Modeling Climate Change Scenarios for Spring Barley in Southeast of Almaty in Kazakhstan Using the LINTUL Approach

Year 2024, Volume: 7 Issue: 3, 465 - 472, 15.05.2024

Aidana Sabitova , Gulnur Suleımanova , Tefide Kizildeniz , Ali Kaan Yetik

https://doi.org/10.34248/bsengineering.1445076

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Barley stands as a cornerstone in agricultural landscape of Kazakhstan, weaving through diverse climate zones, and annually gracing over 1.5 million hectares. The intricate interplay between climate and food systems necessitates thorough analysis and strategic measures to food safety and nutritional security, as the evolving climate significantly influences both the quantity and quality of our food resources. This study aims to employ the LINTUL-MULTICROP Model to assess how spring barley adapts to both today’s climatic conditions and potential climate change scenarios to elevated levels of carbon dioxide and temperature under the specific conditions of southeast of Almaty. Three different global climate change models were studied (GCMs); i) GFDL-ESM2M, ii) HadGEM2-AO, and iii) MPI-ESM-MR for historical period (1986-2005) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 during the periods of i) 2040-2059 years scenarios, ii) 2060-2079 years scenarios, and iii) 2080-2099 years scenarios. Overall, the HADGEMAO and MPIESMMR models exhibited promising results in simulating yield, projecting an increase in spring barley yield for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in GFDL-ESM2M model case also demonstrated stable increase in rainfed conditions. In conclusion, it should be noted that in the conditions of Kazakhstan, the cultivation of spring barley tends to change to growth in the southeast of Almaty.

