A CAUSALITY ANALYSIS ON EDUCATION EXPENSES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SAMPLE ON TURKEY

Abstract

In this study, the existence of the co-integration and causality relationship between the variables of “education expenses” and “economic growth” in the Turkish economy during the 2003:Q1-2018:Q2 period have been tested by means of the Engle-Granger co-integration test and causality analysis based on error correction model. According to the results of the co-integration analysis, at least one co-integration vector has been detected between these two variables. The results of causality analysis, in turn have revealed that economic growth is in fact not the cause of education expenses in the short and long terms; however, education expenses happen to be the cause of economic growth only in the long term. In this regard; it is obvious that the education expenditures, which are crucial for the cultivation of human capital per se, are the main triggers of economic growth. Although educational expenses, which are deemed particularly important especially in advanced economies of the world, don’t have causality effect on the short term economic growth in Turkey, which is a developing country; this fact shouldn’t be interpreted as educational expenses not having a qualitative effect on on economic growth.

EĞİTİM HARCAMALARI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE BİR NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 2003:Q1-2018:Q2 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisine ait eğitim harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri arasındaki eş bütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme testi ve hata düzeltme modeline dayalı nedensellik analizi kullanılarak sınanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre, iki değişken arasında en az bir eşbütünleşme vektörünün olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Nedensellik analizi sonucunda ise ekonomik büyümenin kısa ve uzun dönemde eğitim harcamalarının nedeni olmadığı tespit edilmekle birlikte eğitim harcamalarının sadece uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümenin nedeni olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu bağlamda beşeri sermayenin yetiştirilmesinde son derece önemli olan eğitim harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme için tetikleyici olduğu aşikârdır. Özellikle gelişmiş ekonomilerin ağırlık verdiği eğitim harcamaları, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerden bir olan Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme için kısa dönemde nedensellik etkisi taşımıyor olsa da bu durum eğitim harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde nitelikli bir etki yaratmadığı şeklinde yorumlanmamalıdır. 

Keywords

• Eğitim harcamaları,Ekonomik büyüme,Eşbütünleşme,Nedensellik

References

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