Estimate of Structural Fractures in Wheat Culture and Production in Türkiye by Econometric Analysis

Year 2023, , 411 - 415, 01.07.2023

İsmail Gök , Mustafa Şahin

https://doi.org/10.47115/bsagriculture.1285159

Abstract

This study, it was aimed to determine the amount of wheat fields planted in Türkiye and the structural breaks in wheat yield in the specified years. The data set obtained for this purpose was obtained from the wheat production and wheat cultivation area in the statistical tables between 1995 and 2020 published by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO). According to the estimation results; the data set obtained from the wheat planting area in the statistical tables between 1995 and 2020 was stabilized by taking the first differences and the red lines in the given table were left from the second half of 2005 to the beginning of 2014, there was a structural break between these years. It was determined by the analysis that there was a structural break between these years, since the data set was stabilized by taking the first differences and the red lines in the given chart were exceeded from the second half of 2005 to the beginning of 2015.

Keywords

Wheat, Wheat yield, Cultivation area, Years, Econometric program

References

• Anonymous. 2001. Wheat Report. T. C. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Research Planning and Coordination Board Presidency, Research and Statistics Department, Ankara, Türkiye.
• Atar B. 2017. The journey of our food wheat from the past to the future. Yalvaç Acad J, 2(1): 1-12.
• Brown RL, Durbin J, Evans JM. 1975. Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. J Royal Stat Soc, 37(2): 149-192.
• Çetin R. 2020. Is Türkiye still self-sufficient in agricultural products? An analysis through foreign trade data. Sakarya J Econ, 9 (2): 160-173.
• Diamond J. 2006. Rifle, germ and steel. Vintage Books, London, UK, pp: 480.
• Dickey D, Fuller W. 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with unit root. J American Stat Assoc, 74(366): 427-432.
• Dickey D, Fuller W. 1981. Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4): 1057-1072.
• Duru S, Gül A, Hayran S. 2019. Wheat and wheat products foreign trade structure in Turkey. Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Univ J Soc Sci, 4(2): 552-564.
• Duru S, Parlakay O. 2021. The Effect of climate change on honey yield in Turkey: ARDL boundary test approach. Mustafa Kemal Univ J Agri Sci, 26(3): 701-800.
• Gumüşsoy FG. 2021. Determining the relationship between dry onion production and price with ARDL boundary test and almon model: Spider Web theorem. J Econ Finance, 4(1): 38-55.
• Kurt C. 2012. Process flow and energy consumption in wheat processing factory. Master Thesis, Namık Kemal University, Institute of Science, Department of Biosystems Engineering, Tekirdağ, Türkiye, pp: 52.
• Tanno K, Willcox G. 2006. How fast was wild wheat domesticated? URL: www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/311/5769/1886/DC1 (accessed date: July 28, 2017).
• Tiryakioğlu M, Demirtaş B, Tutar H. 2017. Comparison of wheat yield in Turkey: The case of Hatay and Şanlıurfa provinces. J Fac Agri, 12(1): 56-67.
• TMO. 2021. Grain sector report for 2020, URL: https://www.tmo.gov.tr/ info-center/reports (accessed date: February 10, 2023).
• Turhan S. 2008. Evaluation of the pasta industry in terms of competitiveness in Turkey. J Efficiency, (4): 115-125.