Statistical Analysis of Income Dynamics in STEM, It and Technical Occupations: The Role of Skill Mismatch and Individual Skills

Abstract

This study is based on the 2022–2023 wave data of the Life in Transition Survey (LITS IV), conducted by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). It presents a statistical analysis of income changes among individuals working in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), information technology, and other technical professions. The analytical sample consists of 2,672 active individuals employed in fields such as engineering, natural sciences, information technology, and applied technical areas. The dependent variable is constructed by comparing individuals’ subjective assessments of their current income levels with their retrospective perceptions of income from four years ago. This variable is defined as an ordinal variable. To examine skill-based factors affecting income changes, five ordered logit regression models were estimated. Key explanatory variables include occupation type, individuals’ subjective evaluations of their technical knowledge, computer and foreign language skills, and the match between their skills and job requirements. Additionally, interaction terms between skill levels and occupational groups were tested in the models. The estimation results indicate that foreign language skills have a consistent, positive, and statistically significant effect on perceived income growth. In contrast, the effects of technical knowledge, computer skills, and skill-job match variables are generally statistically insignificant. Most of the interaction terms were also found to be insignificant. However, a significant and positive effect was observed only among skilled technical workers with moderate levels of technical knowledge. This analysis examines the role of different occupational types and skill levels within the technical workforce on income changes. The findings help us better understand the drivers of individual-level income mobility. They highlight the importance of strengthening foreign language education in vocational training programs to support upward income mobility in technical professions.

Keywords

• Technical occupations
• Income change
• Skill mismatch
• STEM workforce
• Ordered logit regression
• Statistical analysis

Stem, Bilişim ve Teknik Mesleklerde Gelir Dinamiklerinin İstatistiksel Analizi: Beceri Uyumsuzluğu ve Bireysel Becerilerin Rolü

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Avrupa İmar ve Kalkınma Bankası (EBRD) tarafından yürütülen Life in Transition Survey (LITS IV)’ün 2022–2023 dönemi verilerine dayanmaktadır. Çalışma, STEM (fen, teknoloji, mühendislik ve matematik), bilişim ve diğer teknik mesleklerde çalışan bireylerin gelir değişimlerine ilişkin istatistiksel bir analiz sunmaktadır. Analiz örneklemi, mühendislik, fen bilimleri, bilgi teknolojileri ve uygulamalı teknik alanlarda çalışan toplam 2.672 aktif bireyden oluşmaktadır. Bağımlı değişken, bireylerin mevcut gelir düzeylerine ilişkin öznel değerlendirmeleri ile dört yıl öncesine dair geriye dönük gelir algılarının karşılaştırılmasıyla oluşturulmuştur. Bu değişken, sıralı bir değişken olarak tanımlanmıştır. Gelir değişimini etkileyen beceri temelli faktörleri incelemek amacıyla beş adet sıralı logit regresyon modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Temel açıklayıcı değişkenler arasında meslek türü, bireylerin teknik bilgi, bilgisayar ve yabancı dil becerileri ile iş-beceri uyumuna ilişkin öznel değerlendirmeleri yer almaktadır. Ayrıca, beceri düzeyleri ile meslek grupları arasındaki etkileşim terimleri de modellerde test edilmiştir. Tahmin sonuçları, yabancı dil becerisinin gelir artışı algısı üzerinde tutarlı, pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, teknik bilgi, bilgisayar becerileri ve iş-beceri uyumu değişkenlerinin etkileri genel olarak istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Etkileşim terimlerinin büyük kısmı da anlamsız bulunmuştur. Ancak, yalnızca orta düzey teknik bilgiye sahip nitelikli teknik işçilerde anlamlı ve pozitif bir etki gözlemlenmiştir. Bu analiz, teknik iş gücündeki farklı meslek türleri ve beceri düzeylerinin gelir değişimleri üzerindeki rolünü incelemektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, bireysel düzeyde gelir hareketliliğinin nedenlerini daha iyi anlamamıza yardımcı olmaktadır. Bulgular, teknik mesleklerde yukarı yönlü gelir hareketliliğini desteklemek amacıyla mesleki eğitim programlarında yabancı dil eğitiminin güçlendirilmesinin önemine işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

• Teknik meslekler
• Gelir değişimi
• Beceri uyumsuzluğu
• STEM iş gücü
• Sıralı logit regresyon
• İstatistiksel analiz

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