food Environ, 13(1): 126-132.
  • Osu AK. 2017. Population dynamics and food security in Nigeria. International J Adv Stud Econ Public Sector Manage, 5(2): 129-139.
  • Osuafor AM, Nnorom NR. 2014. Impact of climate change on food security in Nigeria. Inter J Sci Technol, 3(1): 208-219.
  • Pontianus VJ, Oruonye ED. 2021. The Nigerian population: A treasure for national development or an unsurmountable national challenge. Inter J Sci Res Arch, 2(1): 136–142.
  • Salako MA, Lawrence A, Aremu YS, Egbekunle SO. 2015. Agriculture, economic growth and development nexus: VAR variance decomposition evidence from Nigeria. Inter J Econ Commer Manage, 3(6): 460-478.
  • Sibanda LM, Mwamakamba SN. 2021. Policy considerations for African food systems: Towards the United Nations 2021 Food Systems Summit. Sustainability, 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13169018
  • UNFCCC. 2011. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Fact sheet. Climate change science – the status of climate change science today. URL: https://unfccc.int/files/press/backgrounders/application/pdf/press_factsh_science.pdf (access date: September 27, 2022).
  • Xie H, Wen Y, Choi Y, Zhang X. 2021. Global trends on food security research: A bibliometric analysis. Land, 10: 1-21.
  • Zewdie A. 2014. Impacts of climate change on food security: A literature review in Sub-Saharan Africa. J Earth Sci Climate Change, 5(8): 1-4.
There are 27 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Agricultural Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Adeyinka Aroyehun 0000-0002-9117-8263

Early Pub Date April 30, 2023
Publication Date May 1, 2023
Submission Date January 11, 2023
Acceptance Date March 15, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023

Cite

APA Aroyehun, A. (2023). Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on Food Security in Nigeria. Black Sea Journal of Agriculture, 6(3), 232-240. https://doi.org/10.47115/bsagriculture.1232578

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