Comparative Analysis of LSTM and ARIMA Models in Stock Price Prediction: A Technology Company Example

Year 2024, , 866 - 873, 15.09.2024

Yasin Kırelli

https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1445997

Abstract

Stock price forecasting has been an important area of interest for economists and computer scientists. In addition to traditional statistical methods, advanced artificial intelligence techniques such as machine learning can stand out with their ability to process complex data sets and adapt to historical data. In recent years, hybrid models combining deep learning and time series methods have demonstrated superior performance in stock selection and portfolio optimization. This study comparatively analyses the performance of LSTM and ARIMA models in time series forecasting. In the study, the stock prices of Oracle company are predicted using two different models, LSTM and ARIMA. Model performance is evaluated using metrics like MSE, MAE, RMSE, and MAPE. Both models have been found to be successful in different metrics. The LSTM model has lower error values; meanwhile, the ARIMA model produced proportionally more accurate forecasts. The study concludes that given the potential offered by deep learning, models such as LSTM are essential for time series forecasting. The flexibility of deep learning allows the development of customized models for different data types and time series problems.

Keywords

LSTM, ARIMA, Time series, Stock price forecasting

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