Climatic Suitability Analysis and Evaluation of Pomological Characteristics for Walnut (Juglans regia L.) Cultivation in Kırşehir Province

Abstract

This study was conducted within the boundaries of Kırşehir Province, located between 38°50'–39°50' north latitude and 33°30'–34°50' east longitude. The research material consisted of the climatic and topographic parameters of Kırşehir and its districts, as well as walnut samples collected from these regions. Climatic factors considered included annual total precipitation, minimum temperature, number of days with temperatures below 5°C, relative humidity in spring and summer, number of days temperatures exceeding 30°C, and wind speed. Climatic data covering the period between 2013 and 2023 were obtained from the Kırşehir Provincial Meteorological Directorate. Data from eight meteorological stations located in Akçakent, Akpınar, Boztepe (Malya), Çiçekdağı, Çiçekdağı TİGEM, Kaman, Kırşehir, and Mucur were used in the analysis. The spatial distribution of climatic parameters was modeled using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation method in ArcGIS Pro 3.2. Topographic features such as slope and aspect were derived from a 25-meter resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) obtained via the Earth Explorer (USGS) platform. All climatic and topographic layers were weighted according to the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and a Weighted Overlay Analysis was performed to generate the climatic suitability map for walnut cultivation. In addition, walnut samples were collected from selected representative orchards across all districts for pomological evaluation. Pomological traits such as fruit weight, kernel ratio, and shell thickness were measured using a digital caliper and a precision balance on 30 samples to assess the pomological properties of local genotypes and support the regional walnut production potential. According to the results, the most suitable areas for walnut cultivation are concentrated in the northwestern part of Kaman District, particularly around the Hirfanlı Dam, and in the northeastern parts of Çiçekdağı and Boztepe districts. The highest nut and kernel weights were recorded in Kaman and Çiçekdağı districts (P<0.05).

Keywords

• Kırşehir
• Walnut cultivation
• Climatic suitability
• AHP
• Weighted Overlay
• Pomological characteristics

References

1. Ahmad N, Singh SR, Rashid M, Mir H. 2018. Walnut. Central Institute of Temperate Horticulture. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328465311_Walnut (accessed date: August 12, 2025).
2. Akıncı H, Özalp AY, Turgut B. 2013. Agricultural land use suitability analysis using GIS and AHP technique. Comput. Electron. Agric. 97: 71-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2013.07.006
3. Amiri F, Shariff ARBM. 2012. Application of geographic information systems in land-use suitability evaluation for beekeeping: A case study of Vahregan watershed (Iran). Afr. J. Agric. Res. 7(1): 89-97.
4. Anonymous. 1976. A framework for land evaluation (FAO Soils Bulletin No. 32). Rome: FAO.
5. Anonymous. 2000. Minitab, Inc. Minitab statistical software (Version 12) (Computer software).
6. Anonymous. 2022. Esri, ArcGIS Pro (Version 3.2) Computer software. URL: https://www.esri.com (accessed date: August 20, 2025).
7. Anonymous. 2023. GADM, Database of Global Administrative Areas (GADM), version 4.1. URL: https://gadm.org (accessed date: September 03, 2025).
8. Anonymous. 2023a. Kırşehir Meteoroloji İl Müdürlüğü. (2013–2023 iklim verileri arşivi). T.C. Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü. URL: https://www.mgm.gov.tr (accessed date: August 05, 2025).

