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Küresel Kriz Sonrası Maliye Politikalarında Değişim ve Mali Tuzak Riski

Year 2014, Volume: 1 Issue: 40, 103 - 116, 01.01.2014

Abstract

2008 yılından bu yana maliye politikası uygulamalarına ilişkin üç farklı dönemden söz edilebilir. Birinci dönem, kriz sonrası Büyük Buhran döneminin bir benzerinin yaşanmaması için canlandırma paketlerinin uygulandığı dönemdir. İkinci dönem 2010 yılından sonra ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu dönemde artan kamu borçları nedeniyle canlandırma paketlerinin yerini kemer sıkma politikaları almış, mali konsolidasyonu hedefleyen politikalar uygulanmaya başlamıştır. Ancak söz konusu politika değişiklikleri global ekonominin durgunluktan çıktığı ancak cılız bir iyileşmenin sağlandığı bir dönemde yapılmıştır. Üçüncü dönem ise günümüzde yaşanmaktadır. Düşük büyüme oranları vergi gelirlerinin azalmasına neden olduğu için sıkı maliye politikası uygulamaları daha fazla daralma ihtiyacı yaratmakta, mali tuzak olasılığı ekonomileri tehdit etmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı esas olarak bu üç dönemin teorik gerekçelerini ortaya koymak ve mali tuzak riskini açıklanmaktır

References

  • Alesina, Alberto (2010) “Fiscal Adjustments: Lessons from Recent History” http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/alesina/files/fiscaladjustments_lessons-1.pdf
  • Alesina, A. ve S.Ardagna (2009).”Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending” NBER WP no.15438.
  • Alesina, A. ve S. Ardagna (1998). “Tales of Fiscal Contractions,” Economic Policy, 27,487-545.
  • Alesina, A.,S.Ardagna, RPerotti ve F. Schiantarelli (1999) “Fiscal Policy, Profits and Investment” NBER WP no.7207.
  • Alesina,P.ve R.Perotti (1997) “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 44, 210-48.
  • Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1995). “Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD countries,” Economic Policy, 21, 205-248.
  • Baker, Dean (2010) “The Myth of Expansionary Fiscal Austerity” CEPR Bertola, Giuseppe ve A. Drazen (1993) “Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining The Effects of Fiscal Austerity” AER, Vol.83(1), p.11-26.
  • Blanchard, Oliver (1990) “Comments on Giavazzi and Pagano” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 111-116.
  • Broadbent, B. ve K. Daly (2010) “Limiting the Fall-Out from Fiscal Adjustments.” Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Global Economics Paper 195.
  • Calcagno, AF (2012) “Can Austerity Work?” Review of Keynesian Economics, 0(1): 24–36.)
  • CESR. (2012) “Fiscal Fallacies: 8 Myths about the ‘Age of Austerity’ and Human Rights Responses.” Rights in Crisis Series Briefing Paper, July 2012. New York: Center for Social and Economic Rights.
  • Chirinko, R. (1993) “Business Fixed Investment Spending: A Critical Survey of Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results and Policy Implications” Journal of Economic Literature, 31,1875-1911.
  • Christiano L, Eichenbaum M and Rebelo S (2009) “When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?” NBER Working Paper No. 15394, NBER, Cambridge, MA.