Keywords

Climate change, LINTUL, Spring barley, Yield, Crop modeling

References

• Ahmed M, Asif M, Hirani AH, Akram MN, Goyal A. 2013. Modeling for agricultural sustainability: a review. Bhullar G, Bhullar NK, editors. Agriculture Sustainability. Elsevier, London, UK, pp: 145.
• Akhavizadegan F, Ansarifar J, Wang L, Huber I, Archontoulis SV. 2021. A time-dependent parameter estimation framework for crop modeling. Sci Rep, 11(1): 11437.
• Al-Bakri J, Suleiman A, Abdulla F, Ayad J. 2011. Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan. Phys Chem Earth A/B/C/, 36(5-6): 125-134.
• Aşık M, Yetik AK, Candoğan BN, Kuşçu H. 2021. Determining the yield responses of maize plant under different irrigation scenarios with AquaCrop model. Int J Agric Environ Food Sci, 5(3): 260-270.
• Bento VA, Ribeiro AF, Russo A, Gouveia CM, Cardoso RM, Soares PM. 2021. The impact of climate change in wheat and barley yields in the Iberian Peninsula. Sci Rep, 11(1): 15484.
• Boote KJ, Jones JW, White JW, Asseng S, Lizaso JI. 2013. Putting mechanisms into crop production models. Plant Cell Environ, 36(9): 1658-1672.
• Bunce JA. 2004. Carbon dioxide effects on stomatal responses to the environment and water use by crops under field conditions. Oecologia, 140: 1-10.
• Craufurd PQ, Vadez V, Jagadish SK, Prasad PV, Zaman-Allah, M. 2013. Crop science experiments designed to inform crop modeling. Agric For Meteorol, 170: 8-18.
• Dokuchaev VV. 1899. A contribution to the theory of natural zones: Horizontal and vertical soil zones. Mayor’s Office Press, St. Petersburg, Russia, pp: 123.
• Farré I, Van Oijen M, Leffelaar PA, Faci JM. 2000. Analysis of maize growth for different irrigation strategies in northeastern Spain. Eur J Agron, 12(3-4): 225-238.
• Fleming ZL, Doherty RM, Von Schneidemesser E, Malley CS, Cooper OR, Pinto JP, Feng Z. 2018. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day ozone distribution and trends relevant to human health. Elem Sci Anth, 6: 12.
• Ford MA, Thorne GN. 1967. Effect of CO2 concentration on growth of sugar-beet, barley, kale, and maize. Ann Bot, 31(4): 629-644.
• Franke AC, Haverkort AJ, Steyn JM. 2013. Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems 2. Assessing risks and opportunities of adaptation strategies. Potato Res, 56: 51-66.
• Gardi MW, Memic E, Zewdu E, Graeff‐Hönninger S. 2022. Simulating the effect of climate change on barley yield in Ethiopia with the DSSAT‐CERES‐Barley model. Agron J, 114(2): 1128-1145.
• Genievskaya Y, Almerekova S, Sariev B, Chudinov V, Tokhetova L, Sereda G, Turuspekov Y. 2018. Marker-trait associations in two-rowed spring barley accessions from Kazakhstan and the USA. PLoS one, 13(10): e0205421.
• Gergis J. 2023. Humanity's moment: A climate scientist's case for hope. Island Press, London, UK, pp: 45.
• Gimplinger DM, Kaul HP. 2012. Calibration and validation of the crop growth model LINTUL for grain amaranth (Amaranthus sp.). J App Bot Food Qual, 82(2): 183-192.
• Giraldo P, Benavente E, Manzano-Agugliaro F, Gimenez E. 2019. Worldwide research trends on wheat and barley: A bibliometric comparative analysis. Agron, 9(7): 352.
• Goyne PJ, Milroy SP, Lilley JM, Hare JM. 1993. Radiation interception, radiation use efficiency and growth of barley cultivars. Aust J Agric Res, 44(6): 1351-1366.
• Gray SB, Brady SM. 2016. Plant developmental responses to climate change. Dev Biol, 419(1): 64-77.
• Gregory PJ, Ingram JS, Brklacich M. 2005. Climate change and food security. Phil Trans R Soc A, 360(1463): 2139-2148.
• Haverkort AJ, Franke AC, Engelbrecht FA, Steyn JM. 2013. Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems 1. Effects on land and water use efficiencies. Potato Res, 56: 31-50.
• Hibberd JM, Richardson P, Whitbread R, Farrar JF. 1996. Effects of leaf age, basal meristem and infection with powdery mildew on photosynthesis in barley grown in 700 μmol mol− 1 CO2. New Phytol, 134(2): 317-325.
• Jeong S, Ko J, Shin T, Yeom JM. 2022. Incorporation of machine learning and deep neural network approaches into a remote sensing-integrated crop model for the simulation of rice growth. Sci Rep, 12(1): 9030.
• Kimball BA, Kobayashi K, Bindi M. 2002. Responses of agricultural crops to free-air CO2 enrichment. Adv Agron, 77: 293-368.
• Kizildeniz, T. (2024). Assessing the growth dynamics of alfalfa varieties (Medicago sativa cv. Bilensoy 80 and Nimet) response to varied carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Heliyon, DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28975.
• Kizildeniz T, Pascual I, Irigoyen JJ, Morales F. 2021. Future CO2, warming and water deficit impact white and red Tempranillo grapevine: Photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2 and biomass allocation. Physiol Plant, 172(3): 1779-1794.
• Ko J, Ng CT, Jeong S, Kim JH, Lee B, Kim HY. 2019. Impacts of regonal climate change on barley yield and its geographical variation in South Korea. Int Agrophys, 33(1): :81-96.
• Long SP, Ainsworth EA, Leakey AD, Morgan PB. 2005. Global food insecurity. Treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated future yields. Phil Trans R Soc B, 360(1463): 2011-2020.
• Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Zhao ZC. 2007. Global climate projections. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp: 41.
• McMichael A. 2017. Climate change and the health of nations: famines, fevers, and the fate of populations. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, pp: 28.
• Mirgol B, Nazari M, Eteghadipour M. 2020. Modelling climate change impact on irrigation water requirement and yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), and fodder maize (Zea mays L.) in the semi-arid Qazvin Plateau, Iran. Agric, 10(3): 60.
• Newton AC, Guy DC, Bengough AG, Gordon DC, McKenzie BM, Sun B, Hallett PD. 2012. Soil tillage effects on the efficacy of cultivars and their mixtures in winter barley. Field Crops Res, 128: 91-100.
• Oteng-Darko P, Yeboah S, Addy SNT, Amponsah S, Danquah EO. 2013. Crop modeling: A tool for agricultural research–A review. J Agri Res Develop, 2(1): 1-6.
• Pettersson R, Lee HSJ, Jarvis PG. 1993. The effect of CO 2 concentration on barley. URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00048180 (accessed date: April 14, 2022).
• Raza A, Razzaq A, Mehmood SS, Zou X, Zhang X, Lv Y, Xu J. 2019. Impact of climate change on crops adaptation and strategies to tackle its outcome: A review. Plants, 8(2): 34.
• Reddy PP, Reddy PP. 2015. Impacts of climate change on agriculture. Reddy PP, editor. Climate resilient agriculture for ensuring food security. Springer, London, UK, pp: 43-90.
• Reynolds M, Kropff M, Crossa J, Koo J, Kruseman G, Molero Milan A, Vadez V. 2018. Role of modelling in international crop research: overview and some case studies. Agron, 8(12): 291.
• Saebo A, Mortensen LM. 1996. Growth, morphology and yield of wheat, barley and oats grown at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration in a cool, maritime climate. Agric Ecosyst Environ, 57(1): 9-15.
• Sehgal A, Sita K, Siddique KH, Kumar R, Bhogireddy S, Varshney RK, Nayyar H. 2018. Drought or/and heat-stress effects on seed filling in food crops: impacts on functional biochemistry, seed yields, and nutritional quality. Front Plant Sci, 9: 1705.
• Shibu ME, Leffelaar PA, Van Keulen H, Aggarwal PK. 2010. LINTUL3, a simulation model for nitrogen-limited situations: Application to rice. European J Agron, 32(4): 255-271.
• Sicher RC, Bunce JA. 1997. Relationship of photosynthetic acclimation to changes of Rubisco activity in field-grown winter wheat and barley during growth in elevated carbon dioxide. Photosynth Res, 52: 27-38.
• Spitters CJT. 1989. Crop Growth Models: Their usefulness and limitations. Acta Hortic, 267: 349-368.
• Spitters CJ, Schapendonk AH. 1990. Evaluation of breeding strategies for drought tolerance in potato by means of crop growth simulation. Gen Aspects Plant Min Nut, 2: 151-161.
• Stacey P, O'Kiely P, Hackett R, Rice B, O'Mara FP. 2006. Changes in yield and composition of barley, wheat and triticale grains harvested during advancing stages of ripening. Ir J Agric Food Res, 2006: 197-209.
• Tao F, Rötter RP, Palosuo T, Gregorio Hernández Díaz‐Ambrona C, Mínguez MI, Semenov MA, Schulman AH. 2018. Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments. Global Change Biol, 24(3): 1291-1307.
• Trnka M, Dubrovský M, Žalud Z. 2004. Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in spring barley production in the Czech Republic. Clima Change, 64(1-2): 227-255.
• Van der Werf HM, Petit J. 2002. Evaluation of the environmental impact of agriculture at the farm level: a comparison and analysis of 12 indicator-based methods. Agric Ecosyst Environ, 93(1-3): 131-145.
• Wajid A, Hussain K, Ilyas A, Habib-ur-Rahman M, Shakil Q, Hoogenboom G. 2021. Crop models: Important tools in decision support system to manage wheat production under vulnerable environments. Agric, 11(11): 1166.
• Wang J, Vanga SK, Saxena R, Orsat V, Raghavan V. 2018. Effect of climate change on the yield of cereal crops: A review. Clim, 6(2): 41.
• Weigel HJ, Manderscheid R, Jäger HJ, Mejer GJ. 1994. Effects of season-long CO2 enrichment on cereals. I. Growth performance and yield. Agric Ecosyst Environ, 48(3): 231-240.
• WorldClim. 2023. Climate Data at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Disponible URL: http://www.wdi.worldbank.org/ (accessed date: 15 January, 2024).
• Yagiz AK, Cakici M, Aydogan N, Omezli S, Yerlikaya BA, Ayten S, Haverkort AJ. 2020. Exploration of climate change effects on shifting potato seasons, yields, and water use employing NASA and national long-term weather data. Potato Res, 63: 565-577.
• Yetik AK, Kızıldeniz T, Ünal Z. 2023. Simulating The Yield Responses of Sugar Beet to Different Climate Change Scenarios by LINTUL-MULTICROP Model. BSJ Eng Sci, 6(2): 53-59.
• Zenda T, Liu S, Dong A, Duan H. 2021. Advances in cereal crop genomics for resilience under climate change. Life, 11(6): 502.
• Zhu, T., Fonseca De Lima, C. F., De Smet, I. (2021). The heat is on: how crop growth, development, and yield respond to high temperature. J Exp Bot, 72(21): 7359-7373.