AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO TOURISM DEMAND: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Year 2015, Volume: 64 Issue: 2, 99 - 109, 01.08.2015

Mehmet Yılmaz Buse Büyüm

https://doi.org/10.1501/Commua1_0000000737

https://izlik.org/JA85WB63NU

Abstract

This study focuses on modelling tourism demand with using number of tourists who came to Turkey between the years 1966-2012 (47 years)and bed numbers belonging to accommodation facilities with tourism operation licensed. The number of tourists and beds have only been reached dealingwith the years 1966-2012. Except from these variables, many variables such asstates investment incentives on tourism, tourism revenues, the annual averagetemperature, the parity of foreign currency like Euro, dollar and power of purchasing in the country could be taken into account. The aim of this paper is tocreate a forecasting model about the number of coming tourists and to provideprior information for tourism policies by regarding introduced models. In thissense, forecasting of international tourist arrivals for 2013-2020 is purposed

Keywords

Tourism demand , tourism demand modelling , forecasting , inversemodels , time series models , exponential smoothing models

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