  • Giavazzi,F.,T.Jappelli ve M.Pagano (2000) “Searching For Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence From Industrial and Developing Countries” NBER Working Papers no.7460.
  • Giavazzi, F. ve Pagano, M. (1990). “Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries,” in Blanchard, O. and Fischer, S. (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, MIT Press.
  • Giavazzi, F. ve Pagano, M. (1996) “Non-keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience,” Swedish Economic Policy Review, 3 (1), 67-103.
  • Hannsgen,G. ve D.Papadimitriou (2012) “Fiscal Traps and Macro Policy After The Eurozone Crisis”, Levy Economics Institute, Public Policy Brief, no.127.
  • ILO (2012) World of Work Report 2012: Better Jobs for a Better Economy. Geneva: ILO.
  • International Monetary Fund (2012) Fiscal Monitor, April 2012: Balancing Fiscal Policy Risks (World Economic and Financial Surveys).
  • International Monetary Fund (2010a) “Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation.” Economic Outlook, Chapter 3.
  • International Monetary Fund (2010b) Financial Sector Taxation. IMF’s Report to the G20. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
  • Jajadev, A. and M. Konczal (2010) “The Boom not the Slump: the Right Time for Fiscal Austerity”, The Roosevelt Institute.
  • Krugman, Paul (2012) “Blunder of Blunders”, The New York Times blog, 22 March.
  • Ortiz,I ve M.Cummins (2013) “The Age of Austerity: A Review of Public Expenditures and Adjustmet Measures in 181 Countries” South Centre WP.
  • Palley, Thomas (2009) “ The Fiscal Austeriy Trap” http://www.newamerica.net/files/Thomas_PalleyThe_Fiscal_Austerity_Trap.pdf
  • Papadimitriou, D.ve R.Wray (2012) “Euroland’s Original Sin” Levy Economics Institute, Policy Note (8)
  • Perotti, R. (1999) “Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad” Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(4),1399-1436.
  • Polychronıou, C.J (2013) “A Failure by Any Other Name: The International Bailouts of Greece” Levy Economics Institute, Policy Note (6)
  • Sutherland, Alan (1997) “Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?” Journal of Public Economics, vol.65, p.147-62.
  • Tcherneva R.P.(2006) “Chartalism and the Tax-Driven Approach to Money”, Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics içinde (edt. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer) 69-84,Elgar Publishing.
  • UN (2013) World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013. New York: United Nations.
  • UNCTAD (2011) Trade and Development Report, Post-Crisis Policy Challenges in the World Economy, United Nations Publications, New York ve Geneva.
  • UNCTAD (2013) Trade and Development Report, Adjusting to the Changing Dynamics of the World Economy, United Nations Publications, New York ve Geneva.
  • Wray, L.R.(2003) Understanding Modern Money: The Key to Full Employment and Price Stability. İngiltere: Edward Elgar.
  • Woodford M (2011) “Simple Analytics of the Government Spending Multiplier” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,3(1): 1–35.
Year 2014, Volume: 1 Issue: 40, 103 - 116, 01.01.2014

