Market Value and Transfer Fees in Youth Football: Determinants, Correlations, and the Role of the Relative Age Effect

Abstract

ABSTRACT Purpose: This article aims to examine the determinants influencing market value and transfer fees in youth football, assess the correlations between player characteristics and economic valuations, and elucidate how the Relative Age Effect (RAE) shapes these dynamics. By integrating findings from sports economics and developmental psychology, the study seeks to offer a comprehensive understanding of how intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect the financial dimensions of youth football. Method: This study is a review article that aims to shed light on the subject by examining the relevant literature. published studies were identified and evaluated through a systematic search using keywords and subject headings across academic databases including Google Scholar, PubMed and Web of Science. Results: The findings of the study highlight the complexity of valuation processes in the football industry, where both quantifiable performance indicators and latent systemic biases such as the RAE jointly shape early career trajectories and economic outcomes. While relatively older players often benefit from early selection advantages, longitudinal data indicate that these advantages may not necessarily translate into long-term success. In contrast, relatively younger players who persevere despite early disadvantages frequently exhibit greater psychological resilience and more consistent long-term performance. Conclusion: In conclusion, from a practical perspective, this review advocates for reforms in scouting and player development practices by promoting delayed selection, holistic player assessment, and dynamic feedback systems that consider individual developmental trajectories. These strategies have the potential to foster more equitable opportunities and minimize the misallocation of resources.

Keywords

• Relative Age Effect (RAE)
• Youth Football Economics
• Player Development and Scouting
• Talent Valuation Biases

Gençlik Futbolunda Piyasa Değeri ve Transfer Ücretleri: Belirleyiciler, Korelasyonlar ve Bağıl Yaş Etkisinin Rolü

Abstract

ÖZET Amaç: Bu çalışma, gençlik futbolunda piyasa değeri ve transfer ücretlerini etkileyen belirleyicileri incelemeyi, oyuncu özellikleri ile ekonomik değerlemeler arasındaki korelasyonları değerlendirmeyi ve Bağıl Yaş Etkisi’nin (RAE) bu dinamikleri nasıl şekillendirdiğini açıklamayı amaçlamaktadır. Spor ekonomisi ve gelişim psikolojisinden elde edilen bulguları birleştirerek, çalışma içsel ve dışsal faktörlerin gençlik futbolunun finansal boyutlarını nasıl etkilediğine dair kapsamlı bir anlayış sunmayı hedeflemektedir. Yöntem: Bu çalışma, konuyla ilgili literatürü inceleyerek konuya ışık tutmayı amaçlayan bir derleme makalesidir. Google Scholar, PubMed ve Web of Science gibi akademik veri tabanlarında anahtar kelimeler ve konu başlıkları kullanılarak yayımlanmış çalışmalar sistematik bir şekilde taranmış ve değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular: Çalışmanın bulguları, futbol endüstrisindeki değerleme süreçlerinin karmaşıklığını ortaya koymaktadır; burada hem ölçülebilir performans göstergeleri hem de RAE gibi gizli sistemsel önyargılar, erken kariyer yollarını ve ekonomik sonuçları birlikte şekillendirmektedir. Göreceli olarak daha yaşlı oyuncular genellikle erken seçim avantajlarından yararlanırken, uzunlamasına veriler bu avantajların mutlaka uzun vadeli başarıya dönüşmediğini göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, erken dönem dezavantajlarına rağmen sebat eden göreceli olarak daha genç oyuncular, sıklıkla daha yüksek psikolojik dayanıklılık ve daha istikrarlı uzun vadeli performans sergilemektedir. Sonuç: Sonuç olarak, uygulama açısından bakıldığında, bu derleme geç seçimi teşvik eden, bütüncül oyuncu değerlendirmesini ve bireysel gelişimsel süreçleri dikkate alan dinamik geri bildirim sistemlerini savunarak gözlem ve oyuncu gelişim uygulamalarında reform çağrısında bulunmaktadır. Bu stratejiler, daha adil fırsatların teşvik edilmesini ve kaynakların yanlış tahsisinin en aza indirilmesini sağlayabilir.

