A Detailed Examination of Türkiye's Projected Precipitation and Growth Season Trends under Climate Change Condition

Year 2024, Volume: 7 Issue: 3, 215 - 223, 15.05.2024

Eser Çeliktopuz

https://doi.org/10.47115/bsagriculture.1416956

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of Türkiye's changing precipitation patterns and growing season dynamics in the context of global warming, utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. In light of global warming, this study provides a thorough analysis of Türkiye's evolving precipitation patterns and growing season dynamics using multiple RCP scenarios and CMIP5. The research aims to fill a crucial gap in climate research by combining historical data and future projections to assess Türkiye's precipitation path under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The study employs linear regression for trend analysis and uses data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), with a focus on precipitation data from 1986 to 2100. According to various RCP scenarios, this study’s findings show a considerable variation in precipitation trends over the 21st century. The RCP 8.5 scenario predicts a significant decrease in precipitation, which would present difficulties for the management of water resources and agricultural productivity. In contrast, the least severe RCP 2.6 pathway shows a fairly stable pattern of precipitation. Complex seasonal hydrological responses to climate change are revealed by monthly precipitation analysis; RCP8.5 predicts an increase in the frequency of periods of drought and heavy precipitation events. The impact of these changes in precipitation on Türkiye's agricultural growing seasons was further investigated in this study. In high-emission scenarios, there was an initial tendency towards longer growing seasons, which were subsequently followed by shorter ones. This suggests that although global warming might initially result in an extended growing season, it might ultimately cause a reduction in it, particularly in situations where mitigation efforts are minimal. The need for adaptable strategies that can respond to long-term climate trends as well as seasonal variability was highlighted by this research. It draws attention to the fact that to mitigate the effects of climate variability, informed policy decisions and integrated resource management are essential. The results highlight the need for quick action to lower the risks associated with water and highlight the potential advantages of intensive mitigation efforts in stabilizing and extending growing seasons.

Keywords

Climate change projections, Hydrological variability, RCP scenarios analysis

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