9. Anonymous. 2023b. U.S. Geological Survey. USGS Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for Kırşehir Province, Turkey. URL: https://www.usgs.gov/ (accessed date: August 20, 2025).
10. Atmaca B, Cüce M. 2023. Kelkit Vadisi’nde ceviz yetiştiriciliğine uygun alanların belirlenmesinde Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemlerinin kullanımı: Giresun ili Şebinkarahisar örneği. Karadeniz Fen Bil Derg, 13(2): 561-582. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1241570
11. Başayiğit L, Şenol H. 2008. Meyve yetiştirme potansiyeli yüksek alanların CBS ile belirlenebilirliği ve uzaktan algılama kontrolü. Ziraat Fak Derg, 3(1): 1-8.
12. Bükücü SB, Sütyemez M. 2016. The determination of the chilling requirements of some walnut (Juglans regia L.) cultivars and types. Turk J Agri Nat Sci, 3(4): 305-310.
13. Bunning S, De Pauw E. 2017. Land resource planning for sustainable land management. Land and Water Division Working Paper No. 14. FAO.
14. Everest T, Sungur A, Özcan H. 2021. Applying the best–worst method for land evaluation: A case study for paddy cultivation in northwest Turkey. Int J Environ Sci Technol, 19: 3233-3246.
15. Fotirić Akšić M, Ercisli S, Meland M, Bujdosó G. 2024. Cooler is better: Temperature’s role in reproductive biology of Persian walnut (Juglans regia) in a Hungarian cultivar. Appl. Fruit Sci, 66(5): 1963–1976. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10341-024-01155-z
16. Gao Z, Li Z, Chen J. 2018. Planning and suggestions for walnut production areas in Beijing. 10th Int. Conf. Meas. Technol. Mechatronics Autom. (ICMTMA), February 10-11, Changsha, China, pp: 358-361.
17. Grange RI, Hand DW. 1987. A review of the effects of atmospheric humidity on horticultural crop growth. J Hortic Sci, 62(2): 125-134. https://doi.org/10.1080/14620316.1987.11515760
18. Ishchuk H, Shlapak V, Ishchuk L, Bayura O, Kurka S. 2021. The introduced North American Juglans species in the Right-Bank Forest-Steppe of Ukraine. Trakya Univ J Nat Sci, 22(1): 77-92. https://doi.org/10.23902/trkjnat.805761
19. Karas E, Oğuz İ, Koçyiğit R. 2017. Çelikli Havzası arazisinin detaylı toprak etüt, haritalama ve sınıflandırılması. Anadolu Tar Bil Derg, 32(1): 105-113. https://doi.org/10.7161/omuanajas.289027
20. Karas E. 2020. Evaluation of a sustainable land use planning model in the Elmalı basin. Environ Monit Assess, 192: 255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-8203-8
21. Karimi F, Sultana S, Shirzadi Babakan A, Royall D. 2018. Land suitability evaluation for organic wheat using GIS and multicriteria analysis. Papers Appl Geogr, 4(3): 326-342. https://doi.org/10.1080/23754931.2018.1448715
22. Keleş H. 2021. Flowers and fertilization biology in walnuts. İksad Yayınevi, Ankara, Türkiye, pp: 396.
23. Kırca S, Yarılgaç T, Kırca L, Bak T. 2014. Study on selection of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Trabzon. Turk J Agri Nat Sci, 1(Special Issue 1): 835-841.
24. Lu GY, Wong DW. 2008. An adaptive inverse-distance weighting spatial interpolation technique. Comput Geosci, 34(9): 1044-1055. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2007.07.010
25. Muradoğlu F, Balta F. 2007. Hakkâri yöresi cevizlerinin seleksiyonla ıslahı. 5th National Horticulture Science Congress, September 02-05, Erzurum, Türkiye, pp: 294-298.
26. Özbek S. 1975. Genel Meyvecilik. Çukurova Univ. Ziraat Fak. Yayınları (Ders Kitabı 31): Adana, Türkiye.
27. Pilevar AR, Matinfar HR, Sohrabi A, Sarmadian F. 2020. Integrated fuzzy, AHP and GIS techniques for land suitability assessment in semi-arid regions for wheat and maize. Ecol Indic, 110: 105887. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105887
28. Ponder FJr. 2004. Soil and nutritio n for black walnut. In Black Walnut in a New Century, Proc. 6th Walnut Council Res. Symp., July 25-28, Lafayette, Indiana, pp: 71-77.
29. Popa RG, Bălăcescu A, Popescu LG. 2023. Organic walnut cultivation in intensive/super-intensive systems: Case of Gorj (Romania). Sustainability 15(2): 1244. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15021244
30. Sarkar B, Das P, Islam N, Basak A, Debnath, Roy R. 2021. Land suitability analysis for paddy using GIS-based fuzzy-AHP in Koch Bihar district, West Bengal. Geocarto Int, 37(25): 8952-8978. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2021.2007299
31. Şen F, Bilgin S, Özeker E, Acarsoy Bilgin N. 2018. Determination of morphological and pomological characteristics of some walnut cultivars in Menemen conditions. ÇOMÜ Ziraat Fak Derg, 6(1): 31-39.
32. Şen SM. 1980. Kuzeydoğu Anadolu ve Doğu Karadeniz bölgesi cevizlerinin (Juglans regia L.) seleksiyonla ıslahı. Doçentlik Tezi, Atatürk Üniversitesi, Erzurum, Türkiye.
33. Şen SM. 2011. Ceviz yetiştiriciliği, besin değeri, folkloru. ÜÇM Yayınları, Ankara, Türkiye, pp: 168-170.
34. Sharma R, Kamble SS, Gunasekaran A. 2018. Big GIS analytics framework for agri supply chains: review. Comput Electron Agri, 155: 103-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2018.10.001
35. Soleimani M, Hamzeh S, Papi R. 2018. Potential assessment for walnut cultivation using fuzzy AHP in Tehran. J Water Resour Conserv, 8(1): 49-71.
36. Verma MK. 2014. Walnut production technology. Indian Agri Res Inst, 1-12. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/M-K Verma/publication/282365700_Walnut_Production_Technology/links/560ec2fa08aec422d1128fa2/Walnut-Production-Technology.pdf (accessed date: August 03, 2025).
37. Yıldırım YE. 2002. GAP Bölgesinde çeşitli bitkilerin yetişebileceği alanların belirlenmesi. In GAP Bölgesinde Sulama Durumu, İklim, Bitki ve Türdeş Alanlar, Başbakanlık GAP İdaresi, Ankara, Türkiye, pp: 147-197.
38. Zhou YD, Shi ML. 2009. Rail transit project risk evaluation based on AHP model. 2009 Second International Conference on Information and Computing Science, May 21-22, Manchester, UK, pp: 236-238. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICIC.2009.265