Keywords

• Bağıl Yaş Etkisi (RAE)
• Gençlik Futbol Ekonomisi
• Oyuncu Gelişimi ve Gözlem
• Yetenek Değerleme Önyargıları

References

1. Aguiar do Monte, P., & Lopes Filho, L. L. (2023). Intellectual capital and market valuation of footballers. Contabilidad y Negocios, 18(35), 123–140.
2. Bennett, K. J. M., Novak, A. R., Fransen, J., & Duffield, R. (2023). The prevalence of relative age effects and the influence of the talent pool size on Australian male and female youth football. Journal of Sports Sciences, 41(4), 457–468.
3. Bezuglov, E., Khaitin, A., & Nikolaev, D. (2023). Influence of the relative age effect on market value and performance in youth football: Evidence from Russian leagues. Journal of Sports Analytics, 9(2), 89–102.
4. Bezuglov, E., Morgans, R., Butovskiy, M., Emanov, A., Shagiakhmetova, L. R., Pirmakhanov, B., Waśkiewicz, Z., & Lazarev, A. (2023). The relative age effect is widespread among European adult professional soccer players but does not affect their market value. PLOS ONE.
5. Biermann, G., Klein, M., & Schlegel, M. (2024). Psychological resilience as a predictor of transfer value in elite youth football. European Journal of Sport Psychology, 19(1), 44–60.
6. Biermann, H., Memmert, D., Romeike, C., Knäbel, P., & Furley, P. (2024). Relative age effect inverts when looking at career performance in elite youth academy soccer. Journal of Sports Sciences.
7. Bolckmans, L., Lenoir, M., Musch, E., & Philippaerts, R. (2023). Profiling talented youth soccer players: The predictive validity of technical, tactical, physical, and psychological attributes. International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching, 18(1), 115–126.
8. Bolckmans, L., Perquy, K., Starkes, J. L., Memmert, D., & Helsen, W. F. (2023). The relationships between relative age effect, personality constructs and achievement level in soccer. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 5, 1226599.