Abstract

Since 2008, the fiscal policy debate has gone through three phases. The first phase was dominated by a call for fiscal stimulus to avoid another Great Depression. The second phase, from 2010 onward, saw the focus shift to fiscal consolidation as high public debt started to loom large. This policy shift occurred despite a global economy that has not yet on a firm recovery path. The third phase may have begun, with weak growth fiscal austerity threatens to create a fiscal trap in which fiscal austerity lowers growth, thereby lowering tax revenues and necessitating more austerity. The purpose of this paper is to explain theoric causes of these three phases and to clarify the fiscal trap

References

  • Alesina, Alberto (2010) “Fiscal Adjustments: Lessons from Recent History” http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/alesina/files/fiscaladjustments_lessons-1.pdf
  • Alesina, A. ve S.Ardagna (2009).”Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending” NBER WP no.15438.
  • Alesina, A. ve S. Ardagna (1998). “Tales of Fiscal Contractions,” Economic Policy, 27,487-545.
  • Alesina, A.,S.Ardagna, RPerotti ve F. Schiantarelli (1999) “Fiscal Policy, Profits and Investment” NBER WP no.7207.
  • Alesina,P.ve R.Perotti (1997) “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 44, 210-48.
  • Alesina, A. and Perotti, R. (1995). “Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD countries,” Economic Policy, 21, 205-248.
  • Baker, Dean (2010) “The Myth of Expansionary Fiscal Austerity” CEPR Bertola, Giuseppe ve A. Drazen (1993) “Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining The Effects of Fiscal Austerity” AER, Vol.83(1), p.11-26.
  • Blanchard, Oliver (1990) “Comments on Giavazzi and Pagano” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 111-116.
  • Broadbent, B. ve K. Daly (2010) “Limiting the Fall-Out from Fiscal Adjustments.” Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Global Economics Paper 195.
  • Calcagno, AF (2012) “Can Austerity Work?” Review of Keynesian Economics, 0(1): 24–36.)
  • CESR. (2012) “Fiscal Fallacies: 8 Myths about the ‘Age of Austerity’ and Human Rights Responses.” Rights in Crisis Series Briefing Paper, July 2012. New York: Center for Social and Economic Rights.
  • Chirinko, R. (1993) “Business Fixed Investment Spending: A Critical Survey of Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results and Policy Implications” Journal of Economic Literature, 31,1875-1911.
  • Christiano L, Eichenbaum M and Rebelo S (2009) “When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?” NBER Working Paper No. 15394, NBER, Cambridge, MA.
  • Giavazzi,F.,T.Jappelli ve M.Pagano (2000) “Searching For Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence From Industrial and Developing Countries” NBER Working Papers no.7460.
  • Giavazzi, F. ve Pagano, M. (1990). “Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries,” in Blanchard, O. and Fischer, S. (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, MIT Press.
  • Giavazzi, F. ve Pagano, M. (1996) “Non-keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience,” Swedish Economic Policy Review, 3 (1), 67-103.
  • Hannsgen,G. ve D.Papadimitriou (2012) “Fiscal Traps and Macro Policy After The Eurozone Crisis”, Levy Economics Institute, Public Policy Brief, no.127.
  • ILO (2012) World of Work Report 2012: Better Jobs for a Better Economy. Geneva: ILO.
  • International Monetary Fund (2012) Fiscal Monitor, April 2012: Balancing Fiscal Policy Risks (World Economic and Financial Surveys).
  • International Monetary Fund (2010a) “Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation.” Economic Outlook, Chapter 3.
  • International Monetary Fund (2010b) Financial Sector Taxation. IMF’s Report to the G20. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
  • Jajadev, A. and M. Konczal (2010) “The Boom not the Slump: the Right Time for Fiscal Austerity”, The Roosevelt Institute.
  • Krugman, Paul (2012) “Blunder of Blunders”, The New York Times blog, 22 March.
  • Ortiz,I ve M.Cummins (2013) “The Age of Austerity: A Review of Public Expenditures and Adjustmet Measures in 181 Countries” South Centre WP.
  • Palley, Thomas (2009) “ The Fiscal Austeriy Trap” http://www.newamerica.net/files/Thomas_PalleyThe_Fiscal_Austerity_Trap.pdf
  • Papadimitriou, D.ve R.Wray (2012) “Euroland’s Original Sin” Levy Economics Institute, Policy Note (8)
  • Perotti, R. (1999) “Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad” Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(4),1399-1436.
  • Polychronıou, C.J (2013) “A Failure by Any Other Name: The International Bailouts of Greece” Levy Economics Institute, Policy Note (6)
  • Sutherland, Alan (1997) “Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?” Journal of Public Economics, vol.65, p.147-62.
  • Tcherneva R.P.(2006) “Chartalism and the Tax-Driven Approach to Money”, Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics içinde (edt. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer) 69-84,Elgar Publishing.
  • UN (2013) World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013. New York: United Nations.
  • UNCTAD (2011) Trade and Development Report, Post-Crisis Policy Challenges in the World Economy, United Nations Publications, New York ve Geneva.
  • UNCTAD (2013) Trade and Development Report, Adjusting to the Changing Dynamics of the World Economy, United Nations Publications, New York ve Geneva.
  • Wray, L.R.(2003) Understanding Modern Money: The Key to Full Employment and Price Stability. İngiltere: Edward Elgar.
  • Woodford M (2011) “Simple Analytics of the Government Spending Multiplier” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,3(1): 1–35.
There are 35 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Zeliha Göker This is me

Publication Date January 1, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2014 Volume: 1 Issue: 40

Cite

APA Göker, Z. (2014). Küresel Kriz Sonrası Maliye Politikalarında Değişim ve Mali Tuzak Riski. Çalışma Ve Toplum, 1(40), 103-116.

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