Research Article

A unified ensemble learning framework for electric motor fault diagnosis, thermal state prediction, and remaining useful life estimation

Number: Advanced Online Publication Early Pub Date: October 22, 2026

A unified ensemble learning framework for electric motor fault diagnosis, thermal state prediction, and remaining useful life estimation

Abstract

Electric motors are critical components of modern industrial and transportation systems, making accurate fault diagnosis and predictive maintenance essential for operational reliability. This study proposes a unified machine learning framework for motor fault classification, temperature prediction, and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation using three publicly available electric motor datasets. The proposed pipeline integrates sliding-window segmentation, multi-domain feature extraction, consensus-based feature selection, and physically motivated descriptors derived from electrical and thermal measurements. Five machine learning algorithms, namely Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost, LightGBM, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), were systematically evaluated. For fault diagnosis on the Ottawa UOEMD-VAFCVS dataset, evaluated with a file-level train–test split in which all segments of a recording are kept in the same partition, LightGBM achieved the highest performance on the held-out recordings (Accuracy = 1.0000, F1-score = 1.0000, ROC-AUC = 1.0000). Sliding-window segmentation increased the number of trainable observations from 128 to 2,432 and improved the macro F1-score from 0.569 to above 0.994 across all models. For thermal prediction on the PMSM dataset, LightGBM obtained R² values of 0.993, 0.991, 0.989, and 0.987 for rotor, stator winding, stator tooth, and stator yoke temperatures, respectively, with mean absolute errors below 1.4°C. In an exploratory experiment on the synthetically generated EVIoT dataset, which contains no genuine run-to-failure trajectories, XGBoost and LightGBM reached R² = 0.933 on a 30-step smoothed RUL target; this value largely reflects the smoothing of the target and is reported only as a demonstration of the pipeline, not as validated prognostic capability. A Friedman test over N repeated runs indicated significant differences among the five classifiers (χ² = 11.556, p = 0.021, Kendall’s W = W). Within the evaluated configurations, feature-engineered gradient-boosting models matched or exceeded the LSTM baseline at low computational cost; a systematic comparison with end-to-end deep architecture is left for future work.

Keywords

References

  1. [1] Tiwari D, Miscandlon J, Tiwari A, Jewell GW. A review of circular economy research for electric motors and the role of Industry 4.0 technologies. Sustainability. 2021;13(17):9668. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179668
  2. [2] Cai W, Wu X, Zhou M, Liang Y, Wang Y. Review and development of electric motor systems and electric powertrains for new energy vehicles. Automotive Innovation. 2021;4(1):3-22. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42154-021-00139-z
  3. [3] Ghemari Z, Belkhiri S. Improving the maintenance of electric motors: enhancing reliability and reducing downtime. Safety and Reliability. 2025:1-30. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09617353.2025.2594229
  4. [4] Wróblewski A, Krot P, Zimroz R, Mayer T, Peltola J. Review of linear electric motor hammers—an energy-saving and eco-friendly solution in industry. Energies. 2023;16(2):959. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/en16020959
  5. [5] Sheikh MA, Bakhsh ST, Irfan M, Nor NBM, Nowakowski G. A review to diagnose faults related to three-phase industrial induction motors. Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention. 2022;22(4):1546-1557. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11668-022-01445-2
  6. [6] Lokhande R, Mishra SK, Ronanki D, Shakya P, Edachery V, Koottaparambil L. Review on tribological and vibration aspects in mechanical bearings of electric vehicles: effect of bearing current, shaft voltage, and electric discharge material spalling current. Lubricants. 2025;13(8):349. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/lubricants13080349
  7. [7] Garcia-Calva T, Morinigo-Sotelo D, Fernandez-Cavero V, Romero-Troncoso R. Early detection of faults in induction motors—a review. Energies. 2022;15(21):7855. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/en15217855
  8. [8] Habyarimana M, Adebiyi AA. A review of artificial intelligence applications in predicting faults in electrical machines. Energies. 2025;18(7):1616. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/en18071616

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Deep Learning

Journal Section

Research Article

Early Pub Date

October 22, 2026

Publication Date

-

Submission Date

June 27, 2026

Acceptance Date

October 16, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: Advanced Online Publication

APA
Kökver, Y., Koçkar, N., Selçuk, A. Y., Ekinci, F., Orman, A., & Güzel, M. S. (2026). A unified ensemble learning framework for electric motor fault diagnosis, thermal state prediction, and remaining useful life estimation. Computers and Informatics, Advanced Online Publication, 36-57. https://doi.org/10.62189/ci.1974430
AMA
1.Kökver Y, Koçkar N, Selçuk AY, Ekinci F, Orman A, Güzel MS. A unified ensemble learning framework for electric motor fault diagnosis, thermal state prediction, and remaining useful life estimation. Computers and Informatics. 2026;(Advanced Online Publication):36-57. doi:10.62189/ci.1974430
Chicago
Kökver, Yunus, Neşet Koçkar, Ahmet Yasin Selçuk, Fatih Ekinci, Abdullah Orman, and Mehmet Serdar Güzel. 2026. “A Unified Ensemble Learning Framework for Electric Motor Fault Diagnosis, Thermal State Prediction, and Remaining Useful Life Estimation”. Computers and Informatics, no. Advanced Online Publication: 36-57. https://doi.org/10.62189/ci.1974430.
EndNote
Kökver Y, Koçkar N, Selçuk AY, Ekinci F, Orman A, Güzel MS (October 1, 2026) A unified ensemble learning framework for electric motor fault diagnosis, thermal state prediction, and remaining useful life estimation. Computers and Informatics Advanced Online Publication 36–57.
IEEE
[1]Y. Kökver, N. Koçkar, A. Y. Selçuk, F. Ekinci, A. Orman, and M. S. Güzel, “A unified ensemble learning framework for electric motor fault diagnosis, thermal state prediction, and remaining useful life estimation”, Computers and Informatics, no. Advanced Online Publication, pp. 36–57, Oct. 2026, doi: 10.62189/ci.1974430.
ISNAD
Kökver, Yunus - Koçkar, Neşet - Selçuk, Ahmet Yasin - Ekinci, Fatih - Orman, Abdullah - Güzel, Mehmet Serdar. “A Unified Ensemble Learning Framework for Electric Motor Fault Diagnosis, Thermal State Prediction, and Remaining Useful Life Estimation”. Computers and Informatics. Advanced Online Publication (October 1, 2026): 36-57. https://doi.org/10.62189/ci.1974430.
JAMA
1.Kökver Y, Koçkar N, Selçuk AY, Ekinci F, Orman A, Güzel MS. A unified ensemble learning framework for electric motor fault diagnosis, thermal state prediction, and remaining useful life estimation. Computers and Informatics. 2026;:36–57.
MLA
Kökver, Yunus, et al. “A Unified Ensemble Learning Framework for Electric Motor Fault Diagnosis, Thermal State Prediction, and Remaining Useful Life Estimation”. Computers and Informatics, no. Advanced Online Publication, Oct. 2026, pp. 36-57, doi:10.62189/ci.1974430.
Vancouver
1.Yunus Kökver, Neşet Koçkar, Ahmet Yasin Selçuk, Fatih Ekinci, Abdullah Orman, Mehmet Serdar Güzel. A unified ensemble learning framework for electric motor fault diagnosis, thermal state prediction, and remaining useful life estimation. Computers and Informatics. 2026 Oct. 1;(Advanced Online Publication):36-57. doi:10.62189/ci.1974430

Computers and Informatics is licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0