9. Bozděch, M., Agricola, A., & Zháněl, J. (2023). The Relative Age Effect at Different Age Periods in Soccer: A Meta-Analysis. Perceptual and Motor Skills.
10. Bozděch, M., Musálek, M., & Süss, V. (2023). Early born advantage: RAE and physical maturity in Czech elite youth football. European Journal of Sport Science, 23(1), 121–133.
11. Figueiredo, L. S., Gomes, L. M. S., Da Silva, D. G., Gantois, P., Fialho, J. V. A. P., Fortes, L. S., & Fonseca, F. S. (2022). The relative age effect in Brazilian elite soccer depending on age category, playing position, and competitive level. Human Movement, 23(2), 112–120.
12. Furley, P., Memmert, D., & Hütter, M. (2016). The impact of relative age on coaching decisions in youth football. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 25, 36–42.
13. Furley, P., Memmert, D., & Weigelt, M. (2016). “How much is that player in the window? The one with the early birthday?” Relative age influences the value of the best soccer players, but not the best businesspeople. Frontiers in Psychology.
14. García-Rubio, J., García-Vallejo, A., Arenas-Pareja, M. de los Á., López-Sierra, P., & Ibáñez, S. J. (2022). From junior to elite in soccer: Exploring the relative age effect and talent selection in Spanish youth national teams. Children (Basel).
15. García-Rubio, J., Sánchez-Molina, J., & Cárdenas, D. (2022). Talent identification and RAE in football: Impact on youth international selection. PLOS ONE, 17(5), e0267890.
16. Helsen, W. F., Starkes, J. L., & Van Winckel, J. (2005). The influence of relative age on success and dropout in male soccer players. American Journal of Human Biology, 17(6), 764–770.
17. Mann, D. L. (2020). Approaches to help coaches and talent scouts overcome relative age effects. In A. L. Kelly & C. Bjorndal (Eds.), Talent identification and development in sport (pp. 159–171). Routledge.
18. Metelski, A. (2021). Factors affecting the value of football players in the transfer market. Journal of Physical Education and Sport, 21(2), 1150–1155.
19. Metelski, A. (2023). Age of top European football players when they started organized training and their value in the transfer market. Quality in Sport, 11(1), 98–104.
20. Pedersen, A. V., Aune, T. K., Dalen, T. van, & Lorås, H. (2022). Variations in the relative age effect with age and sex, and over time: Elite-level data from international soccer world cups. PLOS ONE.
21. Pérez-González, B., Cardona-Soriano, P., & Pruñonosa, J. T. (2023). A relative age effect (RAE) analysis of top European football clubs segmented by ownership models. Cogent Social Sciences.
22. Poza, C. (2020). A conceptual model to measure football player’s market value: A proposal by means of an analytic hierarchy process. Ricyde: Revista Internacional de Ciencias del Deporte, 16(59), 187–202.
23. Romann, M., Javet, M., Cobley, S., & Born, D. P. (2021). How relative age effects associate with football players’ market values: Indicators of losing talent and wasting money. Sports, 9(7), 99.
24. Romann, M., Rössler, R., & Faude, O. (2021). Relative age effect in youth football across Europe: A multi-national comparison of elite academies. European Journal of Sport Science, 21(6), 839–848.
25. Sánchez, M., Orgaz, B., Ramírez-Campillo, R., Nakamura, F. Y., Luis-Pereira, J. M., Carretero, M., & Sánchez-Sánchez, J. (2022). Factors associated with the market value of professional soccer players. Cuadernos de Psicología del Deporte, 22(2), 35–42.
26. Schorer, J., Deja, J., Steingröver, C., Baker, J., Loffing, F., Helsen, W., & Wattie, N. (2017). The association of two relative age effects and estimated money value in elite soccer. Frontiers in Psychology, 8, Article 850.
27. Sweeney, L., & Lundberg, T. R. (2024). Relative age and biological maturity-related selection biases in male youth soccer across different competitive levels within a national association. Science & Medicine in Football.
28. Sweeney, L., Cumming, S. P., MacNamara, Á., & Horan, D. (2022). A tale of two selection biases: The independent effects of relative age and biological maturity on player selection in the Football Association of Ireland’s national talent pathway. International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching.
29. Sweeney, L., de la Rubia, A., Taylor, J., & Bjorndal, C. (2024). Looking beyond relative age to understand relative advantage and disadvantage in talent development. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living.
30. Sweeney, R., & Lundberg, C. (2024). Growth trajectories and market valuation in adolescent footballers. Journal of Sports Sciences, 42(2), 201–213.
31. Tohoff, A., & Mechtel, M. (2023). Birth month bias and monetary valuation in youth football: A behavioral economics perspective. Journal of Economic Psychology, 94, 102624.
32. Tohoff, L., & Mechtel, M. (2023). Fading shooting stars – The relative age effect, misallocation of talent, and returns to training in German elite youth soccer. Social Science Research Network.
33. Toselli, S., Marzaioli, R., & Gualdi-Russo, E. (2022). Influence of biological maturation on market value in young soccer players. European Journal of Sport Science, 22(6), 811–818.
34. Toselli, S., Mauro, M., Grigoletto, A., Cataldi, S., Benedetti, L., Nanni, G., Miceli, R. D., Aiello, P., Gallamini, D., Fischetti, F., & Greco, G. M. (2022). Maturation selection biases and relative age effect in Italian soccer players of different levels. Biology.
35. Verbeek, J., Lawrence, S., van der Breggen, J., Kelly, A. L., & Jonker, L. (2021). The average team age method and its potential to reduce relative age effects. In Development models for sport talent identification and athlete development (pp. 131–148). Routledge.
36. Votteler, A., & Höner, O. (2017). Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the relative age effect in German youth football. European Journal of Sport Science, 17(3), 199–206.